The Hangover: Post-Draft Reactions & Fantasy Football Dynasty Value

It’s been a while since we’ve had fantasy football, or any real football. Yet, up until now, it’s been fun. There were incoming rookies to analyze, tape to scrutinize, their measurements and production to quantify. It was a veritable smorgasbord of prospect prognostication every place you looked that kept the lights on during the dark days of the offseason.

Sure, free agency had us on the edge of our seats, but that high quickly faded as most prominent players were inked within the span of two weeks back in March. Now, the NFL Draft – the lone oasis amid a vast, deserted landscape of news about the host of Jeopardy and a muscle-bound track athlete – has come and gone.

And, sure, the NFL schedule was just released and OTAs are on their way, but let’s be clear:

The post-draft hangover is real.

For me, it’s a matter of occasion. I like the pomp; the circumstance of it all. And, though it was in Cleveland this year, next year’s trip to Vegas should be everything we hope it will be.

So in preparation for the upcoming season and in celebration of everything the draft has been and will continue to be, let’s take a look at some risers and fallers in the fantasy football community to quench your football thirst.

Grab your satchel and come on a ride with me as we take a look at who got hitched to new teams and who’s been hung out to dry… on the roof of a Caesar’s Palace… for like 2 days while his friends, a baby named Carlos, and a naked Chinese gangster try to sort out what’s what.

Fallers: The Guys Who Got Stu-ed

credit: people.com via Warner Bros. 

Stu’s a good guy. A wanna-be family man with a good dental practice and a girlfriend who wants him to succeed. But her worst fears are realized after a trip to Vegas sends him over the edge. Stu acts out his wildest fantasies and finally understands he is underappreciated by an overbearing partner.

Stu profiles as a steady-Eddie from a production standpoint. Reliable and responsible, he’ll take what the defense gives him. But even though he’s prepared to make the ultimate commitment to his team, his team isn’t as faithful.

We’ve got a handful of fantasy Stus after the conclusion of the draft. Here are just a few:

James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

James Robinson‘s value is now toast as the Jags somewhat inexplicably selected Travis Etienne with the 25^th overall selection in the NFL Draft. The connection between Trevor Lawrence and Etienne is clear. New head coach Urban Meyer has no allegiance to Robinson, who will average about $850K over the next two seasons before his contract expires. At best, he’s destined to become a short-yardage, goal line banger and an elite handcuff in dynasty. Yet, his role could diminish in-season as he remains trapped in a toxic relationship in Jacksonville.

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers

It was all but certain that the 49ers would select a top-3 quarterback after they made a blockbuster deal with the Dolphins for the third overall pick back in March. Now, with those dreams a reality and Trey Lance in the building, Jimmy Garoppolo’s days are most certainly numbered. He’s a dart-throw dynasty asset at the moment; with the assumption he’ll play a fair amount early in 2021 and potentially find a new home next season.

Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Marquise Brown was never a consistent producer, but the final six-game stretch of 2020 had fantasy football managers excited for the future. In those contests, Brown averaged 7 targets, 56 yards and 1 touchdown per game. That’s elite-level consistency from a guy who had never before been consistent. Now with the signing of Sammy Watkins and the selections of both Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace, Brown will be fighting for targets in one of the league’s least pass-happy offenses. Take anything you can get for Brown at this point, but he’s likely just a deep stash-and-pray option in dynasty.

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Risers: The Guys Who Can Carry Your Team

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Alan’s an undervalued wild card who’s never realized his full potential until the opportunity presented itself. He’s been a one-man wolfpack for so long, the addition of some new blood is welcome. However, Alan thrives in chaos (and often creates it). Even if a bit odd or even unhinged, he’s clearly an integral part of his team; which has now fully embraced him.

Alan profiles as a player who should take a value leap in 2021. For whatever reason, we’re a little hesitant to put these guys in the upper echelon at their respective positions, even though they’ve clearly benefitted from free agency and the draft. Now that their team has showed a little faith in their abilities or given them some much-needed help, the Alans of the league are ready to roll.

