Week 1 is here and now it’s time to take a look at some of the best and worst matchups in my Week 1 Fantasy Matchup Guide. This article will take a look at the points per game allowed by each opponent. For Week 1, I will be using the final 2022 rankings as 2023 data is still too random until we get concrete information on these defenses. I will highlight some fantasy matchups to target and avoid. I will not go into further detail on the superstar players.
*The graphics below will show the player in question. The data under them highlights their opponent and how many points per game they gave up to that position in 2022. The number next to their name is their matchup rank. Rank 1 is the easiest matchup, Rank 32 is the toughest matchup. Pts/Game data taken from Full PPR leagues at Sleeper.
Quarterbacks
Matchups to Target: The top six fantasy matchups at quarterback are a mix of must-start superstars and some QB2 options. Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence are all must-starts – obviously. It gets interesting with the other three.
Jared Goff should be an easy start in an opening night shootout with the Kansas City Chiefs. With the Detroit Lions openly discussing a contract extension for the 28-year old, you can expect him to come out slinging the ball in Week 1.
Derek Carr is the one that’s a tough call. He gets a juice fantasy matchup with the Tennessee Titans but is still risky on a Saints team in flux. He can be started if you have to, but don’t bench a top-12 quarterback for him.
Baker Mayfield rounds out the top six. He faces a porous Minnesota Vikings pass defense that struggled in 2022. Despite this, bench Mayfield if you have other options. A scary offense and total lack of production means that even in a prime matchup he can’t be trusted unless you are desperate.
Matchups to Avoid: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson all have bad fantasy matchups. Start them anyway. The other three options are mainly Superflex-only options.
Kenny Pickett, Jimmy Garoppolo and Mac Jones are unplayable in Week 1 in 1QB leagues anyway, but for Superflex leagues where you may be forced to play them, we will discuss.
Pickett is the only one I would start willingly. His fantasy matchup is bad, but the Pittsburgh Steelers offense should be able to keep pace with the San Francisco 49ers and put up points.
Garoppolo and Jones on the other hand are last-ditch options and should not be started. They are bad options in the best of matchups, they are QB3’s in week one.
Running Backs
Matchups to Target: None of the superstar running backs find their way into the top-six fantasy football matchups. Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon are the best of this bunch and should easily see mid-range RB1 production. JK Dobbins is a sneaky pick to start off the season with a solid RB1-level performance against the league-worst Texans’ offense. Start Dobbins confidently. After him, is where it gets risky.
Cam Akers should return solid RB2 value in an easy fantasy matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, and can be started confidently.
Antonio Gibson gets the Cardinals’ defense and is a risky RB2 play. I love the talent, but what the Commanders’ coaching staff chooses to do with this backfield is a mystery. Gibson is a nice flex option, but risky as an RB2.
Javonte Williams is the lone back in the top group that I would sit. It remains unclear if he will even be available for Week 1. If he is, it’s unlikely he will be up to full speed. Sit Williams and wait for further injury updates.
Matchups to Avoid: Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley get the superstar treatment. Ignore the fantasy matchups and play them anyway. Even in a bad fantasy football matchup, they are top-15 running backs. The next two options are both split backfields and should be avoided to start the season anyway.
The New Orleans Saints will sport Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams, while the Philadelphia Eagles will start Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell and D’Andre Swift. Even with the upside of these two offenses, they are best left on the bench in tough matchups, with unclear situations.
James Conner and Najee Harris are both RB2 plays that should see enough volume to overcome the bad matchup. Just don’t expect them to have a high ceiling with almost no touchdown equity this week.
Wide Receivers
Matchups to Target: First we see a couple of prime fantasy options. The Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both get great matchups. Chris Olave is a surefire start every week; but as of now, Michael Thomas cannot be trusted. As for the Bucs, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans can be trusted as WR2 options, even with quarterback uncertainty.
Diontae Johnson and Drake London are excellent options as WR2’s. George Pickens can be used as a boom-or-bust WR3.
Where things get truly chaotic is with the Chiefs and New York Giants’ receivers. Both teams get ideal fantasy matchups, but deciding which of their receivers to start is going to be a nightmare in Week 1. If you have a strong feeling about which Chiefs or Giants receiver is going to emerge as the WR1, by all means, start them. I, however, will be avoiding these two teams until we have some type of definitive pecking order.
Matchups to Avoid: Cooper Kupp (now-injured) and Davante Adams are both superstars on bad offenses, with bad matchups in Week 1. With Kupp injured, you can avoid this difficult decision, but Adams should be started regardless.
Stefon Diggs has a brutal matchup, he too gets the superstar treatment. Start him regardless.
