In 2020, there were four top-24 (PPR) fantasy football wide receivers in their 2nd year. All four were outside the top-20 in their rookie year, and all four made significant strides in year two. DK Metcalf went from WR33 to WR7. A.J. Brown went from WR21 to WR14. Guys tend to make leaps from year one to year two.
Last year featured stellar rookie receivers. Many guys made a name for themselves right off the bat. Below I will tell you about five 2nd year receivers ready to upgrade, take a leap, and break out in 2021.
Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins is my favorite 2nd-year prospect not named Justin Jefferson (Justin did not make this list because he already dominated in year 1). Higgins is ready to be the next star from the 2020 NFL Draft class and his ADP is 65.6, which lands him squarely in rounds 5 or 6. I like Tee better than many names ahead of his current ADP, including Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, and Odell Beckham Jr.
Many fantasy football managers may be scared off of Tee because the Bengals drafted Ja’Marr Chase fifth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Chase is exceptional, I will tell no lies. There is concern that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will revert right back to being the dynamic duo they were at LSU in a record-breaking 2019. I’m here to tell you to not be scared.
The Bengals offense has more than enough room to hold two top-24 receivers. And while I believe Chase will be a great pro, traditionally it takes a year for rookies to make noise. This may be diluted due to Chase’s talent and relationship with Burrow, but on the other side, Chase will have Tee Higgins to take pressure off the rookie.
The Tee Takeover
Tee was on pace to have a historic rookie year before Joe Burrow blew out his knee in week 11; up to that point, Tee had 43 grabs on 71 targets. The Bengals are not a great football team as it stands. They still have work to do and will be playing from behind often. Last year, Joe Burrow was on pace to throw 640 passes through 16 games, which would have led the league.
There will be plenty of opportunity for Tee Higgins as he ascends in year two. Tee had a 17.5% target share with Burrow despite not having having a single target in week 1. With A.J. Green and his 104 targets moving out to Arizona, Tee and Chase will have plenty of room to feast. I foresee Tee making the jump from WR28 to WR14 in year 2.
Michael Pittman
In my model, I recently discovered a profile of what WR1’s look like. That is, I looked at the last seven seasons of all receivers that finished in the top-12 in a PPR format. As it turns out there is a profile of what these receivers look like. Without going into too much detail, essentially, WR1’s are big, have high draft capital, and are target monsters.
Michael Pittman is a big dude, he has Round 2 draft capital, and he has room to grow in his second year. At 6’4 220 lbs, running a 4.4 forty, Pittman is a rare specimen. With dink and dunk master Philip Rivers now retired, Pittman’s WR76 last year should rise to near-WR3 levels; that is, a top-36 receiver.
Pittman will still share targets with T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, good receiving backs, and Jack Doyle at tight end; however, Carson Wentz likes big targets. This is the year he takes a jump in Colt’s receiving room and never looks back.
Pittman’s target share was 11% last year. If he can get that up to 18-20% I see Michael Pittman as a top-36 wide receiver (WR3), making a significant jump from year one to year two. His current ADP is 104.3 and I like him more than DeVante Parker, Marquise Brown, and his own teammate TY Hilton. All are currently being drafted ahead of Pittman. Look for Mike Pitt to take a leap and make his presence known in the AFC South.
Jerry Jeudy
Coming out of Alabama, Jerry Jeudy was a marquee name that was drafted by a franchise with poor QB play. Do not sleep on Jerry Jeudy. His profile aligns perfectly with wide receivers that have dominated fantasy football for the last decade. Jeudy is 6’1, 193 lbs, and is a great route runner. He reminds me of fellow Tide member Calvin Ridley. With 1st round draft capital, Jeudy is ready to be excel in 2021.
Jeudy had a few drops last year and for some reason, this is leading to his fade. I however, will not fade Jeudy; I’m buying shares wherever I can. With a current ADP of 126.6 (WR50), his stock has slid to bottom of the basement, bargain levels. Jeudy had a stellar 20% target share last year, and even with Courtland Sutton coming back, I fully expect JJ to maintain and even improve on his target share. Jeudy’s catch percentage was low (42%) which lends to the poor accuracy of Jeudy’s QB’s last year.
