Carson Wentz will be a Top-10 fantasy football quarterback in 2021.
I know after writing this, I’m going to get a lot of flack for it. If you follow me on Twitter, you know I haven’t been overly pro-Carson Wentz since he’s been a Philadelphia Eagle. Rightfully so, as I’m a Cowboys fan. NFC East rivals rarely give dap to opposing team players. It’s just the way it goes. Bias aside, you can’t hold true to those feelings for fantasy football. It’s not a smart thing to do. I mean, if you’re a Broncos fan, would you avoid drafting Patrick Mahomes every season? See what I mean?
Now that page has been turned. The Eagles have moved on from Carson Wentz, trading him to the Indianapolis Colts. In the deal, the Eagles will receive a 2021 3rd-round pick and a conditional 2022 2nd-round pick that could “potentially” become a first if certain stipulations are met. Per ESPN Insider Adam Schefter, Wentz would have to play “at or above 75% of the snaps” for the Colts next season in order for the conditional 2nd-rounder to become a 1st.
If Carson Wentz’s playtime is at or above 75% next season, the conditional 2022 second-round pick would become a first-round pick, per sources. The second-round pick also.could become a first if Wentz plays at least 70 percent of the plays and the Colts go to the playoffs.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 18, 2021
With Carson in Indy now, the Colts have upgraded at the QB position. If Wentz does indeed turn it around, they can have their QB for the future all in one go. But that’s what needs to happen for Wentz to be in order to return back to his 2017 ways and the Colts have the pieces to get it done. “But how is Wentz just going to un-suck?” you might ask? Well, here are the ways.
The Offense
Let’s be honest. The Eagles haven’t done Carson Wentz any justice in terms of bringing in what was needed in order for him to succeed. Alshon Jeffery, a dud. DeSean Jackson, another dud. Jalen Reagor, to be continued. They did have Zach Ertz and drafted Dallas Goedert at the tight end position but that’s not nearly enough.
With the steady decline and injury build-up tied into Jeffery, who hadn’t cracked 900 yards receiving since 2014 when he was a Chicago Bear; and DeSean Jackson who’s only played in a grand total of 8 games over the last two seasons, you would think that Howie Roseman would have jumped at the chance to bring in younger weapons. Instead, they gave Wentz JJ-Arcega Whiteside when they could have had D.K. Metcalf.
Miles Sanders was one of the better additions to the Eagles. Gaining the lead role for the Eagles backfield, accumulating 1,064 yards total from scrimmage. Unfortunately, as good as he is, Sanders too fell short of expectations as he finished outside the Top-20 among fantasy football running backs, finishing as the RB23 in PPR.
In contrast, the Colts are fully loaded and have the cap space to bring in even more weapons this offseason. The Colts have the 3rd-most cap space according to Overthecap.com. This will allow them to target some of the better free-agent wide receivers out there.
Imagine adding Chris Godwin or Kenny Golladay to what the Colts already have with Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell (if he can stay healthy). Last season, Pittman would miss a few weeks with a knee injury but would return and take over as the new lead wide receiver; out snapping veteran wideout T.Y. Hilton on the season 77.7% to 63.1%, averaging 53.8 snaps a game to Hilton’s 45.9 snaps a game.
You also can’t forget about the tight ends and running back groups. Jack Doyle is still with the team. My personal favorite, Mo Alie-Cox is set to be a free agent as well as Trey Burton. There are also rumors circulating that Zach Ertz could end up there via trade.
The running back group is much deeper with talent compare to the Eagles with Jonathan Taylor, Nyhiem Hines, and Jordan Wilkins. Taylor especially looks to continue to lead the backfield as he had a strong rookie campaign, finishing inside the Top-10 among fantasy football running backs in PPR at RB6 and rushing for 1,169 yards (3rd among RBs). And we know how Quenton Nelson and the offensive line get down. Nelson (90.6) is still one of the higher-rated interior linemen according to PFF.
The Colts offensive line is ranked inside the top 10 per PFF as well. The Eagles oline… 19th. It’s just night and day between the two teams.
Starting From The Bottom
Wentz has a lot of work to do in order to “un-suck” next season. His potential should allow him to do that being able to dive headfirst into a better work ethic with a new team and some familiar faces. Wentz will ultimately determine which direction he wants to go. After last season, finishing with a 34th ranked Passer Rating (72.8) and the 3rd worst bad throw % of 21.7, he’s definitely got work to do in order to rebound back to something a lot closer to his 2017 ways.
The wide receivers in Philly took a lot of heat during the season after being accused of not getting open enough for Wentz to hit them. But, after some digging, it was hard to keep that narrative going. The Eagles’ wide receivers were actually getting open and creating space.
For example, Travis Fulgham was averaging 2.4 yards of separation, per Next Gen Stats, heading into Week 12. That was better than Saints WR Michael Thomas and Bears WR Allen Robinson. Maybe the wide receivers were getting open and maybe it was Carson Wentz who had the 3rd worse On Target % last season of 70.4% missing his targets.
Travis Fulgham – 2.4 YOS (better than Michael Thomas (2.3), Allen Robinson (2.3) Kenny Golladay (1.8) Mike Williams (2) and Golden Tate (2.2)
Jalen Reagor – 3 YOS (better than Terry McLaurin, Michael Gallup, Ceedee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk and Robby Anderson at 2.9.)
— William Spencer III (@Hype_Phinest) December 2, 2020
By comparison, Philip Rivers, who was the Colts QB last season, had an On Target % of 77.2%. That was good for 14th among QBs in 2020. Rivers also improved as a passer from his final year as a Charger to his first year as a Colt.
Rivers would jump from an 88.5 QBR in 2019, to a 97; going from rank 17th to 13th. That may not seem like a substantial rise but it does show that the offense has been able to improve quarterback play. So there’s at least some foundation for Wentz, who is much better than an aging Rivers at this point in their careers.
Rivers also managed to place in the Top-20 among quarterbacks for fantasy football last season, finishing 20th overall. From Weeks 1-8, Rivers slow starts and inconsistent performance landed him as the QB27 over that span and averaging just 14.5 FPPG. But as he continued to progress in the Colts system from Weeks 10-17, Rivers would improve as the QB14, averaging 16.8 FPPG.
Wentz actually had an opposite start to his 2020 season for fantasy football. Over the first 7 weeks of the season, Wentz would have a strong position as the QB7. It’s wild to see that over the final 5 weeks of his season he would fall to QB22 and be benched for the remainder of the year. He would only average 13.9 fantasy points down that stretch.
The Wrap Up
This move does more good than harm for Carson Wentz. Now he has an opportunity to quiet the naysayers and stick it to the Philadelphia Eagles for wasting his potential in a broken system created by the Eagles’ front office. Wentz’s return to Frank Reich alone should be enough buzz, as he was part of the team that created the MVP caliber year in 2017. Combine that with a much better offensive line and a front office actually attempting to bring in pieces for success, and it should be more than plausible to expect a rebound year for Carson.
Per FantasyFootballCalculator.com, Carson Wentz is still being considered as a late-round QB with an ADP of 14.06. That’s fine. I would fully expect that number to move once we get closer to the fantasy football draft season. I would certainly take Wentz in Indy over guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Baker Mayfield, and even Derek Carr at this point. Wentz offers more upside in my opinion than the other guys. I’ve already planted my flag on this one. Wentz is going to have a good year. Don’t miss the boat on this one.
Another hot take. Carson Wentz finishes as a Top 10 QB for the 2021 Fantasy season.
— William Spencer III (@Hype_Phinest) February 18, 2021
