On draft day, most were certain Bijan Robinson would be a top-15 pick. The question was whether there would be two running backs drafted in the 1st round. Prior to the draft, Jahmyr Gibbs was mocked at the end of the 1st round or the start of the 2nd round. With the eighth pick, the Atlanta Falcons took Arthur Smith’s dream in Bijan Robinson. The real shock would come when just four picks later. The Detroit Lions would make the surprise pick of the draft when they took Gibbs 12th overall.
Now after the dust has settled, it’s forgotten just how big of a deal this is for Jahmyr Gibb’s fantasy football outlook. Not just for dynasty, but for redraft this season as well.
Jahmyr Gibbs & His NFL Comparables
One of the biggest concerns I’ve seen about Gibbs is his size and workload. If we are just looking at his carry numbers by the end of his rookie season – that could look scary. What if I told you both Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara had less than 125 carries as rookies and still finished top 10 for fantasy football? With Gibbs’s strong receiving prowess, CMC and Kamara make for a nice comparison.
Of the nine running backs selected top-15 in the last ten NFL drafts, only one had more receptions in their final year in college than Jahmyr Gibbs. That player would be Saquon Barkley. Barkley would end up getting 121 targets in his first year in the NFL.
Running backs that can catch passes prove to be valuable in fantasy football leagues. One such case is Danny Woodhead. Woodhead finished as the RB3 in 2015 with less than 100 carries on the season. Don’t fade an elite pass-catching running back because you don’t think they’ll get the volume.
Volume, Volume, Volume
Speaking of volume, that brings me to my next point. Running backs selected in the top-15 in the NFL draft are uncommon. We’ve only seen nine since 2012. Before this year’s draft, Saquon Barkley was the last RB drafted that highly – which was five years ago!
I decided to see how many opportunities each first-round running back was given in their rookie year. I took each backs’ opportunities and created an average. The average came out to exactly 300, which is an incredible number of opportunities for a rookie.
I do not expect Jahmyr Gibbs to hit 300 opportunities – and he doesn’t need to. The lowest of the seven(not counting Bijan and Gibbs running backs with top 15 draft capital was Melvin Gordon. He had 219 opportunities in his rookie season and played in just 14 games. The next lowest is Christian McCaffrey at 230 opportunities. That led to an overall RB10 season in PPR leagues.
The point is that Jahmyr Gibbs doesn’t need a 300-opportunity season to succeed in fantasy. If I had to predict, I would expect him to play 17 games this year. If he averages 10 carries and five targets per game, that puts him at 255 opportunities. That would be quite enough for him to finish as a top-10 running back in fantasy football.
Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Football Outlook
All these rookies prior to Jahmyr Gibbs check the boxes for NFL production, but has that translated well for fantasy production in their rookie year? Of course, it has! Six of the seven running backs with top 15 draft capital over the last 10 years went on to post top-10 rookie seasons – and two of them finished top-3. This even includes Trent Richardson, who turned out to be a terrible NFL running back. His success in fantasy football gives insulation for fantasy managers wanting to draft Gibbs in the top-10.
You also might be wondering who didn’t finish the top-10.
That would be Melvin Gordon. Gordon finished as RB48 on the season, with terrible touchdown luck. He is the only rookie in NFL history to be given 200 touches and not score a single touchdown. Given these numbers, and the success of the Detroit Lions this past year, I wouldn’t worry about touchdowns for Jahmyr Gibbs – even at his size. Production leads to fantasy points; and with one of his best abilities being a pass-catcher, expect a Christian McCaffrey-type rookie season from Gibbs.
Conclusion
All signs point to a huge rookie season for Jahmyr Gibbs. Past trends show an even brighter fantasy football season for him. Although I don’t see top-3 upside in the cards for Gibbs, I expect him to finish anywhere from RB6-10 for fantasy football. I also expect a high floor, with 5-6 targets per game, being in an explosive offense. When it comes to running backs, you should never fade good draft capital. Fade Jahmyr Gibbs at your own risk.