Broncos QB Woes
The Broncos QB situation has not drastically changed. If Drew Lock does not perform up to his potential, Teddy Bridgwater and his accuracy will replace Lock. Jeudy ended the year with a 52/856/3 stat line, and I fully expect these numbers to rise. I could see a 75/1050/7 state line given the extra game, and 2nd-year familiarity.
Remember, all of these wide receivers entered the NFL in a unique year. With Covid-19 wreaking havoc on training camps, OTA’s, and preseason, rookie wide receivers had little opportunity to adjust to the league. That won’t be the case in their second year, and I see Jerry Jeudy making the leap from WR45 to WR23.
Denzel Mims
There was so much talent at the wide receiver position in 2020 that Denzel Mims was completely forgotten on a forgettable 2020 New York Jets team. Mims got off to a slow start battling injuries for the early part of the season (playing only nine games) but he is a baller.
Mims is 6’3, 207 lbs, and ran a 4.3 forty at the NFL combine. His RAS (Relative Athletic Score) is 9.77 with an elite explosion profile (for those that aren’t familiar with RAS check out this link). The RAS is an excellent indicator of displaying pure athleticism, and Mims’s profile is elite. The only Wide Receiver with a better RAS score from the 2020 rookie class is Chase Claypool.
With the Jets QB situation and overall franchise a complete mess, it is easy to brush Mims under a rug and stay away from all Jets players in fantasy football. This will be a mistake.
Zach Wilson is raw, but supremely talented. He is going to love an athletic freak that can fly on the outside like Denzel Mims. Wilson had a lot of deep, jump balls in college and if this is his MO. in the NFL as well, then Denzel Mims will be his best friend.
The Jets did sign Corey Davis to a lucrative contract and this will keep Mims’s target share lower than I would like, but there will still be plenty of balls to go around with the Jets projected to trail in the majority of their games.
Jets Other Pieces
The Jets do have some solid pieces on the offensive line and a nice receiver room with Corey Davis, rookie stud Elijah Moore, and solid vet Jamison Crowder. But none of the receivers have Denzel Mims’s elite playmaking ability.
If Mims stays healthy I expect he will have 90 targets, 65 grabs, for 800 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Corey Davis has missed time throughout his career and with him knicked already (as of this writing) Mims has the ability to be a dominant WR1 on the Jets. Jamison Crowder is a possession receiver, Elijah Moore is a rookie learning the ropes, and Denzel Mims should be Zach Wilson’s favorite big-play target used on 50/50 balls and red zone targets. The forgotten man of the 2020 class won’t be forgotten for long. Remember Denzel Mims on draft day.
Bryan Edwards
Give em to me big, fast, and strong – said John Gruden, probably. Bryan Edwards is big, fast, and strong. In my wide receiver model, the average size of a top-12 fantasy football wide receivers is 6’1, 206 lbs. When I am looking for ascending wide receiver I am looking for big, fast, strong guys with high draft capital.
The average draft capital of WR1’s is pick 78. Bryan Edwards fits the model to a tee. Add in Derek Carr saying that Edwards reminds him of Davante Adams when they played together at Fresno State; and that Edwards has the making of a receiver that can make a name for himself.
Bryan Edwards is 6’3 and 212lbs. He was the 81st overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft and he has an underwhelming receiver room to compete for targets. Darren Waller is still going to own the targets in this offense and Henry Ruggs should have a larger presence this year as well, but Edwards fits the making of a WR1. With his current ADP of 199 and taken as the WR109 in drafts, he is all but free in all formats.
Potential has Many Names
As with all of these players, I am not saying they will become Davante Adams overnight. I am not calling for them to make Pro Bowls or become All-Pro. But with Justin Jefferson stealing all the attention of last year’s wide receiver class, I want to remind fantasy football players that there was a lot of talent in the 2020 draft.
These five players have the ability to outmatch their ADP and become reliable middle to late-round picks you can use to dominate your league.
Making a jump can mean many things. For Tee Higgins, he should make a jump into the top-15 this year; where guys like Pittman, Mims, and Edwards will be seen as valuable WR3’s that you can get for a steal. Fantasy football is about value and volume. There is a path for all five of these 2nd years studs to greatly increase their target share, and to be had without spending much draft capital. Put these guys in your queue and while the rest of your league is picking up backup running backs in the 10th round, these wide receivers will be available and looking to fill a spot on your roster. Do not sleep on these 2nd-year ballers!
