Sometimes drafting a player in fantasy football feels like going to the store and picking up a six-pack of ginger ale. Nobody really loves ginger ale. If you ask anyone their top ten drinks, ginger ale would rarely crack anyone’s list.
However, every once in a while, ginger ale absolutely hits. You know the times. When your stomach is bothering you and the sweet taste of Canada Dry is the exact thing you need. Ginger ale hits when a Sprite just doesn’t do the trick. Nobody gets excited when you walk into a party and see a two-liter of Canada Dry, but nobody is complaining when you start pouring it up either.
There are picks in your fantasy football draft that feel like this too. Guys that you pick in the middle rounds that don’t really inspire confidence. Guys that you draft with your fifth-round pick that leave a bitter taste in your mouth. For many, Mike Davis is that guy.
According to FantasyPros ADP data, Davis is going in drafts as the RB26 behind guys like Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson, Myles Gaskin, and Raheem Mostert.
Mike Davis is the ginger ale of your fantasy football drafts. He’s a guy that you draft expecting to be steady, and nothing special. I’m here to tell you that Mike Davis could be a guy that leads your fantasy roster to glory. Here’s why.
Opportunity Share
Currently, Mike Davis is being backed up by Cordarrelle Patterson, Quadree Ollison, and D’Onta Foreman. There are 297 carries combined between the three of them. It is unlikely that any of those three guys take meaningful work from Davis. In 2020, Falcons running back Todd Gurley saw 210 touches, and Davis is in line to at least match that, and odds are that he sees more touches than that. The other running backs who split time with Gurley were Ito Smith and Brian Hill, and neither of them are on the roster anymore, freeing up more work for Davis.
The Falcons ran the ball 410 times in 2020. Assume Mike Davis sees 50% of those touches and ends 2021 with at least 205 rushing attempts. Since 2016, 62% of running backs that saw at least 205 carries in a season ended the year with at least 1000 rushing yards.
In 2020, eight running backs ran for more than 1000 yards. All eight of them ended the season as a top ten running back in Half-PPR formats.
Receiving Work
In his time as the starter in Carolina last season, Davis showed that he has some receiving chops. He finished the season fifth in the league in targets at the running back position, and fourth in receptions.
In 2020, Matt Ryan targeted his running backs 90 times. Ryan has never been hesitant to target his running backs in the passing game. The Falcons offensive line is a serious weak point, meaning that Ryan could find himself targeting his outlet Mike Davis early and often. Davis is a legitimate three down running back and could end the season with 40 receptions.
Scoring Opportunities
The Falcons were 16th in the league in points scored last season. However, their league-average ovvense should see an uptick in performance with the hiring of former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith as their head coach. The Titans were top ten offenses the last two seasons under the watch of Arthur Smith, and they were carried on the back of all-world running back Derrick Henry.
Obviously, Mike Davis doesn’t hold a candle to Derrick Henry when it comes to size or talent, but he does have a chance to match Henry’s workload. Henry was second in the league in red zone carries in 2020, seeing 59 of them. Henry scored 13 touches on his carries inside the 20.
Again, Davis and Henry are completely different players, but if Davis’ workload looks somewhat similar to Henry’s, Davis could end the season with double digit touchdowns. The Falcons defense is young and growing, and they may find themself in shootouts all season. If Davis proves himself as a three down back that secures significant red zone work, watch out.
Projection
As of the writing of this article, Mike Davis has no competition in the Atlanta backfield. Davis can easily hit all three of the benchmarks discussed: 1000 yards, 40 receptions, 10 touchdowns. Since 2016, every running back that has hit those statistical thresholds has finished the season as an RB1.
Davis may seem like just a guy due to his past performance, but in 2020, Davis was a legitimate fantasy football asset. He finished the season as the RB15, and that’s with a couple of games where he either didn’t play, or shared time with Christian McCaffrey.
Don’t think of Mike Davis as just ginger ale. He’s someone you should be excited to have on your team. And at RB26, he’s a player you should be acquiring.
Mike Davis has legitimate RB1 potential, and in four months, he could be the catalyst to league winning teams across the world.
If not gingerale what should I consider him? Also ginger ale great mixer with whiskey