Fantasy Football Alchemy, using start percentages and final fantasy points to determine the most consistent options in 2023.
Every week, fantasy football managers are forced to make critical decisions on who to sit and who to start. From the time we draft our team, we are immediately faced with the realization that some players will be harder to manage than others. For most of us, the top player at each position on our squad is an auto-start option that requires no further research. But what do we do to help us fill out the rest of our lineup? Some of those back-end flex spots on the team can be the hardest to fill and leave us with nail-biting decisions. This is Fantasy Football Alchemy and is intended to give you a consistent baseline for those tough start and sit conundrums. It’s a way to gauge which of those boom or bust type players tend to come through more often when started.
Fantasy Football Alchemy will be a weekly article all season long. It will weigh the player’s start percentage vs. their fantasy points scored that week to give us a number dubbed by Adam Aizer of CBS Sports as ‘Started Fantasy Points’. I will be grouping these players into Trust Circles, with Circle 1 being the most trustworthy option.
Without further delay, let’s see what we learned from Week 1 of the fantasy football season.
Quarterbacks
QB Circle of Trust #1
The top tier in Week 1 was the trio of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. All three had good matchups and were started in over 85% of their leagues. When they put up solid fantasy days, the points were almost fully used.
QB Circle of Trust #2
We have a significant drop off of over five points to the second tier. It consists of Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson. The biggest fantasy day went to Tagovailoa. Unfortunately, he was also the lowest started in the group, so much of the production was left on benches. Look for Tua to be a huge riser next week.
Fields, Hurts and Allen were all in this tier as a result of their rostership percentages. Their started points were maximized, but their performance left something to be desired.
Watson was a mix of mediocre start percentage and mediocre production. It was, however, enough to get him into this elite tier.
QB Circle of Trust #3
Tier three is small as it only featured Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins. Cousins had by far the better game, but Jackson was started in three times as many fantasy leagues.
QB Circle of Trust #4
This is by far the largest group of fantasy football quarterbacks. It’s a mix of lower-started players and Joe Burrow who was a total bust – but was universally started.
Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Geno Smith, Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy, Russell Wilson, Jordan Love and Derek Carr all found themselves in this circle.
The group will separate itself as we progress into the season. Many of these players are streaming options, with Richardson being the lone star.
QB Circle of Trust #5
The names in this circle are mostly Superflex options. None possess a high ceiling with the expectation of Mac Jones who had a monster day. Jones was started in only 1% of Yahoo leagues, so this is why he is down here. His performance essentially went to waste in most fantasy football leagues.
Running Backs
RB Circle of Trust #1
There are no surprises in the top circle. It’s comprised solely of the elite and highly started players. The trio here consists of Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones. All three are elite, must-start options moving forward, but you already knew that. Jones is proving to be a steal relative to his ADP.
RB Circle of Trust #2
The second circle consists of three more highly started running backs who had solid games, but with slightly less production. Tony Pollard, Travis Etienne and Bijan Robinson were all elite options in Week 1. They will continue to be reliable throughout the season.
RB Circle of Trust #3
Circle three is full of studs, one dud, and a running back who sadly is lost for the season to injury. Let’s start with JK Dobbins who was off to a breakout season. That season came to an abrupt end and these will be the only points he accrues this season.
Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson were highly started, but all had significantly less upside as they didn’t catch a lot of passes. The entire trio will continue to be must-start players this season but with less upside than the top two circles.
Alexander Mattison made this circle as a result of high starting numbers and volume. He was an inefficient running back in Week 1 and will be a risky play all season long.
RB Circle of Trust #4
This is a massive circle that is composed of highly started players who all underperformed but produced enough to not be a total bust. The common theme with many of them is that they were the only RB in their backfield and were beneficiaries of heavy volume.
Joe Mixon, James Conner, Miles Sanders, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and James Cook were all bellcows in their respective offenses. There are better days ahead for these players once the production meets the workload.
Ken Walker, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Breece Hall, James Cook and Raheem Mostert were all part of a committee. This caused both their starting levels and production to keep them out of the truly elite circles. This is a key group to watch as changes to their usage could lead to a huge spike in value.
RB Circle of Trust #5
The final significant tier is mostly running backs in messy situations and low-scoring offenses. None of them can be trusted as more than flex plays with occasional boom weeks. This is another group to monitor for significant changes in usage as that’s the only way for them to move up in trust.
Wide Receivers
WR Circle of Trust #1
Circle 1 is full of monster Week 1 performers. Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson and Calvin Ridley were all started in over 90% of leagues and performed as such. The lone surprise was Brandon Aiyuk, who put up so many points that he made this level despite being started in 30% fewer leagues than the others.
WR Circle of Trust #2
The circle features three young superstars who were all 97% started or higher. Amon-Ra St Brown, Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith all played well in Week 1 and did not let their managers down. This is a set-and-forget group of star receivers.
WR Circle of Trust #3
Eight more receivers in this tier and eight more trustworthy studs. AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson, Keenan Allen, DK Metcalf, CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle and Deebo Samuel all had the benefit of high start numbers, but all put up middling numbers to drop them down a trust group.
WR Circle of Trust #4
This group is where we see some variation. It’s a group of receivers that were either highly started and underperformed or were lower started and overperformed. Either way, this will be a boom or bust group all season with the exception of JaMarr Chase who should move up and Mike Williams who will likely move down.
