Targeting running backs to buy, sell and hold in dynasty fantasy football leagues.
In last month’s article I looked at which quarterbacks to buy, sell and hold in dynasty fantasy football leagues. With the NFL free agency frenzy finished and the draft around the corner, I figured it would be a good month to look at running backs. There was a lot of turnover throughout the league as players found themselves on new teams. But now the dust has settled, and we have a clearer picture of which teams will be looking for a rookie and which backfields are set.
I just want to preface this article by mentioning that buying, selling and holding in dynasty leagues is team-dependent. It is important to know whether your team is contending or rebuilding before making a decision. Selling veterans in the offseason isn’t always a good idea, as their value is lowest when they are not playing. Meanwhile, draft pick value is at an all time high post-free agency. You can utilize draft picks to acquire proven players. This can work as contenders or for rebuilding. However, rebuilding teams should not be buying RBs because their value and shelf life disappears the fastest. They need to be the last piece added to the puzzle. Without further adieu let’s look at my buy, sell, and hold for dynasty fantasy football running backs.
*All fantasy points per game will be referring to Half-PPR scoring.
Buy Zamir White – Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White is a former 4th round pick from 2022. He spent much of his first two years playing behind Josh Jacobs. He was given his chance to shine from Weeks 15-18 last year and did not disappoint, averaging 14.1 fantasy points per game. That ranked 8th best among RBs during that span. The crazy part is he did it while only scoring one touchdown. White averaged just shy of 100 rush yards per game (99.25 yards per game) and was able to catch 9 passes for 60 receiving yards.
As of now, it looks like White dodged one major bullet. The team let Jacobs walk in free agency. Ameer Abdullah was re-signed and Alexander Mattison was brought on as a complementary piece. However, neither will threaten White’s position atop of the depth chart. Mattison had his chance to lead a backfield last year and proved he’s nothing more than a depth piece. The next hurdle for White is the NFL draft. This RB class isn’t full of top end talent, but it has some depth.
Value Spike Coming
Zamir White is currently the RB28 on KeepTradeCut. If the Raiders don’t add a Day 2 running back in the 2024 NFL draft, look for his value to significantly increase. The Raiders offense should improve with the addition of Gardner Minshew at QB – who takes over for Aidan O’Connell and Jimmy G from one year ago.
Opposing teams will not be able to focus on the backfield, which should open up running lanes for White. If he finds open space, watch out. He has a 4.40 forty time and proved last year that he can chew up yards in space with 4.8% breakaway run rate (16th best).
White is valued between a mid-to-late second round pick in dynasty fantasy football leagues. If that is all it takes to acquire him, I am rolling the dice. The only two rookie running backs I would take over White are whoever lands with the Cowboys and Chargers. Therefore, as a contender don’t hesitate to add a bit more to that second to get a deal done.
Sell Kyren Williams – Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams‘ breakout last year caught everyone by surprise. There were whispers that Sean McVay was a fan prior to the start of his rookie year. Unfortunately, he went down with an injury on the opening kickoff that kept him out for most of the year. Williams fought off Cam Akers in 2023 to win the starting job. Akers was shipped off to Minnesota, which left Williams alone in the backfield.
Williams averaged 19.9 fantasy points per game. He missed four weeks due to injury and only had two games with single digit fantasy points. Williams was a machine and the focal point of the Rams’ offense with a dominator rating of 35.1% (2nd amongst RBs).
Selling While the Iron is Hot
Why would you sell a 23-year old running back that just broke out? Value peak! Unless we are projecting Williams will turn into the next Christian McCaffrey, his value in dynasty fantasy football leagues will only flatline from this point. Another solid season will still see him stay behind the likes of Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, and likely Jonathan Taylor. That leaves him only able to jump Devon Achane and CMC.
Kyren Williams doesn’t have the size or draft capital of the other running backs around him in the rankings. Those things shouldn’t matter, but they do. They matter for a second contract and job security, and therefore they matter to fantasy value. We have seen time and again, late round running backs flash and then disappear. That is why I suggest selling out now while the iron is hot.
Williams is currently the RB7 on KTC. The Rams do not have a capable backup. There is a good chance they address the issue either in the draft or with one of the veterans still available. For Williams’ sake, you want it to be a veteran. However, look out if it is a Day 2 running back from the draft.
Williams’ dynasty price is at its peak. You can move him for someone like Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne, or Kenneth Walker, especially if you can get a little on top of it. You could collect multiple first round picks and select one of the running backs that will join the Cowboys or Chargers. Kyren was a great story in 2023 and all the power to him. However, it is time to sell.
Hold Austin Ekeler – Washington Commanders
It was hard to pick out a ‘hold’ from the running back position. Some of the veterans like Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, and Aaron Jones are now in new situations that add a bit of excitement. You can use the new landing spots as a value bump to sell. As I mentioned earlier, it is always best to sell veterans mid-season when they are producing fantasy points. However, those three (particularly Henry and Mixon), gained enough momentum that they could be sold now.
Austin Ekeler, on the other hand, did not land in the ideal spot. Ekeler spent a good chunk of last year dealing with an ankle injury. Yes, he only missed four games, but he never quite looked the same after he came back. However, 11.4 fantasy points per game was definitely not what fantasy managers were predicting. Especially after coming off of back-to-back years as a top two fantasy RB.
The Commanders’ landing spot isn’t that bad, however. Ekeler has always thrived as a pass catching and red zone back. He won’t get all the red zone looks, but the passing catching work will all be his. The Commanders are a rebuilding team and likely playing from behind often. Ekeler will become a good check down option for a rookie QB. He also reunites with his former head coach Anthony Lynn, who will now be his RB coach.
Ekeler’s value sank low after his performance last season, currently as the RB40 on KTC. He’s valued around an early 2024 third in dynasty fantasy football leagues. If you are contending, he is worth buying, but do not sell him right now! You must hold and wait for him to produce in-season. Wait for those RB injuries to start piling up and contenders to get desperate. That’s when you pounce!
Conclusion
I hope you have enjoyed reading this month’s buy, sell, & hold. Running backs are tricky dynasty assets. When you think you have a stud they get injured or replaced. You just need to ask yourself, can I downgrade slightly and gain something. Your running backs should always be changing. Don’t get caught holding the bag on an aging vet. Happy offseason trading!
Sheldon Hand
Sheldon Hand is an elementary school teacher. He started writing in 2019, and started working with The League Winners in 2021. He has been playing fantasy football for fifteen years, got into dynasty seven years ago and have become a bit obsessed.