Fantasy Football Alchemy: Week 6 Recap

Fantasy Football Alchemy, using start percentages and final fantasy points to determine the most consistent options in 2023.

Every week, fantasy football managers are forced to make critical decisions on who to sit and who to start. From the time we draft our team, we are immediately faced with the realization that some players will be harder to manage than others. For most of us, the top player at each position is an auto-start option that requires no further research. But what do we do to help us fill out the rest of our lineup? Those back-end flex spots can be the hardest to fill, leaving us with nail-biting decisions. This is Fantasy Football Alchemy: Week 6 Recap. It’s intended to give you a consistent baseline for those tough start and sit conundrums. It’s a way to gauge which of those boom or bust type players tend to come through more often when started.

Fantasy Football Alchemy will be a weekly article all season long. It will weigh the player’s start percentage vs. their fantasy points scored that week to give us a number dubbed by Adam Aizer of CBS Sports as ‘Started Fantasy Points’. I will be grouping these players into Trust Circles, with Circle 1 being the most trustworthy option.

We are officially getting into the heart of the season. So now, it’s time to tighten things up and get a more defined and calculated range in the trust circles. Without further delay, let’s see what we learned from Week 5 of the fantasy football season.

Fantasy Football Alchemy – Week 6 Recap

Quarterbacks

QB Circle of Trust #1

The elite circle for this week consists of only Josh Allen. Allen is the only quarterback to top 160 started fantasy points and currently sits as the QB1. There hasn’t been a more consistent quarterback through six weeks and he is currently on a level of his own, similar to his previous QB1 overall season.

QB Circle of Trust #2

The second circle sees Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes who are both still elite but are beginning to lag slightly. Hurts has been good but not great through six weeks and has seen some inconsistencies pop up in his game. The Eagles appear to have sorted things out to some degree, but he needs to show he is still the elite option he was last season.

Mahomes on the other hand is struggling to elevate his game above the mid-range QB1 level. Whether it be due to Travis Kelce’s lingering injuries, poor offensive line play or poor weapons, Mahomes has not had the 1.01 ceiling he showed in years past. He was the subject of The People’s Fantasy Court this past week. Head over to my podcast to see the full debate.

QB Circle of Trust #3

This circle has three options. Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert have all been started at a slightly lower rate than the two options in the second circle, but all three are producing at a level that exceeds Mahomes or Hurts. As far as fantasy football production goes, these three might be Qb1-4 on the season, if only faith in them was higher. As managers begin to put greater faith in this trio, look for them to take the next step and challenge for the second circle and beyond.

QB Circle of Trust #4

The next circle is two quarterbacks who have struggled at times this season and as a result, have lost significant steam from their preseason rank. Neither Justin Fields nor Trevor Lawrence have fallen out of the QB1 range, but both have struggled with inconsistencies and turnovers at times this year. They are still two of the quarterbacks with the most upside should they work through these struggles, but for now they reside in the fourth circle as they balance mediocre play and medium start rates.

QB Circle of Trust #5

The final circle is the largest by far as we see a huge drop off in tier and get into the borderline QB1/2 range. Kirk Cousins and Brock Purdy got off to hot starts but have cooled off significantly. Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott

had the opposite situation as both struggled early but have since improved. The one constant in this group has been Jared Goff. Goff is just your consistent, weekly, low-end QB1 and has never strayed from that range.

This entire circle is reliable, but all five options are much more matchup-dependent than the players above them.

Quarterback Start % Risers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

Joe Burrow, CIN: +33% (42%-75%)
Justin Fields, CHI: +19% (65% to 84%)
Trevor Lawrence, JAC: +17% (55% to 72%)
Matthew Stafford, LAR: +8% (31% to 39%)
Dak Prescott, DAL: +6% (41% to 47%)

Quarterback Start % Fallers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

CJ Stroud, HOU: -26% (48% to 22%)
Daniel Jones, NYG: -13% (20% to 7%)
Kirk Cousins, MIN: -10% (59% to 49%)
Joshua Dobbs, ARI: -10% (15% to 5%)
Jared Goff, DET: -9% (42% to 33%)

Running Backs

RB Circle of Trust #1

The first circle is Christian McCaffrey. As usual, there is no one else even remotely close to McCaffrey. He is almost 40 started fantasy points above the second running back on the list. He is still the best fantasy football player we’ve ever seen. If that sentence seems familiar, it’s because it’s the same thing I wrote last week, and the week before. McCaffrey is so consistent I don’t even need to update the first circle breakdown. It’s simply McCaffrey, every week, on a league of his own.

RB Circle of Trust #2

The second circle has seen Travis Etienne’s play leave him alone in the second circle. Etienne has been far better than anyone could have expected as he has quickly distinguished himself as a top-six fantasy running back. He won’t challenge McCaffrey for the top spot, but he’s certainly as reliable and trustworthy as they come in a messy running-back landscape.