Terry McLaurin is the toughest decision in the bottom row of matchups. We don’t know how the Commanders’ offense will move the ball with Sam Howell under center, or how much Jahan Dotson will demand in target share. Despite all this and a tough receiver matchup, I would still start McLaurin as his usual, unexciting WR2.
Rashod Bateman and Kendrick Bourne are both easy sits. I’m not starting any Patriots receiver and the only receiver I wish to start on the Ravens is Zay Flowers; but in Week 1 against a tough matchup, I prefer to sit all Ravens.
Tight Ends
Matchups to Target: TJ Hockenson gets the obvious nod. As far as the other five options go, it’s a real game of Russian roulette. None of them are great options, but all get ideal matchups.
I prefer Tyler Higbee where I can, and Juwan Johnson is a decent low-end TE1 against the Titans if you need to start them.
As far as Logan Thomas, and Jake Ferguson go, I prefer to sit all of them, even in these matchups. The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders both seem to have some uncertainty around their tight end room.
Matchups to Avoid: I give very few tight ends the superstar treatment. The fantasy matchup typically dictates everything for me at tight end. None of the six tight ends with the worst matchups are must-start options. Therefore, I prefer other options to them.
If you drafted Darren Waller, Pat Freiermuth or Dalton Schultz as your TE1, feel free to start them, but temper your expectations and treat them as low-end TE1s.
Trey McBride and Chigoziem Okonkwo are both solid, young tight ends. Sit them both in Week 1. Both offences have too much uncertainty, and neither has proven to be a full-time player as of now.
Tyler Conklin is a must-bench. The New York Jets are loaded with weapons. In a brutal matchup for tight ends, he is unlikely to be useful.
Kickers
Matchups to Target: Kicker and defense are my most streamed positions. It’s all about the fantasy football matchups. I will start basically any kicker in the right fantasy matchup, so if they are in the top six, start them.
Daniel Carlson is easily the best choice of these six. If you drafted him, it will pay off this week. The other five are all startable as well.
Chase McLaughlin and Jason Sanders are reliable options and can be played in these matchups without question.
The final two of Joey Slye and Cade York will be scary, but in the end, both should keep you on pace with the kickers in the rest of the league. Brandon Aubrey is a rookie for the Cowboys and is a total wildcard, but has a good matchup. Play all six of them.
Matchups to Avoid: On the flip side, we see the bad matchups. Jake Elliott, Greg Zuerlein and Greg Joseph all have tough matchups, but all are likely too good to sit or cut for someone else. Play all three and hope their offenses stall out a few times, leaving them with chip-shot field goals.
Younghoe Koo is tough to sit. If you drafted him, you likely can’t afford to sit or cut him. Play him and hope the Atlanta Falcons’ offense starts clicking with Desmond Ridder under center.
Nick Folk and Chris Boswell are both on below-average offenses and both have terrible matchups for kickers. Sit them both and move on.
Team Defense & Special Teams
Matchups to Target: Wow! The Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars are juicy options in Week 1. They both face rookie quarterbacks. Start them both easily.
The Seahawks and Saints also get prime matchups, but both the Titans and Los Angeles Rams have enough firepower to cause issues should they get loose. The Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers are where it gets a bit dicey.
The Raiders get a Denver offense that struggled all year, but with the talent on the roster, they could easily explode at any time. The same can be said about the Packers matchup with the Chicago Bears. Justin Fields may not have much around him, but on his own, he could inflict major damage on any defense at any given moment.
Matchups to Avoid: Avoid the Thursday Night DSTs. This Thursday Night affair should be a shootout, so bench the Lions and Chiefs. The Jets also figure to face a shootout with the Buffalo Bills and should be sat when possible as well.
The New England Patriots do not figure to be in a shootout; they are going to be in a blowout instead. Sit the Patriots defense, regardless of where you drafted them. The Eagles are going to take out their Super Bowl loss on the New England DST.
The Indianapolis Colts were potentially taken outside the top-12 defenses, so they should be sat if you have better options. The Jaguars are a high-flying offense that the Colts won’t be able to stop. Sit the Colts.
The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, have potential. I like the Panthers as a sneaky 2023 DST sleeper; and there is no guarantee that the Falcons offense is going to turn into a juggernaut with the addition of Bijan Robinson. Desmond Ridder is a game manager and doesn’t typically turn the ball over, so the turnovers may not be there, but this game should be low-scoring. The Panthers are situationally dependent. Play them, if you don’t have a better option.
If you would like to take a closer look at our rankings, head over to www.theleaguewinners.com and check out our redraft and dynasty rankings.
