Fantasy Football 2021: GameDay Edge – Week 10

In GameDay Week 9 article, we introduced a new explosive rank delta chart to help with fantasy football lineups. As cautioned, the explosive ranks only tell part of the story. In the Titans and Rams matchup, I cautioned that the Rams OL would have to hold up against the ferocious Titans DL. If they had, pass plays downfield were to be had. However, the Titans’ DL gave the Rams OL problems all night.

I will continue to use this chart to explore the matchups while I fine-tune the boom predictor model to account for as many matchups within a game. Data is used from Sharp Football Stats. For a play to be an explosive rush play, it needs to gain more than 10 yards. For a pass play to be deemed explosive, it needs to gain more than 15 yards.

The delta values below are the defensive explosive rank minus the opponent’s offensive explosive rank. So if Team A ranked 5th in offensive explosive pass play and Team B ranked 25th in defensive explosive pass play, Team A has a score of 20 – which is really good.

Week 10 Explosive Matchup Chart

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

• The Ravens have plus matchups both in the run game and pass game. The passing matchup ranking second-best on the slate.
• The Dolphins do not attempt to push the ball downfield much; however, blown assignments and poor tackling have led to Baltimore giving up significant explosive rushing and passing plays.
• Miami Dolphins rank league-worst at 6.0 YPA on pass plays and third-worst with 3.5 YPA on rush plays.
• Baltimore Ravens defense has pressured the QB at 27.8% which is tied third-best in the league. However, they only have generated 15 sacks which are tied fourth-worst with three other teams.

Summary

This game is set up to favor the Baltimore Ravens in all categories. The Baltimore Ravens offense should dictate game-flow against the Dolphins’ defense. However, this being a Thursday Night Football game, anything can happen. However, I think Lamar has QB1 potential this week for fantasy football.

The Baltimore defense’s lack of getting home for a sack, aggressive blitzing, busted coverage, and poor tackling leads to several explosive plays for opposing teams. Usually it takes just one good offensive play call to exploit an aggressive, poorly covered defense.

However, the Miami Dolphins do not push the ball downfield at all. Look for Jaylen Waddle to rack up receptions, but I would stay clear from all Dolphins in fantasy football. Someone on the Dolphins will get lucky and break an explosive play, but guessing who does will be hard. The only player I start in DFS and/or Lineup Showdown leagues is Mike Gesicki, as the Baltimore Ravens give up 11.9 FP to TE, ranked second-worst.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

• The Raiders have both a rush and pass plus matchups against the KC Chiefs defense.
• Surprisingly, the Chiefs rank 9th in rush explosive plays and 28th in offensive plays. This seems to be why they have been struggling as an offense, as they typically are not a dink-and-dunk team.
• Like the Baltimore Ravens, the Chiefs have a high QB pressure rate (27%) but only 12 sacks to show for it.
• On the flip side, the Oakland Raiders are middle-of-the-pack allowing a 5.5% sack rate and giving up 18 sacks so far this season.

Summary

The Raiders should have no problem moving the ball against the KC Chiefs defense. Surprisingly, the Raiders rank first in passing explosive plays. The Raiders were very successful against the Baltimore Ravens, and I think they have similar success against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs should commit to the run, as Las Vegas is a funnel defense; especially running away from Maxx Crosby. If the Chiefs use the run to control the TOP (time of possession), their winning chances will go up. I feel like this is another game Patrick Mahomes struggles, so I would not use him in DFS and/or Lineup Showdown leagues. Obviously this can backfire because he is still the best QB in the league, but has been struggling of late against good pass defenses.

Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, and Darren Waller each could have a massive day so use them in fantasy football DFS and/or Lineup Showdown leagues.

Slate Matchup Tidbits

For fantasy football DFS and Lineup Showdown Leagues:

• Teams to target with a both rush and pass explosive plus matchups to likely score a lot: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angelos Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, and Washington Football Team (lowest confidence in WFT as TB’s DL will dictate against the WFT’s OL).
• Jalen Hurts has top-five potential against Denver Broncos as they struggle against RBs and running QBs.
• Dalvin Cook could finish this week as top RB as the LA Chargers rush defense yields 5.0 YPA (highest in the league) and the Vikings have the best rush explosive rush matchup this week.