RB Circle of Trust #3

The third circle consists of rookie superstar Bijan Robinson and the running back that time has forgotten Raheem Mostert. Mostert took a brief dip in this ranking as Devon Achane burst onto the scene, but with Achane going on IR, Mostert was the last man standing and has been truly beast-like in his absence. Mostert had a hat-trick of rushing touchdowns in Week 6 and will be elite for as long as Achane is out, which might not be for long, so it could be time to sell high. Robinson has not been nearly as productive and is losing work to Tyler Allgeier, but he remains a weekly must-start.

RB Circle of Trust #4

This is a circle with only two options, and much like the third tier, it has a veteran and a youngster. The veteran is Derrick Henry who had struggled heavily until Week 6 when he erupted for a monster game aided by a long touchdown run. He has been losing touches to Tyjae Spears in an attempt to keep him healthy but has still been excellent. Ken Walker is the youngster and he has been elite. Except for McCaffrey, Walker could be the best back this year. If he stays healthy, he will be a league winner after seeing Zach Charbonnet tank his draft cost.

RB Circle of Trust #5

The final running back circle is the largest and sees eight running backs vying for the final six spots in the top 12. Tony Pollard, Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs fall under the highly started and ineffective category this season. At this point, all three could be labelled as a bust and must pick up their play to remain an RB1.

Isiah Pacheco, Kyren Williams and D’Andre Swift have earned their way into this circle with elite-level production despite their relative uncertainty. As their start rates rise, so will their rank on this list.

The final two are the odd cases. Breece Hall has been good and bad and has looked both injured and healthy at times. Over the past few weeks, he has seemed to turn a corner and should continue to rise the ranks. James Cook, on the other hand, got off to a solid start but has seen his production tail off significantly. If he doesn’t turn it around soon, he will find his way out of the fifth and final circle.

Running Backs Start % Risers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

D’Onta Foreman, CHI: +35% (0% to 35%)
Saquon Barkley, NYG: +35% (20% to 35%)
Chuba Hubbard, CAR: +25% (11% to 36%)
Zack Moss, IND: +22% (20% to 42%)
Javonte Williams, DEN: +14% (17% to 31%)

Running Backs Start % Fallers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

Matt Breida, NYG: -20% (21% to 1%)
Brian Robinson, WSH: -19% (71% to 52%)
Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN: -11% (24% to 13%)
Gus Edwards, BAL: -12% (35% to 23%)
Dalvin Cook, NYJ: -10% (19% to 9%)

Wide Receivers

WR Circle of Trust #1

The first circle, once again consists of only Tyreek Hill. Stefon Diggs is closing the game with another blowup game, but for now, Hill has a 25+ point lead and will get his circle. Hill is a weekly must-start and is yet to have a single bad game. He is the best of the best, with Chase struggling and Jefferson on the IR, he may be alone at the top for a while if Diggs can’t close the gap.

WR Circle of Trust #2

The second circle is the aforementioned Stefon Diggs. He is the only receiver aside from Hill to crack the 125-point mark this season. He is playing at a level that is tough to match outside of Hill and vintage Cooper Kupp or Michael Thomas. Diggs is a matchup-proof must-start receiver and is a weekly threat to be the WR1 overall. He is the only legitimate threat to catch Hill in light of the situations surrounding Chase and Jefferson.

WR Circle of Trust #3

The third circle features AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. All of them have the elite ceiling of Diggs and Hill, but they have a significantly lower floor as both are prone to massive dud games. Jefferson will not stay in this circle for long as he has been placed on IR and may not play again this season. This is certainly the sexiest circle of receivers, but with all that appeal comes significantly more risk. Hill and Diggs are the studs to target to build a fool-proof juggernaut this year.

WR Circle of Trust #4

This circle is larger than the previous three. All four options have a slightly lower ceiling than the receivers above them on the list, but they are every bit as safe as the options in the third circle. Amon-Ra St Brown, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams and DJ Moore have been locked in WR1s this season, even if it’s on the lower end of the spectrum.

This group is the far less sexy group and is far easier to acquire than the players in any of the circles above. If you want a legitimate WR1 but don’t want to pay a premium, these options should be a bit cheaper.

WR Circle of Trust #5

The final circle of receivers is the biggest and contains more players than the first four circles combined. It’s a group of receivers that mostly fall into fantasy football rankings as WR2s. CeeDee Lamb, Devonta Smith, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Deebo Samuel and Calvin Ridley are the names we expected on this list. All of them were expected to challenge for top-12 spots but all have been hit-and-miss to this point. Faith in them appears to be fading as they have all seen their start rates drop significantly.

The surprising names in this circle are Puka Nacua and Brandon Aiyuk. They have both exceeded preseason expectations by miles. Aiyuk and Nacua could challenge for spots in the top 12 if they are able to continue their solid play.

