A month of reality football has passed, and with it a month of what we thought we knew. Our preseason suppositions are largely dust at present, as we try to re-understand the dynasty fantasy football market.
Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor and many more are not exactly what we’d hoped they’d be. But, there’s still plenty of uncertainty surrounding them. It’s to the point where buys can become sells and then buys again in the blink of an eye. That’s why you have to be willing to change your perspective quick and make moves even quicker.
You’ll be right some and wrong plenty. But if you can manage to win just one more trade than you lose or hit on one more free agent than you miss, you’ll be in excellent shape to compete now or in the future.
With this in mind, let’s have a look at my favorite dynasty fantasy football buys and sells for week 5.
Buy CJ Stroud
It’s hard to claim at this point that CJ Stroud’s start to the season has been a mirage. Not that anyone is trying to, of course. In standard scoring leagues for QBs, Stroud is the QB10 through four weeks. He’s currently ahead of Brock Purdy and Anthony Richardson. He’s well ahead of Trevor Lawrence and Dak Prescott.
But despite his hot start, he remains inappropriately valued. After a tough week 1 in Baltimore, Stroud has put up three straight 20+ point performances. He’s thrown two touchdowns in each contest. And, with the state of the Houston Texans’ defense, he’s throwing the ball an insane 37 times per game. That’s the third most attempts in the league to-date. That’s unreal for a rookie QB.
Maybe even more spectacular than the trust shown in Stroud by the Texans coaching staff is the fact that he hasn’t thrown an interception this season. Matthew Stafford has the most pass attempts and has thrown five. Kirk Cousins has the second-most attempts and has thrown four. He’s been playing at an elite level, despite the issues in front of him:
I don’t want to hear about ANY other team’s offensive line this season
C.J. Stroud has thrown for 970 yds the last 3 wks…
THE MOST IN THE NFL
…playing behind backups of backups & the most injured OL in the NFL
yet a rookie has 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 9.1 YPA
FIND A WAY!! https://t.co/INNLFrHg0X
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 3, 2023
Stroud is sure to be rostered in Superflex leagues. He should be rostered in 1QB leagues at this point. If he’s somehow on your wire, I’d bid the farm for him in redraft and dynasty fantasy football leagues. If I’m looking to make a deal for him, a 1st+ could get it done. I’d pair that high-end pick with a 3rd rounder to start or an equivalent player with a good start like Tutu Atwell, depending on league format.
Go get Stroud now before people realize just how good he’s been. With Atlanta up next in week 5, they might realize it this week.
Sell Terry McLaurin
I love Terry McLaurin. He’s just a flat out baller at the wide receiver position. Really, the only knock you’ll ever hear on him is that he’s a little bit older than you think he is. But at 28 years old, F1 is still very much in his prime.
So why am I selling him? It comes down to value and situation. McLaurin has struggled to put up fantasy points against a good Bills defense in week 3 and a good Arizona scheme in week 1. He posted good to great games in weeks 2 and 4, against the lowly Broncos and disappointing Eagles pass Ds, respectively. Though he’s the clear number 1 in Washington, I want out.
The biggest issue I see that caps Terry is Washington Commanders second-year signal caller Sam Howell. While Howell has been better than some expected, he also hasn’t been great. Against Buffalo, he threw zero touchdowns and four picks. And he was mediocre against the rest, failing to finish as a QB1 outside of a strange week 1.
Further, Howell has averaged 35 pass attempts per game. But in McLaurin’s down weeks, he threw it just 31 and 29 times. In those high-performance weeks, the Commanders threw it 39 and 41 times. That makes Terry more of a volume play, who has seen more than 6 targets just once this season.
McLaurin is good enough to overcome his situation and efficient enough to make good on fewer targets. The problem is that his quarterback isn’t polished enough to get him the ball. Howell prefers to throw to college teammate Dyami Brown while the staff prioritizes getting the ball to Curtis Samuel.
