Over the past few years, I have waited untill Round 10+ to draft my first TE. Instead of using a premium pick to take one of the top TEs, I let other fantasy football managers draft them while I obtain value at RB and WR.
Recently however, I have been realizing just how valuable some of the top TE options can actually be. So this year I’ve drafted TEs in the first three rounds multiple times. I have not reached above ADP, but if one of the top 3 guys falls to my 3rd pick I am happy to grab them. While the talent pool does drop off dramatically after the top three TEs, there are still great options at the position.
Top Tiers
These first three tight ends make up my first tier. These are the players I am willing to take in the first three rounds. They are all going to be major parts of their teams passing game.
1 – Travis Kelce (ECR TE1, ADP TE1 12th Overall)
After five straight years of being the best TE in fantasy football, it should be no surprise to see Travis Kelce at the top of most TE rankings. As one of the top two targets in the Chiefs offense, Kelce should be in line for another big season.
Kelce currently has first round ADP, so you will have to invest an early pick to acquire him. If I am drafting near the turn (of Round 1 to 2) I can see why it’s a good idea to draft Kelce. You can pair him with a top-12 RB and win your TE matchup on a weekly basis without sacrificing much at the RB position.
2 – Darren Waller (ECR TE2, ADP TE2, 26th Overall)
After back-to-back seasons with over 1,100 receiving yards, Darren Waller is primed for another big year. He is one of Derek Carr’s favorite targets in the offense.
This season, the Raider’s are projected to be trailing in most of their games, meaning they could be reliant on the passing game. Waller did have a career high in touchdowns last year, so touchdown regression is expected. Waller is currently being drafted in early Round 3, and I am happy taking him with that pick.
3 – George Kittle (ECR TE3, ADP TE3, 27th Overall)
After back-to-back seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards and five touchdowns, George Kittle missed half of 2020 due to injury. However, he still was able to have 63 targets, 48 receptions, and 634 receiving yards with two touchdowns. Not only was Kittle still productive, but he was also one of the most efficient TEs by nearly every metric. With no major changes to the pass-catchers in San Francisco, Kittle should continue to be a top target. He should succeed regardless of whoever is under center. I am happy to use an early 3rd round pick if Kelce or Waller are off the board.
The Next Tier
These next three tight ends are a clear drop off from the tiers above them. I think that they all offer the chance to be a weekly starter, but they do have risks. I like all of these players this season, but am less likely to draft them at their ADP.
4 – Mark Andrews (ECR TE4, ADP TE6, 52nd Overall)
Unlike the players ahead of him, Mark Andrews has yet to have a 1,000 yard season. He has been heavily involved in the red zone for the past two seasons. In 2020, Andrews had 17 red zone targets and turned four of them into touchdowns. I am anticipating similar red zone usage in the 2021 season. With injuries plaguing the Ravens WR room I would not be surprised to see Andrews get off to a very strong start.
Mark Andrews is on the cusp of joining the elite tight ends.
2020 (among TE):
PPR PPG: 12.2 (4th)
Route%: 97.3% (3rd)
Target Share: 24.86% (3rd)
Red Zone Target Share: 31.37% (3rd)
Average Target Depth: 10.2 (4th)
Yards per Route: 2.1 (4th)He's still only 26 years old.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 26, 2021
5 – T.J. Hockenson (ECR TE5, ADP TE5, 57th Overall)
As a 2nd year player, TJ Hockenson finished 2nd on the Lions in nearly every receiving metric. With the departure of Marvin Jones, and a questionable supporting cast, there is a possibility that Hockenson can be the leader in the receiving game for the Lions this year.
Sure, Jared Goff is a downgrade from Matthew Stafford. But in 2020, the Ram’s TEs had 122 targets and 85 receptions for nearly 1,000 yards with five touchdowns. If Goff targets Hockenson in a similar way, he could be in for a pretty solid year.
6 – Kyle Pitts (ECR TE6, ADP TE4, 47th Overall)
There are high expectations for Kyle Pitts as a rookie. I expect the size and speed freak to have an impressive season, but I am not sure if he can have the greatest rookie TE season of all time. His college production, measurables, and landing spot all are reasons to be optimistic. With the departure of Julio Jones there should be plenty of available targets. Based on his fantasy football ADP, I do not expect have Pitts on any of my rosters.
The Last Tier
This next tier of TEs are options I’m targeting on my fantasy football redraft teams if I miss out on the top three. This list only covers my top-10 TEs, but I think this tier is much larger. There are a lot of TEs that have top-12 potential. These next four TEs all should have a big role in their offenses and offer plenty of upside.
7 – Robert Tonyan (ECR TE10, ADP TE10, 96th Overall)
The 4th year veteran had a career-year in 2020, finishing as the TE3. With the surrounding cast in Green Bay not changing significantly, I am expecting Robert Tonyan to be used in a similar way. Tonyan’s 59 targets ranked 24th at the TE position in 2020. However, he led all tight ends with 11 receiving touchdowns.
It will be difficult to convert over 20% of his receptions into touchdown again. Tonyan was one of the most efficient tight ends in nearly all metrics in the 2020 season. I expect another big year, but the TD regression should drop him down a little bit.
8 – Noah Fant (ECR TE7, ADP TE7, 79th Overall)
In his first two years, Noah Fant has shown why the Broncos used a first round pick on him. Not only was he heavily targeted in both seasons, but he produced consistently. Even though the Broncos started four different players at quarterback in 2020 (1 being a WR), Noah Fant still had an impressive season. He caught 62 of his 93 targets for 673 yards and three touchdowns. With what should be a more steady quarterback situation in 2021, I expect Fant to continue to improve.
9 – Logan Thomas (ECR TE8, ADP TE8, 85th Overall)
In his breakout 2020 season, Logan Thomas finished as the TE6 on the season in Half-PPR scoring. Thomas had 110 targets, tied for 2nd on the team. With so many targets, he was able to be less efficient while still being relevant in fantasy football.
But with an improved set of pass catchers surrounding him, Thomas need to be more efficient. So far this Preseason, Thomas has caught two of his three targets, both for at least 24 yards. If these are the kinds of targets that Thomas is getting, he could easily finish higher than the TE9. But I am not willing to pay the price to get him at this point with so many changes to the offense around him.
Keep an eye on this Fitz-Logan Thomas connection… @WashingtonNFL
📺: #WASvsNE on @nflnetwork (or check your local listings)
📱: https://t.co/QXoNWCGPHr pic.twitter.com/ChQtuXpCKX— NFL (@NFL) August 13, 2021
10 – Irv Smith Jr. (ECR TE13, ADP TE14, 127th Overall)
Irv Smith has been fairly productive on limited work in his first two seasons. In 2020, he caught 30 of 43 targets for 365 yards and five touchdowns in just 13 games. All five of Smith’s touchdowns came on targets from within the red zone.
With the departure of Kyle Rudolph, I expect a few more red zone targets to become available for Smith. I originally had Irv a bit higher, but Mike Zimmer has said that Smith’s role will not change dramatically with the departure of Kyle Rudolph.
