Quarterbacks can gain and lose value based on who their team signs or drafts at the other skill positions. But for the most part, their rankings will stay steady for the majority of the offseason. The hiring of coaches and coordinators is important to the QB position and those dominoes have already fallen. A good coach can make or break a QB. Just look at 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. His system had Mr. Irrelevant (Brock Purdy) averaging 19.2 fantasy points per game this season according to FantasyPros. Let’s take a look at my buy, sell and hold for the QB position in dynasty.
Buy – Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
It’s hard to find a quarterback that’s worth paying up for. I talked about Kyler Murray in a piece before the fantasy playoffs and I stand by that take. He is a buy! If you are looking for a bit of a risk, look no further than last year’s first overall pick Bryce Young. Young is currently sitting as the dynasty QB20 on KeepTradeCut. That’s a steep drop from his peak as the QB9.
Why the drop off? Well, the Carolina Panthers were 2-15 last year and Young threw for only 2,877 yards and had a TD/INT ratio of 11/10. He only averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game, which puts him in the same range as Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Kenny Pickett. There isn’t really anything positive to take out of last year.
As a community we’re very quick to write off athletes when they don’t perform right away, especially when we spend high draft capital on them. The Panthers put themselves in a tough position, giving up significant capital to move up for Young. However, I think hiring Dave Canales as their new head coach could be an important move in Young’s potential turnaround.
Canales spent many years on the Seattle Seahawks staff working with Russell Wilson. Wilson, like Bryce Young, is a shorter QB. Wilson spent many years as a top fantasy producer. Canales helped Geno Smith have a late career breakout, as he was the QB8 in fantasy points per game in 2022 with 18.5. Then, Canales turned around and helped Baker Mayfield become relevant again as a dynasty QB, as he averaged 16.7 ppg this past season.
Canales is going to have his work cut out for him. For starters, the Panthers wide receivers don’t match the likes of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Panthers have a fair amount of cap space to bring in a free agent and they still have a high second round pick, No. 33 overall. Young will need more help if he is to turn things around.
At his current price, it’s worth the risk to invest in Young. When you add in age, draft capital, etc., there’s no quarterback available who can up his value more. He’s valued around a late first round rookie pick, but that isn’t likely to get it done. Don’t be afraid to add a bit more, like a future second rounder, to up your chances. Even if you don’t believe in the talent, a half-decent season will up his value greatly to resell next offseason. That makes him a great dynasty QB buy. The Panthers invested too much to give up on him in just a couple of seasons. They brought Canales in to work with him. Patience will be needed.
Sell – Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Despite missing a good chunk of last year, Joe Burrow is still ranked as the dynasty QB6. Did you know that Burrow only averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game last year? That was good for 26th among quarterbacks, and was 1.4 points behind his backup Jake Browning.
Burrow wasn’t fully healthy to start the year after suffering a calf injury late in July. He later suffered a season-ending wrist injury against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11. At 27, Burrow is still young, but he’s now had season-ending injuries in two of his four years in the league. That’s a bit concerning for a non-mobile QB. He even dealt with a knee injury in the 2022 playoffs on the Bengals‘ run to the Super Bowl. Injuries aren’t a reason alone to sell, as they are fluky, but let’s look at another reason.
Burrow’s best season came in 2022 when he averaged 21.7 points per game, good for fourth best among QBs. That’s great, but he threw 35 TDs and nearly 4,500 yards. Can a healthy Burrow, with the help of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, exceed those numbers? Probably, but there’s no rushing upside to Burrow’s game. His fantasy production will always be dependent on his arm. In 2021 he had similar stats, averaged 20.5 fantasy points, but finished only as 10th best in points per game. When he is on the field, he should bring a level of consistency to your lineup. However, without the rushing upside, his ceiling is much lower than other QBs around his value.
At the price of QB6, I believe it’s worth it to downgrade and pick up another piece. Burrow will have dominant years, I don’t doubt that for a second. However, the NFL game is changing, and in fantasy, mobile QBs are king. You can go and pick up Kyler Murray+ for Burrow right now. Murray has put up similar numbers and is a full year younger. Safety is good, but if you can tier down from Burrow and help your team at another position, you ‘ll be doing yourself a favor.
Hold – Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff has put up two of his best seasons, averaging more than 17 fantasy points per game, in each of the last two years. His best season came back in 2018 with the Rams, where he averaged 19.4 ppg. The Lions have done a great job of surrounding him with talent and Goff has done his part slinging the ball around. Goff is only 29 years old and should get an extension from the Lions soon. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is sticking around, which is great news and should help Goff continue to hover around the top 12 in fantasy production.
Goff has back-to-back seasons as a top 10 fantasy QB, yet only ranks as the dynasty QB19. His home and away splits might have something to do with that.
Home stats: 4,712 yards, 42 TDS, 9 INTs, 108.7 Rating, 67% Completion Rate
Away stats: 4,301 yards, 17 TDs, 10 INTs, 88.5 Rating, 64% Completion Rate
Most of the names above Goff in the dynasty QB rankings are younger and provide more upside with mobility. He has yet to have a season where he averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game. I don’t think you’d be happy with any return right now, especially if you’re looking for draft picks. Therefore, I’d hold and lock him into my QB2 spot for another season. He isn’t going to move up too much, but you will get more value trading him in season than now. The only way I would move him is for an established player at another position.
Look over your teams and decide what changes need to be made. NFL free agency is right around the corner and before we know it, the NFL Draft will be here. This is a great time to find some value before it’s too late. Good luck this offseason!
Sheldon Hand
Sheldon Hand is an elementary school teacher. He started writing in 2019, and started working with The League Winners in 2021. He has been playing fantasy football for fifteen years, got into dynasty seven years ago and have become a bit obsessed.