In this dynasty segment we take a look at the Los Angeles Chargers’ Austin Ekeler and his dynasty value going forward.
Austin Ekeler was a hot commodity among fantasy football owners prior to this season, and for good reason.
In 2019 Ekeler finished fourth in PPR formats, and was one of the only four running backs to surpass 300 total points on the season. He was a league-winning player that year, given a pre-season rank of RB30 and an average ADP of 61. For someone like me, it only proved what I already knew; that he was an elite playmaker at the position.
Sitting behind Melvin Gordon to start his career, it didnt’ take long for Ekeler to show on film that he was not only a better pure runner than Gordon, but also the better pass-catcher.
After the 2019 season, he finally got his chance. The Chargers didn’t retain Melvin Gordon, and Ekeler earned himself a four-year, $24.5 million contract.
Ekeler started the season in typical fashion, ranked as the sixth RB in PPR formats during the first three weeks of the season. He averaged over 5 yards per attempt and was 2nd behind only Alvin Kamara in YAC (minimum 10 targets).
Unfortunately, Ekeler would face a severe hamstring injury during the week four matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that would cause him to miss eight weeks of the season.
For fantasy football owners who drafted him early, this was a tough pill to swallow. By the time he came back, most of these teams would be out of playoff contention. But the ones fortunate enough to make it, they would reap the benefits Ekeler provided in the previous year.
Austin Ekeler came back from his injury with a vengeance.
From weeks 12 to 16, Austin Ekeler was the #7 RB in PPR formats, averaging roughly 17 FPPG (fantasy points per game). During that time he was T-1st in receptions with J.D. McKissic, led all RB’s in YAC, and was T-3rd in yards after catch per reception (minimum 15 targets).
As a runner he was no slouch either. Despite not reaching the end zone, he still ranked 11th in the league in 10+ yard runs and managed a healthy 4.44 yards per attempt average.
So what’s Austin Ekeler’s dynasty value going forward?
With Brandon Staley has the new head coach of the Chargers (and Joe Lombardi as the OC), many people are selling the value of Ekeler. Personally, I think the opposite should be done.
Despite former head coach Anthony Lynn being favorable to running backs in fantasy football, we often saw very poor decision making involving Ekeler’s usage.
In no universe should Kalen Ballage (who was released by the Jets earlier in the season) be taking snaps away from Austin Ekeler, yet Ballage was deployed on over 25% of the offensive snaps once Ekeler returned from injury.
The likelihood of Brandon Staley and Joe Lombardi being parsimonious with Ekeler’s usage is slim.
During Lombardi’s two years as the offensive coordinator in Detroit, we saw quarterback Matthew Stafford target his running backs more than in any other time during his career despite the team having a below-average rushing attack during that span.
It’s safe to say Austin Ekeler is a better RB than those deployed during that time in Detroit, and as such there shouldn’t be any drop-off in production from him going forward. If anything, it means that he will continue to be on pace for 100 targets while receiving a healthy workload in the run-game.
This season, I see Austin Ekeler picking up where he left off in 2019; as a top RB play in PPR formats. He’s the third best pass-catching RB in the league behind Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey, and will provide modest production as a runner as well.
In dynasty formats, I have Ekeler as a Top-15 RB. Going into the season at 26 years old, he should be a formiddable player throughout the duration of his contract with the Chargers.
His skill as an elite pass-catching back shouldn’t go unnoticed, and that difference among his peers should bloat his value in these formats; which is why I wouldn’t part with him for anything lower than a mid-1st.
It’s easy to be obsessed with the shiny new toy, but proven players create fantasy football champhionships. His usage, skill, and opportunity make Austin Ekeler a ‘buy’ in all formats.
