Thursday Night Boom and Bust
The Carolina Panthers -7.5 vs. the Houston Texans (O/U 43.5)
Week 2 was a fantasy football mess. So many injuries, it seemed like a bloodbath. All of the 49er’s RB’s got beat up. Jarvis Landry left the game early in a smash spot against the Texans. Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott fizzled. Tua, Tyrod, Dalton, Baker (he came back), and Wentz (again!), oh my!
It was a scary week for fantasy football managers and NFL fans alike. Let’s all hope week three sees a little less chaos.
Accountability Time
Every week I will give my take on one player going boom and one player busting you up for Thursday and Monday Night games. Check us out for all your player management and to get a breakdown on how you can win your league.
Last Thursday, I picked Antonio Gibson to boom, and Saquon Barkley to bust. I went 1-1. Antonio Gibson wasn’t awful, but he was outshined yet again by J.D. McKissic. In order for AG to take the next step, he will have to be in the two-minute offense. Barring injury to JD, that will not happen this year.
As the boss of this fine online rag (Thomas Christopher) has pointed out, Gibson is a terrible pass-blocker. This keeps him off the field for easy points in two-minute situations. Week 2 saw JD’s two-minute role cost AG a touchdown.
Couple this with the fact that WFT loves McKissic, and AG will once again be relegated to a split role. He will be touchdown dependent, he will not see 60 targets, and he is due for a touchdown regression from last year (when he scored 11). AG has zero touchdowns through week two. As President of the Antonio Gibson fan club, barring an injury to JD, GiBson will be a low-end RB2 on the season. I’m bummed to face reality.
On the other hand, Saquon Barkley is being out-rushed by his QB. Daniel Jones had another fine day rushing and threw a couple of his famous ‘Danny Dimes’ for touchdowns. Jones is not a good QB, but in fantasy football, he is QB5 on the year. Fantasy football is not reality; it’s time to acknowledge Jones will be a borderline QB1 on the season if his rushing continues.
Barkley has struggled out of the gate. Saquon managers are rightfully frustrated, but major knee injuries take time to completely recover from. Barkley needs to develop confidence and his offensive line needs to develop running lanes. To this point, both have been shaky. Barkley should bounce back in Week 3 against the Falcons, but the matchup with WFT was too overwhelming. He did indeed bust with only 8 fantasy points on the day.
Stay patient but stay aware.
On to week 3!
Player to Boom!
Robby Anderson
The easy money would be to take CMC, but you all know that already. A solid Flex player throughout the year will be Robby Anderson, and this looks like a tasty matchup. Anderson didn’t do much against the Saints, but he didn’t have to. With the Sam Darnold connection already established from their time together in New York, Robby should find room to roam against a poor Texan’s defense.
The Texans rank 17th in total yards surrendered, 18th in passing yards surrendered, and 20th in points scored against. They are a bad defense and I fully expect these numbers to drop further after this week.
Robby should be able to go off in what has been a slow start to the year. He scored in the opener against the Jets, but he is currently tied with dynamic rookie Terrace Marshall with nine targets on the year. Last week, DJ Moore went off with an excellent game. This week should be Robby’s turn. I like Robby’s deep-ball ability against a Texans team that struggles to rush the passer.
Carolina should win this game by two scores or more; it feels like a game where the playmakers get to eat. I believe DJM has finally arrived as the alpha in Carolina, but he takes a backseat to CMC and to Robby Anderson tonight. Darnold wants to get his boy going after signing a two-year extension before the season, and Robby is looking to make good on his contract. This is a perfect start to fire up Robby in the Flex and watch him cook a struggling Texans team.
Projection: 6 catches, 105 yards, 1 touchdown
Player to Bust
Brandin Cooks
The Texans are a bad football team. This week, they got a whole lot worse. Tyrod Taylor is once again on the shelf with a hamstring injury. I can’t help to feel for Tyrod. His career seems to be one missed opportunity after another. This means third-round rookie, Davis Mills will get the start. This does not bode well for Brandin Cooks.
Brandin Cooks is the Rodney Dangerfield of both fantasy football and real football. He gets no respect, no respect. Now on his fourth team in eight years, Cooks is once again cooking. If Cooks would have stayed with the Saints he could have had a Tyler Lockett type of career. Due to forces outside of his control he has been traded, and traded, and traded again. With an ADP in the 100’s this season, Brandin Cooks was a 9th or 10th round pick that is currently sitting at WR11 on the season.
The Best of the Bad
Cooks has a whopping 33.8% target share; 21 targets through two games. He is a product of a poor football team needing to pass. Tyrod Taylor’s been rightfully focusing on the team’s only weapon, and Brandin Cooks is a very good wide receiver.
I believe his hot start will stall this Thursday night. Carolina is the best defense in both points scored (21) and yards given up (380) this season. It’s early; the Panthers have played the Jets and Saints, but so far they are playing lights out football on defense. This trend will continue playing on a short week against a 3rd round rookie QB.
The Carolina defense should be the hottest pick-up in all leagues that have a DST. Coach Culley will play it conservative with his raw rookie. Mills has talent, but he’s raw. It’s a short week and the Texans are a bad football team.
The Panthers should try to shut down Cooks, use their front four to harass Mills, and dominate the game.
Projection: 4 catches, 48 yards, and zero touchdowns.
Have a great fantasy football week, good people. The fantasy football season goes so fast. It takes ten years to slog through the offseason, then the Super Bowl arrives in what seems like 10 minutes. Slow down and enjoy the ride.
Final Score Prediction: Carolina 34 Houston 10
Give me Carolina and the over for my gambling friends.
