Fantasy Football Alchemy: Week 5 Recap

Fantasy Football Alchemy, using start percentages and final fantasy points to determine the most consistent options in 2023.

Every week, fantasy football managers are forced to make critical decisions on who to sit and who to start. From the time we draft our team, we are immediately faced with the realization that some players will be harder to manage than others. For most of us, the top player at each position is an auto-start option that requires no further research. But what do we do to help us fill out the rest of our lineup? Those back-end flex spots can be the hardest to fill, leaving us with nail-biting decisions. This is Fantasy Football Alchemy: Week 5 Recap. It’s intended to give you a consistent baseline for those tough start and sit conundrums. It’s a way to gauge which of those boom or bust type players tend to come through more often when started.

Fantasy Football Alchemy will be a weekly article all season long. It will weigh the player’s start percentage vs. their fantasy points scored that week to give us a number dubbed by Adam Aizer of CBS Sports as ‘Started Fantasy Points’. I will be grouping these players into Trust Circles, with Circle 1 being the most trustworthy option.

Without further delay, let’s see what we learned from Week 5 of the fantasy football season.

Fantasy Football Alchemy – Week 5 Recap

Quarterbacks

QB Circle of Trust #1

The top circle is the all-elite tier. Josh Allen has a healthy lead on the rest of the field with 143 points and to this point has been the most trusted and reliable option at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are bunched together in the middle, in the 120’s. Justin Herbert squeaks into the top circle as he is the fourth quarterback to crack the 100-point mark. This was what we expected all along, so it’s not surprising at all.

QB Circle of Trust #2

The second circle is composed of some mobile quarterback options. Lamar Jackson comes in just shy of the 100-point total needed to be in the top circle, but he has a healthy lead at the top of circle #2. Justin Fields follows him up with 88 and the group is rounded out by Tua Tagovailoa whose 80 points is a reflection on his injury uncertainty to begin the season. Tagovailoa should continue to rise as he has easily been the best quarterback in this circle.

QB Circle of Trust #3

This circle has only two quarterbacks, both in the 60-point range. Trevor Lawrence has come on as of late and is just under 70 points, while Kirk Cousins has cooled off and slid down in rating while totalling 64 points. Both are solid but not spectacular options.

QB Circle of Trust #4

The next circle is the largest as it consists largely of the quarterbacks ranked QB10 through QB15. They are all bunched together in the 20 to 40-point range and all could be movers in either direction. None of them have a high start rate with Joe Burrow seeing his trust levels plummet in the face of injury. The remainder of this group consists of Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones and Russell Wilson. The theme in this circle is clearly unsexy, yet reliable quarterbacks.

QB Circle of Trust #5

The final circle consists of an overperforming quarterback, an underperforming quarterback and an injured rookie quarterback. Anthony Richardson was off to a hot start but is now on IR and will be out for a while. Matthew Stafford was the overachiever in the group as he has been better than expected, while Geno Smith has regressed largely after his 2022 breakout season.

Quarterback Start % Risers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

CJ Stroud, HOU: +35% (13% to 48%)
Anthony Richardson, IND: +29% (25% to 54%)
Sam Howell, WSH: +19% (3% to 22%)
Joshua Dobbs, ARI: +14% (1% to 15%)
Matthew Stafford, LAR: +14% (17% to 31%)

Quarterback Start % Fallers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

Trevor Lawrence, JAC: -27% (92% to 55%)
Joe Burrow, CIN: -19% (61% to 42%)
Dak Prescott, DAL: -9% (50% to 41%)
Daniel Jones, NYG: -7% (27% to 20%)
Kirk Cousins, MIN: -6% (65% to 59%)

Running Backs

RB Circle of Trust #1

The first circle is Christian McCaffrey. As usual, there is no one else even remotely close to McCaffrey. He is almost 50 started fantasy points above the second running back on the list. He is still the best fantasy player we’ve ever seen.

RB Circle of Trust #2

The second circle consists of two younger running backs. Bijan Robinson was said to be a generational talent and has not disappointed so far. He should remain in this circle all season and is realistically the only running back who could challenge McCaffrey should his role increase. Travis Etienne has the Jacksonville backfield to himself and has seen his rating in this list climb as a result. He’s currently one of the most underrated running backs in fantasy and is producing at an elite level when relied upon.

RB Circle of Trust #3

The third circle is a bit larger. It sees four running backs all in the 60-point range. Tony Pollard and Derrick Henry have found their way into this circle as a result of high draft capital and trust. They will have to begin producing soon or they will begin to fall down the list quickly. Ken Walker and Raheem Mostert were not expected to be here, but both have been elite and are finally gaining the trust of their fantasy managers.

