Fantasy Football 2021: Shulman’s Sleepers – Week 14

I’ve been relegated to the couch at night this week. It’s not because I’m in the proverbial doghouse, thankfully, though you would expect my nights to be more sleepless than not. Instead, as my wife continues to recover from a broken knee, we’re both sleeping better with a little more space than we’d otherwise have given the amount of pillows that now occupy my boudoir.

To be fair, the couch has been a once-a-week luxury sleeper for me, as the NFL games regularly begin at 7pm here in the Netherlands, ending around 2am. That’s when the late game begins! So, while I struggle to make it through the entire afternoon slate, I make sure to again take my place on the couch early Monday mornings to catch up on what I’ve missed. 

That’s neither here nor there. What is here is Week 14; while Week 13 lies back there, taunting me with the reality of my fantasy football takes. Thankfully, I hit .500 this weekend, so there’s still an outside chance of that magical 40% on the season. Before I can get to work on making it right, let’s find out what went wrong (and also right) in Week 13.

Week 13 Review

Wins

Taysom Hill, QB (#14 overall) – Somehow Derek Carr threw me off plugging in Taysom everywhere. Thankfully, it didn’t matter in those matchups anyway. Even though he looked absolutely terrible, we should know by now that you start Hill in fantasy football if he starts in reality.

As the QB4 on the week, Hill’s line was more or less what I expected; which was more or less what he’s always done as a starter over the past two seasons. With just two passing TDs and four picks, his 100 yard effort on the ground saved his day, making him a bonafide QB1 as long as Sean Payton keeps rolling him out there. Big W.

Logan Thomas, TE (#70 overall, but TE5) – I went back to the well with Thomas this week. It was a rare move for me in this column, and it paid dividends. Even if I’m edging the thin line between wins and losses with this one. Thomas technically didn’t hit 15 fantasy points, finishing with 13.8. But he was the fantasy football PPR TE5 on the week. That’s enough to get it done in the world of the Shulman Sleeper. Now with what appears to be a serious knee injury, it’s doubtful Thomas appears in this column again this season. Still, I’ll take the W. 

Losses

Nyheim Hines, RB – Of course I expect Jonathan Taylor to go off, but the Colts should look to utilize their back up in games that get out of hand, as this one did. That was the reasoning anyway. Instead, the highly-efficient RB remained highly efficient while remaining unstartable in fantasy football. His 8.6 fantasy points were his most since Week 9 and fourth-most on the season, yet he only saw six touches. Which, sadly, is roughly his per game average on the year. The PPR RB27 didn’t kill you, but Hines won’t appear on this sleeper list again. L.

AJ Green, WR – The fantasy football PPR WR74 saw just one target this week. Kyler Murray and James Conner mostly took care of business on the day. DeAndre Hopkins had an early TD and Green was the third leading receiver for the Cards, but with just 123 total yards through the air and only 15 attempts from Murray, Green was a huge bust. It is what it is; and it is another L for me.

Now 15-37 on the season, I’ve accumulated a 28.8% hit rate to-date. Is that great? Not exactly. Would I be ecstatic with 40%? Yes. Yes I would. Where does that leave me now? Needing a few more 50%+ weeks to close out the fantasy football season. 

As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining sleepers and wins and losses

1. 1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100. 
2. 2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 overall, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.

With the business now out of the way, let’s couch it in favor of some pleasure – hopefully – with a look at this week’s sleeper calls. 

Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 14

QB: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Fantasy Pros ECR: QB14

Someone is bound to emerge from the QB2/3 depths and become a QB1 this week. I really like the odds of Derek Carr, Taylor Heinicke and Ryan Tannehill to do just that. Heck, even Jimmy Garoppolo and Teddy Bridgewater have a chance. For better or worse, my money is once again on Cam Newton this week.

Newton struggled when we last saw him in Week 12. The Miami defense contained him as a rusher and forced him into multiple poor decisions as a passer. The performance was so bad that offensive coordinator Joe Brady is now former-offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

Truthfully, Cam should not have been throwing as much as he was – and the throwing part of the quarterback position may have also brought about the downfall of Sam Darnold in Carolina – but a banged up starting running back and a poor efficiency in the run game may have forced Brady’s hand more often than not this season. Either way, Brady’s now out and Jeff Nixon will helm the offense in his stead. 

Given the transition and uncertainty on O, Christian McCaffrey’s season-ending injury, and the fact that the Panthers still have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs in a woeful NFC, I’m expecting a vintage Cam Newton performance this week.

Prediction: 180 yards, 1 TD; 12 rushes, 60 yards, 1 TD = 23.2 points

RB: Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

Fantasy Pros ECR: RB35

I get it. Javonte Williams was everything we could have imagined he’d be with a workhorse role last week in Gordon’s absence. But guess what? Melvin Gordon is on track to play this week, where the Broncos invite face the Lions at home.

Just because Javonte is excellent doesn’t mean he should get all the work anyway. Fantasy football skews our view of the game toward statistical outputs. It’s likely much better to preserve Javonte for his career than ride him in a season that probably won’t amount to a playoff berth. In this respect, the Denver coaching staff is doing the right thing: riding out Gordon who is likely gone after this year, and protecting Williams from injury when they don’t need him. All this said, I’d expect Gordon to see his usual load in this one, if active. 

His usual load would amount to double-digit touches and probably a touchdown; given the poor opponent at home in a suddenly-prolific two-pronged rushing attack. 

Prediction: 15 carries, 80 yards; 2 receptions, 15 yards; 1 TD = 17.5 points

WR: Laquon Treadwell, Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantasy Pros ECR: WR68

There’s not a whole lot to like outside of the top-40 this week; so I’m breaking my rule of not relying on bad teams in this column and going super deep with Laquon Treadwell this week. 

Coming in as the fantasy football PPR WR68, you’d assume Treadwell is more of a boom or bust play; but that’s not the case at all. Fact is, since Jamal Agnew went down in Week 11, Treadwell has stepped in to absorb his looks.

Against Atlanta in Week 12, Treadwell turned 8 targets into 4 for 53. Last week against the Rams, he went 4 for 62 on 5 targets last week. For whatever reason, he’s now got the keys to volume in the Jaguars offense, which appears to be worthy of flex consideration.

This week is different, though. Treadwell and the Jags faceoff against the Titans, who are top-5 in giving up fantasy football points to QBs and their WRs this year. Expect Trevor Lawrence to feed Treadwell, and he’s likely to hit paydirt as well.

Prediction: 4 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD = 16.0 points

TE: Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks

Fantasy Pros ECR: TE15

Much to the chagrin of DK Metcalf managers, Gerald Everett has seen a steady dose of targets over the last month of the season. In his last four games, Everett has averaged almost 7 targets per game and twice finished as the 6^th best PPR TE on the week.

Now Everett gets the Houston Texans who hemorrhage fantasy football points to just about every position. While this is a great game to help get Russell Wilson and Metcalf back on track, they’ll likely continue to utilize Everett; both down the seam and on a few designed plays each game. Especially with the running game banged up, it’s possible Seattle uses the short passing game to supplement some of what they haven’t been able to accomplish on the ground.

I’m confident in the looks and yardage for Everett this week, though a trip to the end zone will still be required.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points

That’s it for this week. I’ll be sure to get my spot on the sofa to watch all the games this weekend. Make sure you grab yours and good luck in the hunt for that all-elusive fantasy playoff berth!