I’ve Got 99 Problems, but RB Ain’t One – A Zero RB Draft Blueprint for 2021

To be fair, I’d never truly understood the ‘zero running back’ strategy for fantasy football until this offseason. I’d always thought it was some obscure drafting conspiracy theory that shrouded the truth about the reality of fantasy. But after digging in over the past few months, I am now firmly entrenched in a land with no RBs time and time again by the end of my way-too-early mocks and drafts in 2021.

Now, I don’t know what you take me as, or understand the intelligence that this strategy has, but I didn’t start out a ‘Zero RB’ truther. Like some who have adopted Flat Earth or Simulation Theory, I began by trying to debunk the off-beat scheme of roster assembly.

But an overwhelming thirst for RBs in the early rounds by nearly everyone, coupled with some logical deductions associated with the strategy, has me screaming, “F the critics! You can kiss my whole-“ …well… you get my point.

It’s time to figure out how viable this method is; both to reinforce my own confidence in executing the strategy in 2021 redraft leagues, and to try and explain how this approach can work for you.

And, as a brief point of note, all direct and indirect reference to Average Draft Position (ADP) was taken from Sleeper App’s June 1st report – specifically, the site’s redraft PPR data.

To be honest, if you’re having RB problems in-season, I feel bad for you, son. Make sure you don’t put yourself in that difficult situation by following a few of these guidelines to help make Zero RB work for you.

And, hey, if you don’t like the strategy or ideas presented here, you can press fast forward… to the end of the article. (You can view the flip side of Zero RB, “Zero WR”, here)

Do Not Force a Zero RB Strategy

I cannot emphasize this point enough. You shouldn’t be forcing any strategy during a draft, especially if you have the opportunity to draft a top back. Caution with Zero RB should be observed in half-PPR leagues, and Standard leagues practically demand that you grab a few RBs at the top. But, in full-PPR, Zero RB is fully on the table, assuming draft position isn’t an issue.

What do I mean? Well, if I’m drafting in a Top-4 slot (in a 1QB league), I can’t advocate taking a pass-catcher over the production monsters at RB. This is where the term “Modified Zero RB” actually makes sense. We might be a little nuts for fading RBs, but we can’t go crazy.

If Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara are on the board, they are no-brainer selections in 1QB formats. Running backs like Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Ezekiel Elliott are also at least considerations over the top pass-catchers on the board in the early to mid-first round.

But, typically, if I’m picking at the seven spot or later; I’m smashing a wideout or even Travis Kelce with my first selection and not even thinking twice about the decision. From that point on, Zero RB is a-go while the RB fiends in my draft are on the floor, scratching again at Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon at the turn.

With the community coming back around on the early TE strategy (harkening back to a simpler time when Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham routinely dominated the late-first and early-second rounds), Kelce is now a first-round option and likely won’t make it beyond pick 15 in nearly all redrafts by September.

Likewise, passing on that second-tier grouping of RBs I mentioned above allows you to select a Top-3 wideout, like Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs or even an Aaron Rodgers-less Davante Adams. Calvin Ridley or DeAndre Hopkins could also move up into the top tier by August.

I’d take the guaranteed volume of any of these tier-one wideouts and Kelce over the tier-two backs. But again, don’t force it.

When drafting at the five or six, it still may be necessary to grab Taylor, Zeke or the RB you believe may earn the lion’s share of rushing and passing down work. Many will argue for Henry or Chubb to be included here, but in reality, the only thing that’s gon’ happen is Imma get to clappin guys who catch the ball in PPR formats. This is also why I’m not thrilled about these two, or Jonathan Taylor in the middle of the first, despite their talent and clear path to elite production.

Collect the Value That Falls to You

In the early-to-mid-second round of snake drafts, the top RBs are gone and the likes of Austin Ekeler, Cam Akers and Antonio Gibson are still on the board. Don’t fall in love with backs in this tier just because the value drop-off after they’re gone is significant. Instead, prepare to smash ‘Draft’ on a Top-5 wideout that has fallen too far, Travis Kelce, or even George Kittle or Darren Waller.