RB Circle of Trust #4

This is a circle with three middling options. Joe Mixon and James Cook have all been good but not great and are all trusted options but not must-starts. Running back circle #4 is very similar to quarterback circle #4 in the sense that there are no exciting options, just reliable and consistent ones.

RB Circle of Trust #5

The final running back circle is the largest and sees five running backs with point totals in the 40s. James Conner will see his ranking fall as he has been placed on the IR, and Alexander Mattison could move down quickly if he doesn’t improve his production. For now, they have both managed to creep into the final circle. The impressive backs in this circle are David Montgomery, Isiah Pacheco and D’Andre Swift as all three have earned their rank the hard way with solid contributions despite relatively low trust.

Running Backs Start % Risers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

David Montgomery, DET: +62% (25% to 87%)
Jonathan Taylor, IND: +50% (4% to 54%)
Breece Hall, NYJ: +40% (33% to 73%)
Devon Achane, MIA: +39% (50% to 89%)
Brian Robinson, WSH: +28% (43% to 71%)

Running Backs Start % Fallers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET: -65% (87% to 22%)
Zack Moss, IND: -58% (78% to 20%)
Javonte Williams, DEN: -42% (59% to 17%)
Aaron Jones, GB: -16% (65% to 49%)
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE: -10% (72% to 62%)

Wide Receivers

WR Circle of Trust #1

Circle 1 is called Tyreek Hill because he’s the only player in it. He is 17 points above the second receiver on this list and is producing at an MVP level for the high-flying Dolphins offence.

WR Circle of Trust #2

The next circle consists of four options that are no major surprise. Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase and AJ Brown have all cracked the 100-point mark and all four are elite WR1s. They are matchup-proof must-starts.

WR Circle of Trust #3

Circle 3 sees three options that are a bit more surprising, well two of them are. Davante Adams is the superstar we expected to see here or higher so that’s nothing new. Keenan Allen and DJ Moore are the surprising ones. Allen was thought to be washed up but has been a pleasant surprise, while Moore has overcome a bad Chicago offence to be an elite option.

WR Circle of Trust #4

This circle is the largest one by far, as it sees six receivers totalling between 60 and 75 points. CeeDee Lamb is the only one to crack the 70-point plateau. He is a must-start even in a struggling Dallas offence. Amon-Ra St Brown should probably be higher on this list but injuries have limited him the past few weeks.

Deebo Samuel was the highest-ranked receiver, but has underachieved and is living on reputations. Conversely, Puka Nacua was the unknown receiver who lit the world on fire and he earned his way into this circle.

Chris Olave and Devonta Smith find themselves here. Both are young and elite players, but both can be boom-or-bust so they are never really considered for the elite tiers.

WR Circle of Trust #5

The final circle sees Garrett Wilson continuing to tread water amid a horrible quarterback situation. He is elite, but his quarterback is not. Calvin Ridley and Mike Evans appear to be defying Father Time and are producing potentially the last fantasy-relevant season of their careers. Let’s see how long they last.

Brandon Aiyuk is the surprise addition as he finally appears to be out of the doghouse and sees himself really blossoming as a star.

Wide Receivers Start % Risers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

Coop[er Kupp, LAR: +72% (6% to 78%)
Christian Watson, GB: +69% (18% to 87%)
Marquise Brown, ARI: +44% (17% to 61%)
Adam Thielen, CAR: +42% (49% to 91%)
Terry McLaurin, WSH: +36% (38% to 74%)

Wide Receivers Start % Fallers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

Tutu Atwell, LAR: -16% (39% to 23%)
George Pickens, PIT: -10% (46% to 36%)
Tank Dell, HOU: -10% (38% to 28%)
Jordan Addison, MIN: -9% (46% to 37%)
Chris Olave, NO: -8% (95% to 87%)

Tight Ends

TE Circle of Trust #1

This circle is how we always knew it would be. It may have taken some help from Taylor Swift, but Travis Kelce has reclaimed his seat on the tight-end throne. Much like Christian McCaffrey, he belongs alone in this tier for as long as he plays. He’s the best fantasy tight end in the history of fantasy football.

TE Circle of Trust #2

The second circle consists of three stud tight ends. TJ Hockenson and Mark Andrews have been high on this list for most of the season, now they are joined by George Kittle after a few elite weeks of production. If you don’t have Kelce, you better hope you got one of these three.

TE Circle of Trust #3

The third circle has only one player. Evan Engram has produced at an elite level thus far but has yet to fully earn the trust of fantasy managers. He is quickly becoming a must-start tight end and could soon move up this list.

TE Circle of Trust #4

Here we have a circle of three tight ends. Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller and Sam LaPorta are all bunched together in the 30-point range. LaPorta’s play should continue to earn his trust and should see him move upwards away from these middling players.

