We are officially in the heart of best ball season with the NFL not that far away, and news broke recently with Jonathan Taylor reportedly wanting out of Indianapolis.
How Far Will Jonathan Taylor’s Best Ball Value Fall?
Best ball ADPs are always very reactionary, especially when roster moves are allowed. Look at Alexander Mattison since Dalvin Cook‘s release and Darren Waller since his trade to the Giants. Both saw their values skyrocket, but Taylor has been on a slow decline since the first Underdog draft dropped on February 10th. Taylor was a fringe first-round pick at that point with an ADP of 11.6. His ADP is now in the middle of the second round at 18.3, before this trade request.
The objective of this article is to determine where Jonathan Taylor’s best ball ADP is headed in the coming days. As Jim Irsay said, a trade will not happen. Is that a bluff? Will Taylor consider holding out? Can he find himself in a good spot, perhaps an even better spot than the Colts? These are just some of the many questions to consider when drafting Taylor this year.
This many question marks for someone currently going in the second round of best ball drafts is less than ideal. So it begs the question, how far will he fall?
I think Taylor will end up near the start of the third round behind Tony Pollard and Derrick Henry. Now, the biggest question is will Taylor fall behind Rhamondre Stevenson? And with another running back potentially joining the fold, I can’t see him getting to the Josh Jacobs/Breece Hall tier. And both Jacobs and Hall have their fair share of concerns at the moment as well. That would put Jonathan Taylor’s best ball ADP around 27 overall, which is a staggering 16-spot drop since drafts started this year. But, given this news, it seems warranted.
Is His New ADP a Value?
Another question would be, is he a value at that 27 overall spot? I would believe so!
Taylor is still one of the better backs in the league, on the Colts or not, and is not too far removed from a RB1 overall season. Quenton Nelson also had his worst season as a pro last season. He should return to form this year, revitalizing the rest of the offensive line.
Is he a risk? He sure is. I will not deny that, but you do not cash well in tournaments, like those on Underdog, without taking some big swings at talented players with lower ADPs. And, while I do think he is a value, I do not think his ADP will rebound unless there is a quick solution to this mess. And with Jim Irsay’s quotes, I doubt a solution will happen anytime soon.
The moral of the story is people will become more hesitant to select him, considering he is going near top quarterbacks and receivers like Chris Olave and Tee Higgins. So look for Jonathan Taylor’s best ball ADP to drop, and do not be afraid to take a risk on this situation.