The positional advantage of a top tight end has been well documented, so I won’t dive into that here; but the crux of the argument is that only Kelce, Waller and Kittle are guaranteed to regularly put up elite numbers based on their expected volume and talent level.

T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and others can and will ascend this season, but discovering who will emerge is a crapshoot at best – and a losing proposition. If I’m forced to bet on one of them, it’s Pitts by a mile because of his profile and situation. I would go so far as to put him in his own tier as the clear TE4 this season.

Look, I ain’t passed the bar, but I know a little bit. If trading away a target monster like Julio Jones just over a month after drafting Pitts isn’t a clear sign he’s going to see a ton of volume in year one, I don’t know what is.

But back to your Zero RB draft.

You should be looking to take the value of Hopkins or A.J. Brown in the second round of your draft. Mike Evans or Allen Robinson should be your targets in the third round, and Amari Cooper or D.J. Moore in the fourth to capitalize on falling value at wide receiver and fill out your starting positions. This is assuming you’ve taken one of the big three tight ends listed above in these first few rounds as well.

Know Your League’s Roster Settings

In leagues that start three wide receivers and/or employ multiple flex spots, Zero RB really gets a chance to show its true value to owners. Rolling out Kelce, Hopkins, Evans, and Cooper each week is a big boon to production, but there is potentially one more flex spot to fill on many rosters.

If so, you have to continue to resist the urge to take an RB. Even if your league only starts two wideouts and one flex, wide receiver should still be your focus.

In fact, Zero RB actually demands that you take five or even six wideouts, one elite tight end, and a top-end quarterback to solidify every other position before grabbing your first back. You need to go all-in on pass-catchers in the draft. Here’s why:

Let’s assume a starting roster of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE and 2 Flex spots. In this case, you can start four wideouts each week. However, with bye weeks factored in – and of course others dealing with those bye weeks – it helps to have at least five receivers in your stable who are selected within the first seven rounds.

This provides you with elite production through bye weeks, less expected injury turnover on your roster, and the matchup-play flexibility to maximize your weekly output. Plus, if your WR5 blows up and achieves his upside early on, he’s a clear trade candidate to balance out your roster.

Ideally, I prefer to build with a TE from the first three rounds – depending on your draft position – a QB from the first six rounds, and WRs everywhere else. But, remember: as with every other draft strategy, you’re looking for where value falls and not looking to force a selection. If the elite TEs or QBs go early, you’ll have to pivot and choose one of these positions to punt until the later rounds.

Draft RBs with a Role and Upside

When going Zero RB, you are scouring ADP and the draft board for running backs who are late-round values. That sounds like a huge gamble (and it is), but here’s what I’ve been looking for from round nine on:

• Backs who will get a share of the overall rushing workload
• Have TD upside
• Can carry the load if the guy in front of them goes down.

This strategy naturally brings me to a few players:

AJ Dillon (Sleeper Redraft PPR ADP: 127.8)

I’m blasting AJ Dillon’s name out there in seemingly every piece I write this offseason. I’ve even gone so far to proclaim that he’s an RB2 in 2021. I’m crazy for this one, Rick. While I won’t back off from that take here, you can consider him an RB3 lock for the upcoming season and still draft him at a value in the 9^th or 10^th round.

Assuming Aaron Rodgers leaves the team, Dillon is primed for an increased workload as the second man up in a run-heavy attack. I fully expect Aaron Jones to handle the load on passing downs and get the majority of touches.

But that being said, Jamaal Williams was heavily involved in the running and passing game last season earning 119 rushes and 35 targets. And all of this work came while Rodgers was busy earning MVP honors for his passing production and Jones was finishing Top-10 at the position in both carries and targets.

If Rodgers leaves, we can all agree that the Packers’ overall offensive production will take a hit. However, I’m seeing most of that coming from the passing game. If Rodgers returns, Dillon will have that much more opportunity and efficiency in an elite offense.

All this said, Dillon should have the volume in place to return nice value from a mid-round selection.

