UNLV vs. Sam Houston 2025: Keys to the game and predictions

It’s the UNLV Rebels vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats in a 2025 Week 1 matchup as the Rebels take their 1-0 record on the road to Houston, Texas. UNLV, coming off a 38-31 victory in Week 0 over Idaho State, will look to remain undefeated on the year against a Bearkats team that fell to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 41-24.

It is a Friday night special in Week 1 of the college football season! Can UNLV correct the mistakes made inside the red zone and improve defensively? Or are the Rebels in for another shoot-out? This breakdown will give you what you need to know about this matchup.

UNLV Rebels vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats: Matchup History

This is the first-ever meeting between these two programs. With Sam Houston’s home facilities under construction, the game will be played at the Houston Dynamo’s MLS stadium, about 50 miles from campus.

UNLV’s last matchup against a Conference USA opponent came in 2023, when the Rebels beat UTEP 45-28. This game marks one of two non-conference road trips for UNLV, with a visit to Miami (OH) still ahead.

Sam Houston hasn’t had much history with the Mountain West, holding just a 1-4 record against the conference. In 2025, the Bearkats will see back-to-back Mountain West representatives, opening at home against UNLV before heading to Hawaii to take on the Rainbow Warriors.

UNLV vs. Sam Houston 2025: Keys to the Game and Predictions

Key Players for UNLV

Jai’Den Thomas carried the Rebels out of the cellar in their win over Idaho State last week with a three-touchdown performance. It was highlighted by a 70-yard run that injected life into both the home crowd and the UNLV offense.

Thomas finished with 147 yards on just 10 touches. It’s safe to say that without his effort, the Rebels might have ended up on the wrong side of history after struggling mightily early on.

Another bright spot for the Rebels in Week 0 was Jaden Bradley, who hauled in six catches for 131 yards, including two big splash plays. Sam Houston State’s secondary was picked apart in Week 0 by Western Kentucky’s Matthew Henry, who posted seven catches for 148 yards and a touchdown. Bradley could be in line for similar success in this matchup.

Anthony Colandrea showed more with the UNLV offense than Alex Orji did in Week 0. Head coach Dan Mullen has been mum on naming the starter moving forward, hinting that both could come in and see snaps in specific sets. With that being said, Colandrea brings a good balance of throwing and running to the offense.

UNLV went just 4-for-7 in the red zone during Week 0, leaving plenty of room for improvement. I’ll be looking for Colandrea to handle the majority of the possessions, with Mullen likely dialing up more creative play calls inside the 20 to boost efficiency. Sam Houston, meanwhile, allowed Western Kentucky to go a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone in their loss last week.

Key Players for Sam Houston

It was essentially a one-man show in the loss to Western Kentucky. Returning quarterback Hunter Watson did what he could, scrambling for 91 yards and a long touchdown while completing 19 of 30 passes for 209 yards. However, a costly interception stalled the Bearkats’ momentum.

This offense was stuck in the mud for most of the game against the Hilltoppers. A brutal 2-for-11 mark on third down kept the Bearkats punting and even forced them into risky fourth-down tries deep in their own territory. With that said, the final score looks a bit deceiving after a closer look.

Sam Houston was within three points, trailing 27-24 with just over three minutes left in the third quarter. That’s when Watson’s interception into double coverage put Western Kentucky in total command. From there, the Bearkats’ defense couldn’t keep the Hilltoppers out of the red zone. The offense was left facing third-and-long after third-and-long in the fourth quarter, unable to find a spark to climb back into the game.

In this matchup with the Rebels, I’ll be keeping a close eye on Alton McCaskill. The big, bruising back powered his way to 72 yards and a touchdown in Sam Houston’s Week 0 loss. With UNLV struggling to contain the run against Idaho State, McCaskill will be a tough assignment to bring down.

On the outside, the Bearkats will stick with their Air Raid approach. Watson should again look to Elijah Green, who was his most reliable connection in the season opener.

Keys for UNLV to Win in Week 1

UNLV’s defense could not stop a nose bleed in the win over Idaho State, allowing 555 total yards to an FCS squadron at home. If it was not for the four takeaways and Jai’Den Thomas, who knows what could of happened as the Rebels trailed by 10 early in the game.

If UNLV wants to get off to a stronger start on the road, the defense has to improve in open-field tackling and eliminate the busted coverages that plagued them a week ago. I don’t expect Sam Houston State’s offense to look as lethargic as it did in their loss. And with the Bearkats leaning on an Air Raid attack, UNLV’s secondary is going to be tested. Giving up over 500 yards total again would not bode well for the Rebels.

Dan Mullen has built his reputation on creative play calling, but the key in this game will be about efficiency, not flash. UNLV can’t afford to settle for field goals, what they need are effective red-zone plays that finish drives. A sharper performance inside the red area would mark a big step forward from Week 0, especially if they can do it on the road.