The UNLV Rebels are back at home to welcome in the Utah State Aggies in a key Mountain West contest. With only three games remaining in the regular season, each outing is more vital than before. And if the Rebels have Mountain West title aspirations, more wins are required.
With a 7-2 record and a 3-2 record in the Mountain West, Dan Mullen’s Rebels are poised to make the most of their final games at home. The Utah State Aggies will attempt to find some luck on the road, as they sit winless in road games this season.
Let’s dive into how this one may shake out on Saturday.
UNLV Rebels vs. Utah State Aggies: 2025 College Football Preview
In 2025, Utah State has struggled severely on the road. Sitting at 0-4 on the road this year, two of those four losses were against ranked opponents in Texas A&M and Vanderbilt earlier in the year.
UNLV has played in high-scoring, drama-filled games inside Allegiant Stadium all year long, with a lone home loss. Dan Mullen’s Rebels will look to make the most of their final outings in front of the home fans.
Matchup History
Last year, UNLV headed out to Logan, Utah, where they beat the Aggies 50-34. Despite that victory last year, Utah State holds an 18-9 lead in the all-time series over the Rebels.
These meetings are usually within a touchdown, as the last 12 of the 27 meetings have all been decided by seven points or less. On Saturday, this will be a chance for UNLV to defeat Utah State in Las Vegas since 2008, which was before the Aggies joined the Mountain West Conference.
Keys and Predictions
Key Players for UNLV
Jai’Den Thomas had himself a day this past weekend in the win over the Colorado State Rams. Thomas exploded for 131 yards off of seven touches, and scored a touchdown. He was the explosion Rebel fans loved to see as their star had a statement game on the road.
It is no secret that when Thomas gets his touches, he is going to be able to make the most of those efforts. Thomas has been a key player in these previews before, but in the heart of November and in the middle of the push for a Mountain West crown, he is the key player for the Rebels on Saturday.
He is going to have a chance to see a lot of success on Saturday, as Utah State has struggled to stop the run this year. The Aggies have allowed, on average, 178 yards on the ground to their opponents this year, coming in the bottom three of rush stops in the Mountain West.
I will be looking for Jai’Den Thomas to add onto an already great season with a big game against the Aggies. With more than 10 touches in this ball game, Thomas may be able to add to his highlight reel and open up more for other weapons for the UNLV offense.
Key Players for Utah State
Utah State had some fun on Saturday in the win over Nevada, and quarterback Bryson Barnes was fun to watch in that 51-14 victory. Barnes holds the keys to this Aggie offense. On Saturday, he was 20 for 27, for 288 yards and three touchdowns.
When you have a trusted quarterback like Barnes, that is always going to make that position key in any game. But as the Aggies look for their first road win of the season, and to truly spoil a lot of UNLV’s long-term plans, he will be a crucial part of their success.
I will be watching Barnes and how he handles third-downs in this game. UNLV has the best defense on third down, allowing opponents to convert only 27-percent of the time. If Barnes can sustain drives and keep things moving, Utah State will have a chance in this one.
2025 Game Preview: How UNLV Wins vs. Utah State in Week 9
UNLV home games are usually drama-filled and leave fans on the edge of their seat for four quarters. This is a team that is fitting for their location on the strip. Dan Mullen is not afraid to roll the dice and swim with the sharks, but with every win becoming more important, look for UNLV to control the trenches and get out of the shoot-outs if they can.
I really love the opportunity for Jai’Den Thomas to build off of a fantastic outing last Saturday. If UNLV’s game plan is to run in between the tackles and control the ball and take the clock with them, they should be able to come away with a victory.
But if there is the risk factor of wanting to stretch the field early and often, the back-and-forth nature of this game could quickly come together. Utah State is no stranger to scoring points; in fact, Utah State and UNLV are the two highest-scoring teams in the conference.
If Utah State can give Bryson Barnes time and come up with key stops they may notch their first road win of 2025. But, if UNLV’s rushing attack eats early, the home crowd will rally around the Rebels’ defense and keep Mullen’s hopes of a Mountain West title game alive with a win.
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