Jamaal Williams (Sleeper Redraft PPR ADP: 166.6.8)

Dan Campbell is a throwback kinda guy. The kinda guy who gets excited about his players ripping out opponents’ kneecaps with their bare teeth. And if kneecaps go flying in 2021, the NFL is happy because that’ll ensure that advertisers give ‘em more cash for ads.

But what do head coaches like Campbell do? They jump around like an excited child when the draft’s best offensive lineman falls to them at the 7^th overall selection because they want to run the football – at all costs.

Sure, Jamaal Williams’ game isn’t pretty. But he’s more than serviceable and able to handle the load. He won’t be asked to do so with D’Andre Swift there, but Williams is a guy who will see enough volume and potential red zone usage to become a fantasy football value.

Jared Goff has plenty of new weapons around him, and we know he’s not afraid to sling the rock. But I’m sure Campbell knows that this team will need to run a ball-control offense to try and stay in games early by leaning on the run. If D’Andre Swift is to be the third-down back while siphoning off early down work in an Alvin Kamara-esque role, Campbell is likely to insert Williams on early downs as the 1B to Swift and utilize him in short yardage situations as well.

Gus Edwards (Sleeper Redraft PPR ADP: 170.8)

How is Gus Edwards this low? I have no idea, but all I can say is that he is guaranteed to outperform his current ADP. While I expect Edwards’ value to climb as we near the season, I do believe he’ll still end up too low. If you can grab him in the 10^th round by the end of August, this one is a no-brainer for me.

Edwards has been nothing but incredibly efficient in his career to date. Finishing 7^th in Player Profiler’s True Yards Per Carry and Big Run Rate metrics from 2020, Edwards has a knack for finding and exploiting the massive running lanes. Plus, he has seen 130+ carries in each of the last two seasons as the clear-cut secondary option. Though, like Dillon, his target share is minimal.

Edwards can return excellent value as a 1B running game option for one of the league’s run-heaviest teams. Don’t miss out on him… ‘cause some fools just love to perform.

I’m leaving my Zero RB drafts with at least two of these three guys right now. If those players somehow go earlier than expected, here’s a few more names I like (with the same June 1st ADP):

• Trey Sermon (107.6)
• Tony Pollard (141.7)
• Darrell Henderson (160.5)
• Phillip Lindsay (184.8)
• Marlon Mack (223.1)
• Rashaad Penny (233.9)

Of course, pass-catching backs can also provide matchup-based values. In this case, I might also scoop up:

• Nyheim Hines (130)
• J.D. McKissic (172)
• Tarik Cohen (174.8)
• James White (201.7)

Though these backs are not ones I’m targeting because their roles do not come with league-winning upside, I may still need to diversify my RB stable and grab one or two to add depth; especially if my other target options fall through.

Final Thoughts

Employing a Zero RB strategy absolutely tests your ability to recognize late-round values at RB. Will all of these backs pan out in 2021? Do I look like a mind reader, sir? I don’t know.

What I do know is that the much-discussed RB dead zone from rounds three through seven is real; so these are the pieces you’re left with to fill out your roster. Further, it’s an exercise in patience as you work back through the draft system with the riff-raff… again. The backs I’ve listed above do not inspire confidence but, if they did, they wouldn’t be available so late in drafts.

Your perseverance will be tested as well, especially this year. RBs continue to fly off the board with more than one team likely to take three backs in the first three rounds. Your leaguemates will ask, “Did you forgot about RBs?” or “You really picked AJ Dillon as your RB1?” Ignore them. They’re thinking your strategy makes no goddamned sense, and trying to push you to take a running back. Resist the urge.

Anyway, you know the type of roster they’re likely to end up with: loud as a motorbike after the draft, but wouldn’t bust a grape in an in-season fruit fight.

Zero RB is a more demanding strategy than most others to be sure. But the way I see it, you have two choices in your drafts this season. Pull over the car and select RBs early, or bounce on that devil and put the pedal to the floor; grabbing wideouts, a top TE and an elite QB instead. This approach should set up your rosters for success, especially in 2021 redrafts where it seems guys can’t get enough of early RBs.

In the end, your roster may have 99 problems in-season, but replacing an early-round RB due to injury or ineffective play won’t be one of them.