I’m sleeping well this week. Why you ask? Probably because I hit on a few fantasy football sleepers from last week, even though Ronald Jones was still a huge L. As always, I aim to get better each week.
Before we get accountable, let’s just take a moment to relish the fact that football is back. I almost don’t remember the feeling of no Red Zone Sundays or watching the GamePass 40-minute tape of all the games on Mondays. It’s been a wild ride, but it’s here and it… is… glorious.
Maybe I’m finally sleeping because my heart is now full.
Anyway, enough of the sappy mumbo jumbo. Time to talk wins and losses. We’re improving but not there yet.
Week 1 Review
Wins
Sterling Shepard, WR – Shepard was the WR42 last week. I nailed this one from Thursday night for my first W of the year. Shepard was the the fantasy football WR21, and finished with 17.5 points. Shepard didn’t find the end zone, but he did catch 9 of 10 targets for 94 yards. He was 58 overall on the week – which includes QBs, kickers and D/ST. Huge W.
Robert Tonyan, TE – Tonyan was ranked as the TE12 by ECR, and he finished as the PPR TE5. His 14.2 points didn’t hit the 15 point threshold, but TEs are a special bunch that require a TD to hit. I’m chalking this up as a win, even if I am fading Tonyan this season overall.
Losses
Matt Stafford, QB – Stafford finished as the QB19. I need to remember that a non-rushing QB needs a Tom Brady-esque performance to even sniff the top-12. A third TD, which is what I called for, would’ve made Stafford QB9. But it wasn’t to be. This one was an L.
Ronald Jones, RB – Jones was the RB49 in Week 2. I went all in on RoJo, and lost all my chips. Would it be foolish to assume Leonard Fournette takes over a Bruce Arians’ backfield? Maybe. But, at this point, you can’t start Rojo until you see it; like everyone else was saying last week. L.
2-2 this week. 2-6 overall. We’ll forever endeavor to be better.
Finally, as a reminder, here’s how we’re defining sleepers and wins and losses
- 1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
- 2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 at each position, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 3
QB: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB13
I’m not confident in betting on the Giants offense, but Daniel Jones’ matchup and rushing ability help me feel better about this pick.
Atlanta has been a porous unit through two weeks as the 2nd-worst fantasy defense this season, per Fantasy Pros. They’ve given up 80 points so far, with massive games from Jalen Hurts in Week 1 and Tom Brady in Week 2. Both QBs finished as top-6 options at the position when they faced the Falcons.
It’s possible this is a trap game for the G-men, but I’m banking on a stable rushing floor with what should be his best effort through the air this season.
Prediction: 290 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 7 rushes, 35 yards, 1 TD = 27.1 points
RB: Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB54
In case you couldn’t tell, I’m expecting a bit of a shootout at MetLife Stadium this Sunday. I’ve already mentioned the Falcons’ ineptitude on defense, but the Giants haven’t been much better. The Broncos and WFT each eclipsed 27 points, and the weapons on the Falcons might not be as much of a downgrade from those two clubs as you might think.
Mike Davis is in a nice bounce-back spot, and Ridley and Pitts are likely to have nice games. Still, there’s room for Cordarrelle Patterson to continue his fantasy football dominance. Though his 33% snap count remains unchanged, Patterson is getting a ton of looks through the air and ground; looking much more explosive than Davis in the process.
With a massive game against Tampa and a moderate game against Philly in Week 1, I expect Patterson falls somewhere in between this week.
Prediction: 8 carries, 45 yards; 4 receptions, 35 yards; 1 total TD = 18.0 points
WR: Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR41
Rondale Moore is being used expertly by Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals staff so far this season. Last week, he turned 8 targets into 7 receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown. But Moore created most of those yards on his own, posting 90+ yards after the catch, which works well with his skill set.
The point, of course, is to get Moore the ball in space and let him work. According to Player Profiler, Moore has 9.1 YAC per target, good for third in the NFL in YAC. Additionally, he’s received a near 20% target rate while only seeing a 42% snap share. Clearly, the Cards are dialing it up for their dynamic playmaker.
Eventually, defenses will learn to key on Moore when he steps on the field, though that will only open up more looks for DeAndre Hopkins and the rest of the offense. However, I’m not banking on that against the Jags. Fire up Moore this week.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 80 yards, 1 td = 19.0 points
TE: Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE16
Once again, we’re acknowledging that TEs are different in fantasy football and are looking for a top-6 option that sits outside the top-10. That basically means the guys needs to score. Last week, we hit on Robert Tonyan. This week, I’m calling for a big game from Austin Hooper.
This week, without Jarvis Landry, Hooper should dominate mid-level targets as he and Kareem Hunt look to pick up the receiving slack. Hooper caught all five of his targets for 40 yards last week. If he would’ve found the end zone, he would’ve finished as the TE4 in fantasy football.
I fully expect OBJ to be eased in this week (if he plays at all), and Hunt to be involved a ton in the passing game. There’s a chance that David Njoku and Harrison Bryant get even more work, but I’m banking on Hooper to get the score.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 1 td = 14.5 points
Week 3 is on the way. Good luck, and here’s to a restful Sunday night after these sleepers pop off on Sunday afternoon.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.