Dynasty Profile: Mike Evans

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The fantasy football profile for Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ WR Mike Evans in dynasty formats.

 

Last offseason after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers achieved what seemed like the impossible and signed Tom Brady, it became common for dynasty managers to jump ship on Mike Evans. The prominent reason was the belief that Brady was washed entering his age 43 season and wasn’t the right fit for Bruce Arians’ downfield passing attack. In other words, it seemed like very few fantasy football managers were actually buying Evans at the time.

In 2019, Mike Evans posted 1,157 yards and 8 touchdowns in only 13 games. His season was ultimately cut short due to a hamstring injury which forced him to miss the final three games of the regular season. At the time of his injury, Evans was the WR3 on the season. He was on pace for over 1,400 yards with Jameis Winston throwing for a league high 5,109 passing yards. Only once in Brady’s career did he eclipse 5,000 yards, back in 2011.

Chris Godwin was also coming off his breakout year, finishing as the WR2 overall in 2019. Winston was able to sustain two Top-5 wide receivers in Arians’ system but the vast majority believed that would change with Brady coming to town. Ironically, while Winston was tied for the most pass attempts with 626, Brady finished 4th in pass attempts with 613 in his final year with the Patriots. His most since 2015.

The reasoning for managers bailing on Evans last offseason was valid. However, now that we have entered the offseason, should we be buying for 2021? Let’s dive in.

2020

This season Mike Evans finished as the WR11, his third consecutive season finishing as a Top-15 wide receiver. With a limited offseason and no preseason games it clearly took some time to build chemistry with Brady. Through the first 8 weeks of the season, Evans only had two games over 60 yards receiving. Having said that, he did manage to score 7 touchdowns on only 46 targets.

As the season progressed, Brady began to look Evans’ way more often, receiving 63 targets through the final 8 games of the regular season. That was a rate of almost 8 targets per game, which was more than teammate Chris Godwin during that span. Also, keep in mind that Antonio Brown‘s first game as a Buccaneer was Week 9.

On the contrary, Evans did hit career lows in targets per game and receptions per game in 2020. This gave him the label amongst fantasy football managers as being “touchdown dependent”. This was true during the early portion of the season. Again, if we break the season down into two halves, only 37% of Evans’ total yards came in the first 8 games.

Even with his targets down from previous years, Evans did manage to finish with the 2nd-most targets inside the 10-yard line. Combine that with his efficiency in the end zone and you have a player who can easily hit double digit touchdowns in any given season; a goal he is certainly no stranger to reaching.

Evans has reached 12+ touchdowns three times in his career and has finished with 8+ touchdowns in 5 out of his 7 seasons. He also just set the franchise record for touchdowns in a single season this year.

What many people may not realize is just how good Mike Evans was during the back half of the season. From Weeks 8-16, he was the WR6 in PPR leagues scoring 15+ fantasy points in all but two games. He also posted a league-winning type of performance in Week 16 with 10 receptions for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns. This type of production isn’t uncommon for Mike Evans. Over the last two seasons, he has hit 180+ yards with at least 1 touchdown four times.

This showcases his ability to have a high ceiling, but at the same time Evans also has a relatively safe floor. If he disappoints with low yardage, there’s a good chance he’ll manage to score a touchdown to save his fantasy day. Whichever way you want to look at it, Evans’ consistency was on display once again. In 20 games this season (including the postseason and Super Bowl), Evans posted less than 60 yards or failed to score a touchdown only five times.

Speaking of consistency, Mike Evans also entered the NFL history books becoming the first wide receiver to start a career with 7 consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. Think about that achievement for a second. What this tells us is that it essentially takes a lot for Evans to not suit up on Sundays. In 110 career games, Evans has missed a remarkable 6 games across 7 seasons. He played in all 20 of Tampa’s games this season despite showing up on multiple injury reports. The saying, availability is the best ability, most definitely pertains to Mike Evans.

2021

Evans will enter Week 1 having recently turned 28 years old. Some dynasty managers will look at that as old, while others view him in the middle of his prime. Tom Brady has already stated he will be back and whether or not upcoming free agents Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown will return is still to be determined.

Although some people believe Godwin will return to Tampa, there is a realistic chance the Bucs don’t sign or tag him. If that were to happen Mike Evans’ value would see a major boost. This would likely raise his ECR to the point where buying low is no longer an option.

Even if the expectation is the Bucs will be bringing everyone back for another Super Bowl run, the truth is Evans’ value can only go up. According to FantasyPros, his current ECR is WR18. This is why it may be better to buy him now, before free agency opens in March.

Like I stated earlier, in fantasy football PPR leagues, Evans has finished as a top 15 wide receiver the last 3 seasons. In standard scoring formats, he has finished as the WR8 or better in 4 of the last 5 seasons; including the overall WR1 in 2016.

In Tampa’s offense, he’s highly capable of finishing inside the Top-10 but is currently being valued closer to his floor. I personally view Evans as a potential fantasy football league winner in 2021 and beyond. If your team is in a “win-now” situation, he is the perfect player to target. This offseason, similar to last year, there’s a good chance he will be valued much lower than he should be.

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