As the current PPR WR27, I’m selling high on McLaurin’s best game of the season. He’s worthy of a 1st round pick, and whether that’s from 2024 or 2025, that’s what I’m seeking. I’d also take a younger stud WR like Jordan Addison, if people are worried about his usage thus far.
Buy Marquise Brown
You might view McLaurin and Arizona Cardinals’ wideout Marquise Brown similarly. Both are talented players stuck in less-than-ideal situations. So why am I selling McLaurin and buying Hollywood in dynasty fantasy football? It’s pretty simple really…
First, Brown’s quarterback play has been surprisingly excellent. Joshua Dobbs came in from Cleveland just two short weeks before the start of the season, learned the playbook, and began balling out, almost immediately. Outside of a tough week 1 trip to Washington, Dobbs has been the QB6 overall in standard QB scoring leagues.
A big reason for that has been his rushing, averaging 48 rushing yards over his past 3 games. But he’s also been an accurate passer (with a better completion percentage than Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins), while keying mostly on Brown and tight end Zach Ertz. With Michael Wilson balling out last week, there’s yet another weapon to take coverage away from Brown.
Hollywood has also been incredibly consistent as the PPR WR17 through 4 weeks. He has averaged nine targets and six receptions per game since week 1. Those have resulted in 211 total yards and two touchdowns, making him the WR13 over the span.
Brown has been Dobbs number one target and has yet to explode like we know he can. Facing Dallas and San Francisco Ds in back-to-back weeks can limit the upside of anyone. Now with Cincy, the LA Rams and Seattle in the next three weeks, now is the time to buy before he goes off.
I’m sending a back-end 1st for Hollywood on contending teams or an RB who others are still high on, like Josh Jacobs. In those cases, you should be able to get even more on top.
Sell Jonnu Smith
As of the time of writing this piece, Jonnu Smith is the third-most added player across all of Sleeper. Fantasy managers have picked him up over half a million times since Sunday. With at least six targets in each of his last three games, so the Smith grab-and-stash has been warranted. Finishing last week as the TE3 overall without a touchdown solidified his role and status to some. But I’m still out on Jonnu.
We know that Smith is the clear number two to Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts. Pitts is a phenom who has seen more snaps than Smith in every game this season. But his role is surprising given his talent and Desmond Ridder’s clear limitations.
Pitts has been running far more routes than Smith and running them deeper downfield. According to Player Profiler, he is first at the position in total air yards, average depth per target and unrealized air yards. These are all great metrics for a pass catcher. By contrast, Jonnu is 13th, 12th and 10th. That’s fine, but not nearly as elite as Pitts’ numbers.
But it doesn’t matter. Why not? Because, unfortunately, Ridder hasn’t been able to get it to Pitts downfield. Aside from securing a 35-yarder while double-covered by two Panthers defenders in week 1, Pitts hasn’t caught a ball for more than 16 yards.
Pitts is also currently dealing with some sort of injury:
Kyle Pitts buy low opportunity exists until he’s fully healthy (or at least nearly fully up to speed).
My guess is it’ll be ~Week 8-10 range when he starts to really take off.
Seeing Jonnu Smith produce should actually give us optimism about Pitts’ future production. https://t.co/yyKAB2qSFo
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) October 4, 2023
Jonnu Smith is talented enough in his own right, but Kyle Pitts needs to be more involved than he has been if the Falcons want to win. Smith is the third-highest targeted player on the team, but I expect this type of usage to decline. Even if it doesn’t, I’m not relying on a tight end who isn’t the first option at the position on his own team.
I’d look to sell Jonnu for a 2nd off of his big game. But I’d pretty easily take a 3rd or even a young struggling player like Rashid Shaheed or Josh Downs.
Those are my best buys and sells ahead of week 5. Check back next week to see who is trending, and make the best deals possible to build the dynasty fantasy football squad possible.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.