Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: Too Many Leagues?

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With the 2021 NFL Draft complete, many rookie drafts are already happening. I take a look at how my rookie drafts match up to the rookie ADP.

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My close friends have always said that I am in way too many fantasy football leagues, which was when I was in around 15 leagues. Then the pandemic hit and I have been working from home since February 2020. The lockdown and boredom led to being in 78 leagues in 2020.

You read that number right.

It was overwhelming and a horrible decision as you may imagine. Waiver Tuesday took 2-3 hours to complete and was exhausting. I’ve downsized to around 40 leagues, but have had 19 rookie drafts already. So let’s look to see if general ADP matches my own rookie drafts.

ADP Comparison

I only used my rookie drafts that had 4 rounds of picks and were Superflex leagues with TE premium scoring. 16 of the 19 drafts were on Sleeper App, so I utilized rookie draft ADP data from Sleeper found here. The compilation is put together by @adeiko_FF on Twitter, and I suggest following for some great content. Surprisingly the top-10 of my personal drafts and the general ADP were the same.

After the top-10, there are some differences (as you can see below), but 37 of the 48 players picked were only off by a couple of draft spots. The outlier draft picks that either were not in the ADP, or more than four picks away, were mostly in the 4th round.

Most of those picks in the 4th round are dart throws, so the difference would make sense that managers pick the guys they like the best. Both Eskridge and Atwell were surprise draft picks in the 2nd round, but based on draft capital, managers felt they were worth the higher draft pick.

Looking at the position breakdown between the ADP and the personal drafts, there seemed to be a little bit of a difference in strategy. WRs and TEs are very similar in numbers but it looks like in my personal drafts the 4th round fliers were used on RBs; while in the Sleeper ADP, QBs were picked.

I tend to go with the RB strategy, because after the top-5 QBs, the rest are likely to be backups and developmental. Whereas James Robinson showed last year, there is always an RB that can flash given the opportunity.

My Picks and Strategy

There were varying spots where I picked in all of my drafts. In some, I traded assets for picks. For others, I traded back. While in some leagues, I had top-5 picks from a horrible record last season.

Below are the top-10 highest amounts of shares I accumulated of a player on my fantasy football teams. Now let’s get into the general strategy and how why I felt so strongly about those players.

General Strategy

• If I had a top-4 pick I would go for the top SF QB
  • #1 overall, I would go Trevor Lawrence. Anything after that I would go with Fields
• If I was outside the top-8ish I would forego RB and focus on WRs
  • • Usually, managers would reach for Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams. I decided instead of drafting based on need, to take the best player available – which tended to be WR. I felt I would worry about the RB position later on and have bargaining chips of talented rookie WRs
  • After the 1st round, I used the same strategy and focused on the WRs in the 2nd and 3rd round
    • I would only look at RBs in the 4th round. I felt most of the RBs did not have a good landing spot and would rather take WRs that could get on the field more and in my view a better chance of consistent playing time

Why I liked these Players

 

1. Nico Collins is a player that I would target early in the 3rd round. This could be some of my Michigan bias but I feel he is very talented, just underutilized while experiencing terrible QB play. 3rd round is great value even if Deshaun Watson does not play for the Texans because after Brandin Cooks there is not much WR depth.
2. I won’t lie, Rashod Bateman was outside my top-5 WRs before the draft. After the Ravens chose him, I was even lower on him. Thanks to analytic gurus Chris Moxley and Jerrick Backous from campus2canton.com, I have seen the light and would go heavy on Bateman for my late-1st and early-2nd selection. He may not be a top-12 WR, but he could be great in that top 15-20 WR range for years to come.
3. As my last article mentioned, I love Rondale Moore and his spot in Arizona. I would get him in the early-2nd to mid-2nd round and would be ecstatic every time. I usually went into the 2nd being happy with Elijah or Rondale Moore, and it just happened those ahead of me usually went with Elijah.
4. Smith-Marsette, like Collins, was underutilized in college at Iowa and is an underrated player. He goes to the Minnesota Vikings and will compete for the 3rd WR position and in a couple of years could take over for Adam Thielen when he retires.
5. Justin Fields. I have been saying that he was the 2nd best QB; and usually I drafted that way if I could. He landed in a favorable spot and I feel all the teams that passed on him will regret it. He is accurate, tough, and a comparable playmaker in the lines of Russell Wilson.
6. Tommy Tremble was an easy target in the 3rd round since I passed on the top-2 TEs. He is a good blocker and goes to Carolina where they cannot seem to find a consistent TE. He is worth a dart throw and could be a real steal in fantasy football dynasty leagues.
7. I will be honest, I was not high on Dez Fitzpatrick before the draft and was surprised he went as early as he did in the draft. I made this mistake last year looking at the position of need and going with Jalen Reagor, but the Titans will have to throw to someone else other than AJ Brown.
8. Hunter Long does not have the easy road to starting like Tremble, but received Day 2 draft capital; and is worth a pick in the late 2nd or 3rd round. Miami has used 2 TE sets in the past, so Long could get some immediate red-zone targets and help Tua Tagovailoa and the young offense.
9. Rhamondre Stevenson is the only RB in this top-10 list. He usually would go late in the 3rd and since I passed on all the other middle-of-the-road backs, he made sense at that spot. He is a big back and although the Patriots are a mess figuring out usage, he could take over the LeGarrette Blount role and be a TD vulture.
10. Tre’ McKitty is much like Tremble, in he should be in line to get immediate snaps. Hunter Henry left the Chargers and the team brought in Jared Cook. Cook is late in his career and should have the early nod but Mckitty is worth a stash for the future.
11. Trevor Lawrence is a no-brainer here and if I picked at one, he was the guy. I even traded a haul to get him in one of my leagues.

This was the first year that I went deep, looking at tape and ranking the players coming into the 2021 NFL Draft. I had some obvious misses and will look to adapt my scouting for the future.

It was interesting that the top-12 were consistent in both models, but after that, it was up in the air of when players were picked. In years past, I would go based on the need for my fantasy football team. But this year, I decided to go with the best player available.

We will see if it paid off for me and if I can stay away from adding to many fantasy football leagues this offseason. Let me know your thoughts and any trends you are seeing in your rookie drafts.