Wisconsin vs. Illinois 2025 Preview: Can the Badgers Pull Off the Upset?

The Wisconsin Badgers (3-7) welcome the No. 21-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3) to Madison with a familiar coach on the opposite side of the field in Bret Bielema. Bielema coached at Wisconsin from 2006-2012, finding great success, winning three Big Ten titles. Can the Badgers upset the Illini, led by the former Badger coach? Or does Illinois come into Camp Randall and leave with a victory? Let’s break it all down in our 2025 Wisconsin vs. Illinois football preview.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: 2025 College Football Preview

Series History

Wisconsin leads the all-time series against Illinois 45-38-7. Over the past 10 meetings, the Badgers have gone an impressive 8-2 and have a 1-1 record against Illinois since Bielema became head coach before the 2021 season.

Wisconsin won the most recent meeting back in 2023, 25-21, behind 149 rushing yards and a touchdown from Braelon Allen.

Another interesting tidbit is that former all-time great Wisconsin running back James White is an assistant running backs coach at Illinois. He was just named the head coach at Benet Academy, starting next season.

The Badgers will be looking to have their win total reach 46 against Illinois come late Saturday night.

Illinois Key Players

Illinois is led by senior quarterback Luke Altmyer, who has thrown for 2427 yards, 21 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Altmyer is a very calm and steady presence under center for the Illini and gives them a wealth of experience at the position. He’s not going to wow you by any means, but he is rock solid and has sneaky athleticism. He has the ability to pick a defense apart. However, if you can generate pressure Altmyer has struggled.

Illinois has struggled at times to protect Altmyer, with a middle-of-the-road pressure rate allowed. They also are bottom-third in the FBS in sack EPA, at -42.493.

The Illini have a two-headed monster at the running back position in Kaden Feagin and Ca’Lil Valentine. Both backs have more than 450 rush yards on the year, and Feagin leads the team in rushing touchdowns (6). However, Illinois struggle at times to create explosive run plays, as Feagin and Valentine average just 4.3 and 4.4 yards per carry, respectively.

On the outside, Hank Beatty is the Illini’s go-to target with 54 receptions and 758 yards on the year. Beatty has 25 more receptions than Hudson Clement, who is second on the team in receptions (29). Collin Dixon leads the receiving core with five touchdowns and is second on the team with 423 yards.

Illinois has some offensive talent. It’s whether or not they can produce for a complete game that is the question.

Defensively, Matthew Bailey leads Illinois with 60 tackles, with 47 of them being solo. Miles Scott is second on the team in tackles with 48. Gabe Jacas, who is one of the best defensive players in the Big Ten, leads the team with seven sacks. Jacas has also added 33 total tackles and two forced fumbles on the year.

Illinois can struggle defensively and has been pretty average the entire year. Illinois comes into Saturday middle of the road in defensive EPA at -0.033. In their three losses, they have given up an average of 46.3 points per game.

Wisconsin Key Players

Offensively, it starts and ends with Carter Smith on Saturday. In his first collegiate start last week against Indiana, Smith held his own. Smith threw for 98 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. He looked calm and confident, especially in the second half. Smith handled himself nicely against a great Indiana defense.

If Wisconsin wants to see itself pull off the upset on Saturday, Smith needs to find more success in the passing game and use his legs more. His legs were a huge focal point in the win against Washington, but they were slightly taken away against Indiana. Fewer designed runs for Smith were called, which led to offensive stagnation, especially in the second half. With Smith already the fourth quarterback used for Wisconsin this season, Luke Fickell and Jeff Grimes may have been protecting him a little, which is a possibility.

However, Smith must use his legs if the Badgers want to be victorious on Saturday.

Running back Gideon Ituka’s availability for Saturday is up in the air after being carted off the field last week with a concussion. My gut tells me he will be unavailable, so that leaves Darrion Dupree as the lead back. Dupree has struggled this year, but a lot of it was due to poor offensive line play.

Dupree has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries, which has been a theme this year for the entire Badger team. If Dupree is healthy and running hard, he can be a game-changer. It will be even better if Ituka is also able to play on Saturday.

On the outside, there’s no one more important this week than Trech Kekahuna. With no downfield passing attack from the Badgers, Jeff Grimes has resorted to end-arounds and jet sweeps to generate offense. Kekahuna is the Badgers’ best and will be used heavily on Saturday.

Defensively, it’s the same players as last week, in Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano. Both freshman backers struggled a little more last week than in previous weeks, which is to be expected against a team like Indiana. They also can’t be expected to rack up 15+ individual tackles every week, either.

However, Posa and Catalano will be the key. Not only for the remainder of this season, but also hopefully for years to come. Getting off blocks and limiting explosive runs is a must.

Christian Alliegro returned to the field from injury for a couple of plays last week against Indiana. There were some interesting defensive play calls and alignments with Alliegro, Posa, and Catalano on the field at the same time. Expect more of that this week, with Catalano as the “Mike” with Posa and Alliegro almost playing in the rover position.

Lastly, it’s the weekly shoutout to Mason Reiger, who never takes a play off and has four sacks on the year. As is the case every week, his ability to win and create pressure on the quarterback is key.

2025 Game Preview: How Wisconsin wins vs. Illinois in Week 13

Wisconsin opened at around 9.5 points underdogs, with the line dropping down to 7.5 in favor of Illinois. The over/under is sitting at 41.5, depending on which book you look at.

Wisconsin’s path to victory is simple, and it’s the formula they used to beat Washington: make the game ugly. Besides the USC victory in Week 5, Illinois hasn’t looked all too impressive. The Badgers have a chance to pull this upset off on Saturday, they just need a couple of things to go their way.

In the same way the Badgers dominated the Huskies in the field position battle, the same needs to happen against the Illini. Like Washington, Illinois has one of the worst defenses in the country in giving up quality drives and letting opponents score on those drives. The ability for the Badgers to win the field position game and to put some quality drives together are the key.

Illinois has a good offense, but it matches up nicely with Wisconsin’s defense. Wisconsin needs to have a conscious effort to keep everything in front of them and rally to the ball. Luke Altmyer is a veteran quarterback and not much will confuse him. However, the ability of Mike Tressel to dial up exotic formations will help this Badgers defense on Saturday.

Offensively, the Badgers will have no downfield passing attack, which is why the field position game is so important. The offensive line has been playing better towards the back half of the season, and they’ll need to have another good game on Saturday. Carter Smith will need to throw for at least 150 yards, and the team as a whole will need to rush for more than 150 yards.

Illinois also struggles in third-down defense, ranking almost dead last in defensive success rate. If the Badgers can extend drives against a defense that also struggles in giving up quality drives, they have a chance.

The Badgers can’t let Gabe Jacas take over the game, and there needs to be some sort of offensive variety. Luke Fickell has another tall task in front of him – motivating and preparing players for a game that doesn’t mean much on paper. However, it is a rivalry game, senior night, and under the lights against Bret Bielema, so there is that.

Expect the Badgers to come out inspired and play hard. Time will tell if Wisconsin can pull off another shocking upset at home against a ranked team. However, they have a chance, and the matchup, in a way, is favorable. Expect them to hang around and take this game into the second half, and potentially make this game interesting heading into the fourth quarter.