In my last article I looked at some early busts at the wide receiver position for fantasy football. This time we’ll be looking at the final position group – tight ends. With how bizarre the tight end landscape is, this was honestly harder than I’d originally imagined.
As a reminder this is only for the 2022 NFL season. Without further to say, let’s get into it.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
When the Patriots signed both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith in the offseason, it was always a guessing game as to who would be the top dog in the offense. Last season, it was Henry. While there’s a good chance he could be the team’s TE1 again, I’m quite hesitant to believe he’ll replicate his 2021 numbers.
A big reason Henry finished as a TE1 was due to his 9 touchdowns. While I think he could still hover around the 5-7 TD mark, there’s a couple reasons for my hesitant nature.
- Jonnu Smith was also paid a big contract. His usage will increase given the lack of run-blocking prowess of Smith.
- The team signed Devante Parker. An underrated receiver who will eat into the production on the offense.
Henry is being drafted at TE13 right now, but I think he finishes more along the TE18 mark. His TD dependent ways will come back to bite him this year.
With how unstable the TE position is in terms of the top-24, there won’t be huge ‘busts’ outside of injury, in my opinion. But nonetheless, I expect Henry to perform below expectations this season.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
I could probably copy and paste my arguments above for my reasoning for Knox being on this list; as him and Henry are in quite a similar position. Like Henry, Knox was largely touchdown dependent last season with 9 touchdowns. He broke into the fantasy football world with force, and many managers were happy to have lucked into that production.
Like the Patriots, the Bills also brought in some new weapons that will take away from the looks of Knox. On top of that, every fantasy football manager and their brother is expecting the ‘Gabe Davis breakout’. While I’m a little hesitant on that as well, there’s no question that there’ll be more mouths to feed in Buffalo.
If I’m a betting man, I’m staying away from Knox this season; at least at his ADP.
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
This offseason, Fant was involved in a trade with Drew Lock and Russell Wilson, sending Fant and Lock to Seattle in one of the most bizarre trades of the offseason. While Fant seems to think the offense’s scheme does wonders for tight ends, I tend to disagree with him heavily.
In Denver, Fant had the benefit of playing with a bad quarterback and an oft-injured wide receiver group. In Seattle he won’t be as lucky. Tyler Lockett has been one of the healthiest receivers in the NFL during his career, and DK Metcalf is an athletic specimen who I don’t see Fant taking targets away from.
On top of that, Drew Lock already isn’t a ‘lock’ to be the starter in Seattle. While that’s more embarrassing for Lock than for Fant, it could lower Fant’s value even further.
The Seattle offense hasn’t produced a top-12 TE since Jimmy Graham was catching passes from Russell Wilson. Fant is already trending upward nearing TE1 ADP in fantasy football drafts. I’m going to follow the history and avoid Fant at ADP and look elsewhere.
Rob Gronkowski, Free Agent
This is the pick that I’m expecting to eat a lot of crow on. Gronk is arguably one of the greatest tight ends of all-time, who would be playing with arguably the greatest quarterback of all-time. In only 12 games last season, he was able to finish at a top-10 tight end in fantasy football. So why am I fading him?
While most seem optimistic that Gronk will return as long as Brady is playing, I’m not as optimistic. Unlike Brady, Gronk doesn’t love football in the same way. He doesn’t enjoy the rigor of training for NFL seasons and the hardship it has on his body playing at tight end. Quite frankly, I don’t blame him, either.
If you’re drafting Gronk at near TE1 ADP, I can’t say that I blame you. That being said, I’ll be staying far away from him at his ADP in 2022. In my opinion, there’s a greater chance of him not suiting up, than him suiting up; and I’m not going to take that chance given his current ADP in fantasy football leagues.
Could the return be worth it? Sure. But with that said, if you’re drafting with a plan in place, your team will be set, without having to rely on someone like Gronk; and could take value at another position going forward.
