Is Puka Nacua Still a Locked-In Fantasy Football WR1?

Los Angeles Rams rookie WR Puka Nacua lit the fantasy football world on fire in the first seven weeks of the season. He looked like the steal of the year. The conversation surrounding his dynasty value was incredible. Many were crowning him as a top 5 dynasty wide receiver. That lofty ranking had him ahead of players like Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and many others just by default.

In Weeks 1-7, Nacua sat as the WR4 in PPR formats, per Fantasypros. Since then, Nacua has cooled significantly. He’s posted just one double-digit fantasy performance in four games since. In his two games since the Rams’ bye week, Nacua has produced just nine catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. His numbers since Week 7 have been decent for a fifth round rookie. But they pale in comparison to his absurd early season pace.

Now, it’s fantasy crunch time. Every week is crucial to a potential fantasy football championship. And Nacua’s fantasy managers are left with a major dilemma. Is Puka Nacua still a fantasy football WR1? is he even a lineup lock?

Interestingly, Nacua’s slump has lined up exactly with his teammate and star WR Cooper Kupp. Since Week 7, Kupp’s numbers have been even worse. He left the game with an injury in the team’s Week 11 win against the Seahawks. But Kupp’s failed to produce in his three other complete games as well in that stretch.

QB Matthew Stafford did suffer a thumb injury in Week 8 and missed Week 9. But he looked fully healthy in this weekend’s 37-14 blowout against the Cardinals. Stafford threw for 229 yards on 25 of 33 passing with four touchdowns. Stafford spread the ball around like a pro, hitting TE Tyler Higbee and RB Kyren Williams for two touchdowns each.

With Stafford operating at full strength, and Kupp potentially not at full health, Nacua still has a major opportunity to put up big numbers. Despite his recent struggles, Nacua still ranks sixth in the NFL in targets this season. His 2.62 yards per route ranks 10th in the league.

As the sample size continues to increase, we could be in line for more big Puka games than letdowns. Unfortunately, the Rams and Nacua are about to face two of the NFL’s top defenses. They face Cleveland and Baltimore in the next two weeks. The Broncos just made the Browns look vulnerable with a 29-12 win, and the Rams get to stay at home in climate-controlled SoFi Stadium. Puka remains a fringe WR1 and a must-start for me in Week 13 despite the tough draw, barring your roster being loaded with options at receiver.

But with another poor showing, Nacua would have to hit the bench in a road matchup against the Ravens in Week 14 with the playoffs on the line. There’s no way I could confidently start a struggling Nacua against arguably the top overall defense on the road. It would take a big game against the Browns, like 25+ PPR points big, for me to jam Nacua into the lineup in that spot in Week 14.

If you do make it into the playoffs, or if you’ve been coasting towards them all year after Puka’s hot start, he gets two extremely good matchups in the fantasy football playoffs. First, he faces the porous Washington pass defense at home in Week 15. Then he has a tough but manageable Week 16 home game against New Orleans. Nacua finishes off his season in a road game against the New York Giants for a potential fantasy football championship.

If Nacua turns it on and powers through these next two difficult weeks, he’s still a lineup lock. I’m starting him against the Browns, but if he continues to get shut down, he’s definitely hitting the bench. He’d present an even bigger dilemma in Week 15, potentially facing an extremely soft matchup, but doing so with only one good performance in his previous six chances.