Is Derrick Henry poised to continue his dominance as the rushing leader, or is he set to regress after a 2,000 yard year?
Derrick Henry has been the rushing king for two consecutive seasons, taking the league by storm with his monster runs and stiff arms. His electrifying plays and ability to run anybody over have kept this man at the top of the rushing leaderboards for over two seasons now. Is Derrick Henry poised to continue his dominance as the rushing leader, or is he set to regress after a 2,000 yard year?
We all know Derrick Henry is a tank, as he has shown us through the years of dominance. Henry is entering his age 27 season, or better known as the cliff.
These are not the prime years for running backs. Derrick Henry is entering the years that historically show regression, so it’s hard not to bank on the inevitable regression that will take place.
Henry isn’t going to repeat a 2,000 yard season despite how good he is. That was a historic feat, and will be cemented as one of the best by a rusher ever. What we can try and predict is his fantasy football outlook, especially in terms of dynasty. We play a game that relies a lot on odds, and playing the odds to your favor usually trends to the best success long term. Whether or not you are in a “win now” mode in dynasty, or a rebuild, Derrick Henry is a massive sell.
[pickup_prop id=”5464″]
Aging RBs are never going to retain the value needed to create a longstanding dynasty, and frankly if Derrick Henry didn’t win you championships the last two seasons, it’s time to retool. His fantasy football value isn’t going to be as high as it was mid-season last year, but even going into next season he’ll hold value for people believing they will compete. Sell. Continue to send trade offers for Henry, whether it’s here in May, or later in October.
Henry isn’t going to fall off a cliff. I don’t believe that will happen; he’ll be a 275 touches kind of guy again this year. With that kind of volume, he’s bound to hold fantasy football relevancy, but it won’t be at as high of a level as it was the prior two seasons. He’s going into an offense with a new OC, less receiving weapons, and a defense that didn’t look to make any vast improvements that will make an impact.
He will continue to decline, and whether that means he finally hits the cliff in another season, you’ll be happy you finally got out and can quite worrying about an aging back. I’d much rather take my pieces in a trade and work with those than risk one volatile piece in Henry.
It’s hard for some people to come to terms with Derrick Henry regressing, but it’s bound to happen. The risk far outweighs the reward in this situation, even if you believe the reward is another top-5 season from the king. I will continue to advise selling Derrick Henry, as his fantasy football value won’t ever be the same.
