Previously I looked at some of my early fantasy football busts at the running back position. This time, we’re looking at wide receivers. To be honest, I think this is the year we could see some drastic change. With quarterbacks moving and WRs being traded, we’ll see plenty of risers and fallers at the position. So let’s get down to business.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle was a record-breaker last year – taking the league by storm and putting up massive numbers; finding himself finishing at WR14. I wasn’t completely sold on the player until last season. Unfortunately, now that I am sold on him, his value could have potentially taken a huge hit.
This offseason the Dolphins made a massive trade, acquiring elite WR Tyreek Hill. Hill is essentially everything that Waddle wants to become. They have the same exact playing style, except Hill is on a massive contract with big expectations. There’s no question that Hill will be the WR1 in this offense, and it remains to be seen if the offense can support two top-24 WRs.
While I think Waddle has the talent to potentially stay in the top-24, I’m not sold on the offense as a whole. With a new head coach and offensive system, it remains to be seen how this offense will look. The team signed a plethora of running backs, including Chase Edmonds to a big contract. Not to mention, they have an elite pass-catching option at tight end in Mike Gesicki as well.
The cards just don’t seem to be on the table for Waddle this season; especially at his ADP. I’m staying clear of him in 2022 for fantasy football, even if I have to eat crow on it.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
While Johnson has seemingly always had a problem with drops, that’s not why he’s on my fantasy football ‘busts’ lists this season.
With Ben Rothlisberger retiring, there’s a gaping hole at the quarterback position. Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett could be the option, but it remains to be seen how that dynamic will work out.
Johnson is in a contract year, but this is potentially the worst time for him to be in one. The Steelers will rely heavily on Najee Harris, even moreso than last year. On top of that, they drafted George Pickens, a gutsy WR who is being massively underrated due to his fall in the draft. A fall which was mostly due to ‘maturity’ issues.
Johnson finished as a WR1 this past season, but the likelihood of that happening again are slim given the changes to the quarterback position which will affect the offense as a whole. I’m still all the way in on him in dynasty, but for fantasy football redraft, I’m staying away.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
To be honest, when I looked at FantasyPros 2022 fantasy football ADP, I was shocked to see Godwin at WR18. Godwin is coming off of an ACL tear he suffered in Week 15, which also included damage to his MCL. It’s a known fact a majority of players who return from ACL injuries have a decrease in performance. In some cases, more than 60 percent of wide receivers will never return to their previous form, in terms of fantasy football production.
This is bad news for managers who have Chris Godwin. In redraft formats, Godwin is a player I’m staying away from completely. Of course he was a stud prior to injury, but that’s exactly what that means. Prior to injury. No one knows how he will perform post-injury, and reports have already come out that Godwin is more behind on his recovery process than previously thought.
Godwin will probably play football at some point this season. But he’s not going to touch his ADP and I’d be shocked if he performed like the player we knew; at least, for this season.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
As a big McLaurin fan, I’m hoping that this pick bites me in my rear by the end of the season. McLaurin really gives me Allen Robinson vibes; in his ability to perform with subpar quarterbacks around him. And as fate would have it, he currently has the best quarterback that he will play with so far in his career in Carson Wentz. So why exactly am I fading him?
At the moment, McLaurin’s ADP is as WR16. McLaurin has never reached higher than WR20 in a season. So why are people drafting him so high?
They mistakenly believe that Carson Wentz will increase the performance of McLaurin where others haven’t. While that could be true to an extent, it’s could also faceplant completely. Wentz has a history of targeting tight ends and running backs exclusively, regardless of who he had at WR. I don’t expect this to change much, if at all.
With the likelihood of McLaurin’s ADP rising the closer we get to the NFL season, the more I see him as a back-end WR2 than a low-end WR1. While this isn’t the biggest ‘bust of busts’, it’s still one in my eyes. And, one I’d hope to eat crow on.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
I don’t understand why there’s still people on the Michael Thomas train when other fantasy football players have been forgotten for less. Thomas is going to be three years removed from his overall WR1 status, and it seems people are still clinging on to that hope. As of now, his ADP is WR20, and I think that he won’t come anywhere close to that this season.
Thomas turned 29 in March, and is facing the downhill slope that all WRs will face. What’s more prevalent though, is his remarkable injury history in the past two seasons; only playing seven games total. As of this writing, Thomas still isn’t even on the field for training camp.
This offseason the Saints brought in Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry. Both great route runners, with Landry being exceptional in the slot. Even if Thomas was somehow able to stay healthy all season, I have my doubts about him returning value at his ADP.
Considering his ADP, there’s literally dozens of WRs I would take over him, in dynasty and fantasy football redraft. Don’t be sucked into past production, especially when it’s two years in the past. Don’t set your fantasy football team up for failure before the season even begins. It’s time to move on.
