Collin Johnson: Under the Radar

Better Lucky than Good? 

How can a 1-15 team’s future be looking bright?  Well, it seems that all the stars have aligned for the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Jets won one game too many and gave the Trevor Lawrence lottery ticket to the Jags. A couple weeks later, the hype was increased with the naming of Urban Meyer as their new head coach.  Meyer has been a winner everywhere he has gone and now looks to prove it in the NFL. 

There is excitement in DUVAL with a generational QB and hopefully the best offense it has seen since the early 2000s with Mark Brunell.  Everyone is already trying to run out in their dynasty leagues and trade for the stars of the offense:  DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, and James Robinson.  While these will all be great breakout candidates for next year, another name to watch out for is Collin Johnson.  Let’s dive deeper into Collin’s profile.  

 

Collin Johnson came back to the Longhorns for his senior season but dealt with nagging hamstring injuries leading to 2019 season totals of 38 catches, 559 yards and 3 tds per SRCFB.  The two previous years, Johnson played in 26 games and hauled in over 120 catches for over 1700 yards and 9 tds. 

During his time in Austin, Johnson thrived on making contested catches and had some of the best hands in college football.  Per PFF_College, Johnson was 3rd in fewest drops since 2017 and 5th most 1st-down catches on 3rd-down.  

After his disappointing final season, Johnson used the senior bowl to highlight his skillset and show-off to NFL scouts.  During practices he showcased his ability to get off press coverage and run precise routes, in addition to making the tough, physical catches.  These abilities helped make him a draft day sleeper despite his lack of speed and separation from DBs.  

 

Friendly reminder that this is what you can expect from former #Texas #Longhorns WR Collin Johnson on a weekly basis at the next level. The red zone is his sweet spot and with much improved footwork, we could see a legitimately consistent producer on Sundays.#WNSFilm pic.twitter.com/BzGo0HmUoq

— Brandon Olsen (@WNS_Brandon) January 28, 2020

Slow Start with the Jaguars 

Johnson was drafted in the 5th-round by the Jacksonville Jaguars but was overshadowed by his higher drafted teammate, WR Laviska Shenault.  With his physical tools, Johnson impressed in training camp to secure a roster spot on the Jags. 

Even with the impressive showing in camp there was not much playing time, as he logged under 20% of snaps taken during 8 of the first 10 games.  Other than a touchdown in week 5 against the Texans, the rookie season looked to be unimpressive. 

His time finally came in Week 12 against Cleveland, with DJ Chark out due to injury.  Against the Browns, Johnson received 8 targets catching 4 of them for 96 yards and a highlight TD.  Johnson continued to impress and gain playing time until his season was cut early due to injury in early December.    

   

Collin Johnson's catches from Week 12. 4 catches for 96 yards and a TD. Good showing from the #Jaguars rookie pic.twitter.com/jdoapqlciE

— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) December 3, 2020

Fantasy Outlook 

Even though Collin Johnson had modest numbers his rookie year there are many reasons he could be on the upswing.  Both Chris Conley and Keelan Cole are free agents and their future with the team is up in the air.  Chark seems to be the #1 receiver with Shenault occupying the slot.  This leaves the other outside WR position open and gives Johnson a great chance moving forward the next few years.  Most may think of Urban Meyer’s offense as run heavy but at Ohio St, the pass % continued to rise.    

Now onto what should be expected in the Jaguars offense. In Meyer’s 1st year at Ohio State, the pass percentage was 33% while his final year in 2018 had increased to 49%.  It’s also important to note that Trevor Lawrence would be the most talented quarterback Meyer has coached, so the pass percentage could increase further. 

The Jaguars offense was bad last year, so with a better QB there should be more time on the field and more scoring opportunities.  That is where Johnson could really come into play.  He is a great in contested catches and at 6’6 is a matchup dream in the redzone.  In addition to his skills, Trevor Lawrence has shown in college that he loves to target the bigger wide receivers and allow them to make the big play.  In his freshman year, he targeted WRs over 6’3 46% of the time and 63% of the time his sophomore year. 

According to FFPros’ value chart, Johnson is worth a late 3rd round pick.  It would be worth trying to acquire him for a 4th rounder for those that are rookie crazy or as a small throw-in with a trade for another player. He should show an uptick in production this year but could be in line for more work in future years.  This is DJ Chark’s final year under contract. With a good year, Johnson could convince the team to forego re-signing Chark, and give him more opportunities instead.  Johnson’s stock is going to continue to rise in the offseason and this is the time to get in cheap on him before it’s too late.