So here’s a few guys whose pack didn’t swallow them whole and, instead, raised them up to the roof:

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

After enduring two straight years without viable weapons in the receiving game, the Ravens decided to throw a bunch of guys at the receivers’ room wall to see who sticks. As mentioned, Watkins, Bateman and Wallace have all joined the fray, uniting with Brown, Miles Boykin, Devin Duvernay, and others. And, of course the team still lets tight end Mark Andrews roam the middle of the field.

With offensive coordinator Greg Roman admittedly looking to balance out the offense and with a bevy of new weapons at his disposal, Lamar Jackson could be truly unstoppable in 2021 and become a league winner for years to come as he continues to develop. And, right now, his price is depressed in all fantasy football formats.

Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins

Myles Gaskin got a massive vote of confidence from Brian Flores and his regime as they passed on adding a major backfield contributor during both free agency and the NFL Draft. With 28-year-old Malcolm Brown and seventh-rounder Gerrid Doaks joining the team, Gaskin is still firmly entrenched as Miami’s RB1.

With the additions of Jaylen Waddle and Hunter Long, and the continued commitment to bolstering an ascending defensive unit, Gaskin’s case gets even better. Plus, he’s 24. Go get him in dynasty as a mid-range RB2.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team

F1 is set to takeoff in 2021. The NFL’s WR20 in PPR leagues last season should see a realistic uptick in usage with known downfield-bomber Ryan Fitzpatrick now slinging the rock in the nation’s capital. With legit offensive threats in Curtis Samuel and third-round pick Dyami Brown now sharing the field, things should open up even more for Terry McLaurin. If his nine targets per game rate from 2020 holds, and I think it will, his efficiency should rise and propel him to fantasy football WR1 status.

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The Rest of the Pack

Phil: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

A clear-cut stud, Dak Prescott is finally getting the recognition he deserves. Though he’s coming off a catastrophic, season-ending injury, he’s still got the elite offense and poor defense in place to pick up right where he left off in 2020 as a top-3 option at the position. Dak’s not going through any character development arc here. He’s the leader of his squad and a lock to be an elite-level producer once again.

Doug: Bryan Edwards, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

Bryan Edwards was left on a Vegas casino rooftop and all but forgotten in his rookie season – though injury had a lot to do with it. Now, with a full-ish offseason to build rapport with quarterback Derek Carr and not much competition in a decent passing offense, he should come back to life and make his way to marrying his talents to his team. Admittedly not a star in this group (he’s no more than a WR3), Edwards can still be a consistent fantasy football producer of the future and is worthy of a long-term stash.

Carlos: Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

In just his first season, Tee Higgins made his mark on the league. Though he’s only had limited screen time thus far in his career, he’s managed to show off his athleticism and capability to become the Bengals’ alpha wide receiver in 2020. While it’s true that the arrival of Ja’Marr Chase limits his insane upside, Higgins is still a baby at 22 years old and looking to grow in an ascending offense. Buy the dip if managers are scared off by the Joe Burrow/Chase connection.

 Mr. Chow: Corey Davis, WR, New York Jets

Corey Davis finally escaped from the trunk this past season, a new-born fantasy football asset after years of mediocrity. His production profile had been so tiny it’s been barely visible, but he busted out in 2020 and earned himself a fat contract from the Jets in the offseason. Now, he might be the leader of the pack in New York, if his talent can dictate his role and usage. Look for Davis to hover on the WR2/3 borderline.

Tyson’s Tiger: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon’s been locked in the proverbial Cincinnati bathroom for far too long. Surely, it was his own doing, as a contract dispute and injury derailed his 2020 season. This year Mixon should be released and return to his rightful home on the RB1/RB2 borderline. He’s only 24 and the Bengals’ offensive weapons have improved dramatically since we’ve last seen him fully healthy back in 2019. Go get him ‘cause Mixon is gonna get fed in 2021.

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If you enjoyed this article, stay tuned for Part II of this three-part series, coming soon.