TE Circle of Trust #5

Circle of Trust #5 has only one player. Kyle Pitts is surviving off of reputation alone. He has managed to sneak into this circle based on one solid week and the fact that managers who drafted him are likely starting him out of necessity. He could truly be a fantasy albatross of epic proportions.

Tight Ends Start % Risers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

Zach Ertz, ARI: +28% (8% to 36%)
Jake Ferguson, DAL: +27% (24% to 51%)
Cole Kmet, CHI: +21% (15% to 36%)
Tyler Higbee, LAR: +13% (22% to 35%)
Jonnu Smith, NE: +11% (0% to 11%)

Tight Ends Start % Fallers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

Kyle Pitts, ATL: -15% (74% to 59%)
Luke Musgrave, GB: -12% (21% to 12%)
George Kittle, SF: -8% (94% to 86%)
Darren Waller, NYG: -8% (81% to 73%)
Dallas Goedert, PHI: -6% (81% to 75%)

Kickers

PK Circle of Trust #1

The first kicker circle is a small one. Jake Elliott and Tyler Bass are the only two that have topped 50 points and both will continue to be season-long must-starts regardless of matchup.

PK Circle of Trust #2

Harrison Butker is alone in the second circle and he fell just short of the first circle, coming one point shy. He’s a full 11 points ahead of circle #3 though, so he is easily the third-best kicker at this moment.

PK Circle of Trust #3

The third circle features three kickers who have been bad this season but are getting by on their reputation as elite options. Evan McPherson, Justin Tucker and Younghoe Koo have all dropped multiple dud games this season but are still here because fantasy managers are largely inexperienced with projecting kickers and are just continuing to trust the big names.

PK Circle of Trust #4

The final circle of kickers are Jason Sanders and Jake Moody who were less trusted options than the three above, but who have both performed noticeably better than circle #3. These guys are far better options at kicker right now than the big names above them.

Kickers Start % Risers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

Brett Maher, LAR: +29% (12% to 41%)
Riley Patterson, DET: +23% (32% to 55%)
Brandon Aubrey, DAL: +15% (48% to 63%)
Kai Fairbairn, HOU: +9% (1% to 10%)
Jake Elliott, PHI: +7% (81% to 88%)

Kickers Start % Fallers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

Brandon McManus, JAC: -35% (56% to 21%)
Younghoe Koo, ATL: -11% (78% to 67%)
Daniel Carlson, LV: -3% (76% to 73%)
Evan McPherson, CIN: -3% (84% to 81%)
Justin Tucker, BAL: -2% (96% to 94%)

Defence/Special Teams

D/ST Circle of Trust #1

The Dallas Cowboys are all along at the top once again, and it’s not even close. Despite their relative inconsistency, they are almost 20 points ahead of the Buffalo Bills. They are easily the best D/ST in football right now.

D/ST Circle of Trust #2

The second circle contains only the Buffalo Bills as they have set themselves. They are well behind Dallas but are miles ahead of the rest of the teams. The Bills are currently an elite defensive unit, but keep an eye on them. Injuries are beginning to pile up and this could come to a swift end for the Bills.

D/ST Circle of Trust #3

Circle #3 consists of the remaining D/STs that comprise the top 6. San Francisco, Philadelphia, Baltimore and New Orleans are all elite. The difference in these groups is that they are slightly more matchup-dependent than Dallas and Buffalo. If you roster any of these four teams, assume you are starting them 90% of the time.

D/ST Circle of Trust #4

The final circle is only the New York Jets. They are a vulnerable unit because their offence forces them to be on the field for an absurd amount of time, but they are elite and are doing their best to keep the Jets in games.

*This study uses Yahoo’s default Full PPR settings.* The number on the left is their Started %, and the right is their Started Fantasy Points.

D/ST Start % Risers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

Detroit Lions: +78% (6% to 84%)
Washington Commanders: +53% (7% to 60%)
Miami Dolphins: +49% (27% to 76%)
Houston Texans: +23% (3% to 26%)
New York Jets: +23% (36% to 59%)

D/ST Start % Fallers (From Week 4 to Week 5)

Kansas City Chiefs: -41% (86% to 45%)
Pittsburgh Steelers: -40% (75% to 35%)
Cincinnati Bengals: -31% (53% to 22%)
Dallas Cowboys: -19% (97% to 78%)
Philadelphia Eagles: -14% (95% to 81%)

Bonus Data

Below is a table to show some of the players whose Week 1-5 performances were wasted most in fantasy leagues. I expect to see many of these names on waiver claims and Week 6 Sleeper columns.

If you didn’t see your favourite player on the list and would like to see how they faired this week, look at the full list of players available all season long on my online Google Spreadsheet. For my full list of rankings, check out our redraft rankings page.