The receivers in this circle are mostly WR2s who have a flaw of some sort. Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin and Amari Cooper were all surprised with solid performances in Week 1, but can they keep it going?
WR Circle of Trust #5
From here it all goes downhill. This is the land of unreliable WR3s. Some will hit and some will miss. None can be trusted on a weekly basis, but they are far safer than the options below this cut-off line.
This circle has some solid young receivers to monitor as they could move up in the circle once they see an expanded role in their offence.
Tight Ends
TE Circle of Trust #1
This is an odd circle. It includes two players who didn’t even play in Week 1. TJ Hockenson is the lone tight end who made the top circle based on performance. Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce were both injured in Week 1 and didn’t play, but both belong in this category on reputation alone. For now, this circle will consist of Hockenson and two honorary members.
TE Circle of Trust #2
Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller and Pat Freirmuth make up the second tight-end circle. All are semi-elite players and all are consistent for as long as they remain healthy.
None of them had great Week 1 performances, but all have the highest upside of the remaining tight ends.
TE Circle of Trust #3
This next circle is where things start to get far less certain. We see veterans such as Tyler Higbee, George Kittle, David Njoku and Juwan Johnson. All of which underperformed to start Week 1 and could be in for a rocky seasons.
The two rookies to creep into this circle are Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid. Both got their NFL careers off to solid starts. They both figure to be moving in an upward trajectory over the coming months.
TE Circle of Trust #4
Here we have a group of streaming tight ends that all have safe floors for a tight end, but low ceilings. None of these are threats to move too much higher up the list, but all are decent streaming and bye replacement options.
Luke Musgrave is another rookie to monitor. He produced well in Week 1 but wasn’t started in nearly as many fantasy football leagues as Kincaid and LaPorta. Keep an eye on Musgrave,
TE Circle of Trust #5
It’s dart-throwing territory from here on out. None of these are trustworthy fantasy options, even for tight ends. If you have to start one of the players in this group you are in a world of hurt.
The lone player to watch out for is rookie Jake Ferguson who could see lots of volume from Dak Prescott.
Kickers
PK Circle of Trust #1
The top circle of kickers consists of only Tyler Bass and Jake Elliott. The common theme here is elite kicker on elite offences. Both are weekly must-starts and are as trustworthy as any.
Even in a Week 1 that saw both of their respective teams struggle, they both managed to find their way to the top of the list.
PK Circle of Trust #2
Next, we have a circle composed of six kickers. Justin Tucker, Harrison Butker and Younghoe Koo were easily the first drafted and come as no surprise. They should all continue to produce throughout the season regardless of matchup.
The other three in the circle are Jason Sanders, Cameron Dicker and Jason Myers. All three were started less than the above kickers, but all three were involved in shootouts. These kickers will continue to be on high-scoring offenses which should make them safe season-long options.
PK Circle of Trust #3
The third circle is the one where the majority of the movement will occur. We see some big names that underperformed in Week 1 and some others that aren’t likely to stick around this high for long.
Daniel Carlson, Evan McPherson, Brandon McManus, Nick Folk, Jake Moody, Greg Zuerlein and Riley Patterson all have significant upside in their offenses and all should be rostered in leagues with kickers.
PK Circle of Trust #4
There is no Circle 5 for kickers. Instead, we just have the rest of them in Circle #4. It’s a mess of streamers and underperformers. Most are dart-throw streaming options at best.
If you can avoid the kickers in this range, you should do so.
Defence/Special Teams
D/ST Circle of Trust #1
For future weeks, I expect this Circle to include the three teams below. But, the Dallas Cowboys were so spectacular in Week 1 that they get a Circle all to themselves.
The Dallas D/ST outscored many offenses. They are a must-start team every week regardless of the matchup. Even in tough matchups they simply cannot be dropped for streaming defenses. If you have the Cowboys in a bad matchup, you have to carry a second defense that week. They can’t be dropped.
D/ST Circle of Trust #2
This group will also be classified as a must-start, and cannot drop options. The New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers are all locked in top-five defenses.
Regardless of matchup they should either be started or held. Even in bad matchups, these defenses are good enough that they can produce off-turnovers alone. Just ask Josh Allen.
D/ST Circle of Trust #3
Circle 3 has three elite defenses that underperformed in Week 1. The Washington Commanders, New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens are all high-end D/ST options on a weekly basis.
While this trio is not nearly as matchup-proof as the top two tiers of defenses. None of them should be dropped barring disastrous circumstances.
D/ST Circle of Trust #4
The final circle of startable defenses currently includes the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos.
This group is much more matchup-dependent as they all have at least one fatal flaw. They are, however, all worth starting in most matchups.
If you are in need of a streamer, this circle features some great options that could be available on the waiver wire.
D/ST Circle of Trust #5
Avoid the remaining D/STs. Except for circumstances that include bye weeks and extremely favorable matchups, most of these defenses belong on the waiver wire.
The exceptions could potentially be the Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns.
*This study uses Yahoo’s default Full PPR settings.* The number on the left is their Started %, and the right is their Started Fantasy Points.
Bonus Data
Below is a table to show some of the players whose Week 1 performances were wasted most in fantasy leagues. I expect to see many of these names on waiver claims and Week 2 Sleeper columns.
If you didn’t see your favorite player on the list and would like to see how they faired this week, take a look at the full list of players available all season long on my online Google Spreadsheet. For my full list of rankings, check out our redraft rankings page.
