In my last article, I looked at some way too early sleepers at the quarterback position for fantasy football. This time, I’m taking a look at running backs. I’ve got to be honest, this was harder than I thought it would be.
The running back landscape in the NFL is one with drastic change. It’s rare to see consistent players, even moreso with the NFL leaning towards a committee approach now more than ever. I’ll do my best to steer you in the right direction. So instead of talking your ear off, let’s get down to it.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Putting David Montgomery on this list was difficult for me. If you’ve followed me at all, you’d know that I was never quite high on the Bears RB. That said, there’s too many variables working in his favor this season for me to continue my bias.
Despite the Bears completely overhauling their staff, they still are quite a dysfunctional mess. They released Tarik Cohen after multiple injuries, and outside of Khalil Herbert, there isn’t anyone challenging Monty for touches. The team let Allen Robinson walk in free agency and didn’t do nearly an efficient enough job improving that wide receiver group led by Darnell Mooney.
Monty has never finished outside of an RB2 in fantasy football. On top of his 200+ rushing attempts on a yearly basis, he’s also shown profiency as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.
He’s also in the last year of his contract before becoming a free agent. This is when most NFL teams will run their RBs into the ground. I expect the same to happen to Monty. While he isn’t your prototypical ‘sleeper’, I think he has a real chance at a top-10 finish this season, thus vastly exceeding his ADP.
Nyheim Hines, Indianpolis Colts
Hines was a favorite to repeat his 2020 success last season, only for Jonathan Taylor to completely go bananas as the overall RB1. This put a damper on those expectations, but I’m expectating Hines to once again be plenty involved in the Colts offense this season.
Both head coach Frank Reich and GM Chris Ballard have stated they want to use Hines more often given his excellent pass-catching abilities. As a pure runner, Hines has a low floor, but can once again be a monster in PPR leagues. The Colts drafted Alec Pierce, but outside of him and Michael Pittman, the team doesn’t have too many threats in the passing game. I’m expecting the Colts to use Hines in creative ways, reinvigorating his fantasy football value.
An interesting note as well is that Hines production every other year eerily mirrors itself. His 2018 and 2020 seasons in which he was fantasy-relevant are nearly identical, as are his 2019 and 2021 seasons where his production wasn’t so great. While that sample size isn’t the greatest indicator of success, it’s worth taking a shot on Hines this season.
Isaiah Spiller, Los Angeles Chargers
The Colts let Justin Jackson walk in free agency, and let’s be honest, no one is worried about Joshua Kelley or Larry Rountree. Spiller found himself in a great landing spot in LAC, and is on the fast-track to being Austin Ekeler’s backup.
On its face, that doesn’t sound quite appealing, until you realize how many times Ekeler was substituted out when the team was in the redzone, and on multiple drives as the team tried to protect their valuable asset.
Spiller is a great runner, and an underrated pass-catcher. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the team utilize him in the redzone and other areas, giving him RB2 appeal in a dynamic offense. And, on the off-chance Ekeler goes down, that value skyrockets. Nevertheless, Spiller is worth the investment and could have an instant impact on the field this season.
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers truthers may hate me for this, but I’m all-in on the price of Henderson going into this season. Not only because of the unliley chance that Akers returns to form completely; but because Henderson was a productive player when on the field. With Sony Michel gone and no real competition for touches, Henderson’s value has only increased.
DH has back-to-back seasons as a top-36 running back on limited touches. That’s not exactly something to overlook when seeking value late in drafts. In a scorching hot offense like the Rams, that value is crucial. Not only as a handcuff, but with potential standalone value.
The likelihood of Akers being a workhorse are slim to none in my opinion. Given the history of NFL players with Achilles tears, I’m putting my money on Henderson being a factor this season.
