Who can be the next sleeper wide receiver?
For years, the media has overinflated the talent of former sports stars’ children, valid in all sports. An example of this scenario is Jerry Rice Jr., who played football at UCLA and UNLV but never amounted to anything in the NFL. Coincidentally, the next potential sleeper receiver is his brother, Brenden Rice – a senior receiver at USC. Let’s take a look at him in Devy Sleeper Spotlight: Brenden Rice.
Overview
Brenden Rice is 6’3″ and 210 lbs. This is an excellent frame, as the size of receivers in recent draft classes has shrunk. This year, Rice has accounted for 45 receptions on 70 targets with 791 yards, 12 touchdowns, and only two drops. His average depth of target(ADOT) is 15.1, which ranks 18th in the nation, of receivers with 65 or more targets.
Strengths/Weaknesses
Brenden Rice is a master of leverage. In his game against Nevada, we see Rice run a post against a 4.5-yard cushion, and the defensive back has inside leverage at the line. We see Rice stem him outside and attack the blind spot due to the DB playing the eyes of Caleb Williams. He then shows off the explosiveness when he breaks inside. Here is a clip of this play:
Rice’s significant weakness is his play strength. On a play against Arizona, we see Rice win the leverage battle but lose the rep because of his strength, and then he gets walked over to the sideline by the defender. This results from the defensive back getting hands on him twice. Here is the clip of this play:
There are numerous plays across their tape, like the ones I just discussed.
Charting Data
I charted four games of Rice’s: Nevada, Arizona State, Colorado, and Arizona. Here it is:
Some of his best routes were the curl, dig, and slant. Two of his worst routes were the go and post, especially when he was against man coverage. His shortcomings in the deeper routes are due to a lack of elite speed.
Advanced Stats/Metrics
Let’s dive into some PFF data. Across Rice’s career, he had a yards per route run of 2.10 and, during this senior season, 2.75. His career yards after the catch are 6.4, and during this senior season, he has 5.2. Finally, PFF has a receiving grade of 79.4 in the current season. Across his career, he has run 88.3% of his routes out wide and 11.1% in the slot.
Now, let’s look at some Campus2Canton metrics.
Altogether, this does not show Rice has a great analytical profile.
NFL & Rookie Draft
I believe that Rice translates into a big slot receiver due to the speed concerns and the routes he excelled at. His profile is similar to Jonathan Mingo, who was a 2nd-round pick last year. Currently, Tankathon does not have Rice within its top 100. At NFLMockDraftDatabase, he is projected to be a 5th-round pick. Over the last month, two sites, NFLDraftBuzz and FalconsWire, have Rice in the 3rd-round.
Rice will be a sleeper receiver in your rookie drafts, most likely in the 3rd-round.
