Last week I touched upon some of my favorite early fantasy football sleepers as we head into the month of June. You can see my quarterback list for that here. Now we turn our attention to who may be some of the biggest busts going into the 2022 season. To be honest, outside of the first player listed, this was an incredible hard group to navigate this early in the year. But let’s get to it.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Honestly, I don’t think I’m doing anything unique by picking Rodgers here. Basically everyone I’ve talked to has Rodgers taking a step back this year, and for good reason.
He lost his top two receivers this offseason and may be without his favorite TE target to start the year. On top of that, the Packers’ ground game looks to be in full force with the double-headed monster of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
Yes, the Packers did draft Christian Watson in the second round. No, I don’t think that changes anything this season.
Aaron Rodgers is an elite quarterback, but even elite quarterbacks need some help. I don’t expect Rodgers to fall off a cliff in terms of production, but from a fantasy football standpoint, I don’t see him landing in the top-7 again this season. The Packers front office has essentially refused to help Rodgers for years, and I believe this is the season it bites them in their rear.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
If you’re familiar with my previous work, you’re probably rolling your eyes seeing Tannehill on this list. For a long time I haven’t been a believer in his passing prowess; at least in terms of being an elite quarterback. Last year he finished as the QB13 in fantasy football. I expect him to fall further than that going into 2022. And no, it isn’t because they drafted Malik Willis.
Like Rodgers listed above, Tannehill also lost his best passing option in AJ Brown. The Titans tried to mitigate that by drafting Treylon Burks. Funny enough, Burks’ best player comp is AJ Brown himself. That said, the transition to becoming a superstar for Burks may not be so easy. The team also picked up Robert Woods. Woods is an incredibly underrated receiver, but is coming off an ACL injury and nearing the dreaded age 30 mark.
While it seems quite redundant for me to say this, I expect the Titans to once again lean on Derrick Henry in an expanded workload going into this season. With a rookie WR and two new additions in Austin Hooper and Woods, I expect a slow start to the season that ultimately limits Tannehill’s fantasy football upside.
I won’t be surprised if I have to eat crow on this take, but Tannehill’s QB play and consistency in fantasy football is one thing I’ll never trust due to the volatility of both.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
I can already hear the voices now. ‘Mahomes will never be a bust in fantasy football’.
Well, it depends on how you define the term. We all know that Mahomes has QB1 upside, and has finished with back-to-back QB4 finishes. That said, it’s quite easy to see that the team around him isn’t as talented as his previous years.
If you know me, you know that I absolutely love JuJu Smith-Schuster. But let’s be honest; he’s no Tyreek Hill. Neither is Skyy Moore. Or MVS. Or Mecole Hardman. Quite frankly, I’m not sure what the Chiefs were thinking when they moved on from Hill. Add to that the addition of Ronald Jones, who really doesn’t fit the system at all, and I think we start to see a scheme change coming for Kansas City going forward.
Andy Reid is an amazing coach so I won’t question his motives. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see the team steer away from having Mahomes play his backyard football style. To be honest, I think it could lead to a much more efficient offense from the Chiefs. But in the same breath, I think the trade-off will be a semi-drop in production from Mahomes from a fantasy football standpoint.
While calling him a ‘bust’ is a bit harsh, I don’t know if I see him finishing as a top-5 fantasy football quarterback this season. For a QB being taken within the top three at the position, anything other than a top-5 finish, to me, would constitute a bust. While I expect to eat crow with my Ryan Tannehill take, you can feel free to laugh at me completely for this one.
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
You’re probably reading this and wondering why I’m even mentioning Ryan; who finished as the QB20 last season. Well, it’s because I wouldn’t be shocked if it got worse. While Frank Reich mentioned he didn’t want to rely on the running game as much as he did last season, you would think that would mean retaining Carson Wentz instead of a near 40-year old Matt Ryan.
Outside of Michael Pittman and rookie Alec Pierce, the Colts don’t have any real pass-catchers at WR or TE. It’s a big reason why the expectations for Nyheim Hines are so high this year. That said, that means Matt Ryan is likely to be nothing more than a game-manager at this stage in his career.
To be honest, that’s what the Colts need; in terms of real life football. In terms of fantasy football, however, don’t be surprised to see him float near the bottom half of the QB2’s this season. Even if the team does decide to steer away from leaning completely on the shoulders of Jonathan Taylor, it’s hard to imagine Ryan doing anything worthwile in the 2022 season. Especially when he’s nearing QB1 draft status in redraft leagues according to FantasyPros rankings.