Wide Receivers Start % Risers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

Jordan Addison, MIN: +27% (37% to 64%)
KJ Osborn, MIN: +25% (2% to 27%)
Cooper Kupp, LAR: +16% (78% to 94%)
Gabe Davis, BUF: +12% (47% to 59%)
Drake London, ATL: +11% (46% to 57%)

Wide Receivers Start % Fallers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

Terry McLaurin, WSH: -22% (74% to 52%)
Adam Thielen, MIN: -20% (91% to 71%)
Nico Collins, HOU: -18% (73% to 55%)
Michael Wilson, ARI: -17% (19% to 2%)
Garrett Wilson, NYJ: -16% (91% to 75%)

Tight Ends

TE Circle of Trust #1

The first circle of tight ends is how it should be. It’s Travis Kelce. Even in a season that has seen him miss some games and battle through injuries, Kelce has still been the best tight end for fantasy football. There is simply no better tight end in fantasy football history. If Kelce is breathing, you’re playing him.

TE Circle of Trust #2

The second circle sees the two non-Kelce elite tight ends. Mark Andrews and TJ Hockenson have been on a different level as usual. Hockenson has been far more productive and could eventually move into the circle with Kelce. Andrews on the other hand, has been consistently losing targets to Flowers and seems to be the second pass-catching option for Lamar Jackson, no one predicted that.

TE Circle of Trust #3

The third circle sees Evan Engram who has produced as an elite tight end all season and George Kittle who has been inconsistent. Engram’s play has far surpassed Kittle’s, but Kittle has had a significantly higher start rate all season. Kittle will need to improve his production if he doesn’t want Engram to leave him in the dust.

TE Circle of Trust #4

The fourth circle consists of the two youngest tight ends among the elites. Sam LaPorta has burst onto the scene to give fantasy managers the tight end they thought Pitts was. Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts has strung together back-to-back solid weeks and has seen hopes in him rise once again. These two are young and exciting. It won’t take much for managers to invest heavily in them and see their start rates soar as they move upward on the list.

TE Circle of Trust #5

The fifth and final circle is the largest and consists of the high-end TE2s who are fighting to become low-end TE1s. Pat Freiermuth and David Njoku entered the season easily inside the top 10 at tight end, but injury and poor play now see them clinging to the final circle. It’s time for them both to put up or shut up.

Tyler Higbee is still on this list due to a solid start. He has since fallen off a cliff and is droppable. I would bet that he will not make another appearance in this series and will fade away.

Cole Kmet is the hit-and-miss option in the bunch. He alternates top-3 weeks with total disappearing acts. He has the potential to move significantly higher up this list or fall off it entirely.

Tight Ends Start % Risers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

Logan Thomas, WSH: +32% (10% to 42%)
Dallas Goedert, PHI: +12% (75% to 87%)
Kyle Pitts, ATL: +10% (59% to 69%)
Cole Kmet, CHI: +10% (36% to 46%)
Dalton Schultz, HOU: +10% (12% to 22%)

Tight Ends Start % Fallers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

Hunter Henry, NE: -25% (43% to 18%)
Dalton Kincaid, BUF: -17% (26% to 9%)
Jake Ferguson, DAL: -12% (51% to 39%)
Darren Waller, NYG: -10% (73% to 63%)
Tyler Higbee, LAR: -10% (35% to 25%)

Kickers

PK Circle of Trust #1

The first kicker circle is Harrison Butker and no one else. Butker has been consistent through six weeks and is as matchup-proof as any kicker can be. He plays for an elite, high-scoring offense and should be in your lineup every week.

PK Circle of Trust #2

The second circle consists of Tyler Bass and Jake Elliott. Much like Butker, they are elite kickers on elite, high-scoring offenses. The common theme seems to be, that if you want elite kicker production you need to find a kicker on the best offense. Bass and Elliott are weekly must-start options.

PK Circle of Trust #3

The third circle features two more kickers who are also on solid offenses. The difference here is that Baltimore and Cincinnati haven’t been as potent on offense to this point in the season. Despite the offensive inconsistencies, Justin Tucker and Evan McPherson will remain must-starts. They have struggled to produce at their usual level, but some patience is required as they look to get back on track.

PK Circle of Trust #4

The final circle of kickers features Daniel Carlson, Jake Moody and Brandon McManus. These three are all unique to one another. Carlson is the biggest name who has disappointed this season in a brutal Raiders offense. Moody is the young rookie who has far exceeded expectations and Brandon McManus is the veteran who somehow finds ways to continue to produce for fantasy football.

Kickers Start % Risers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

Kai Fairbairn, HOU: +9% (10% to 19%)
Evan McPherson, CIN: +2% (81% to 83%)
Brandon Aubrey, DAL: +2% (63% to 65%)
Jake Elliott, PHI: +2% (63% to 65%)
Brandon McManus, JAC: +1% (21% to 22%)

Kickers Start % Fallers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

Riley Patterson, DET: -8% (55% to 47%)
Daniel Carlson, LV: -3% (73% to 70%)
Jake Moody, SF: -2% (67% to 65%)
Matt Gay, IND: -2% (13% to 11%)
Matt Prater, ARI: -2% (4% to 2%)

Defense/Special Teams

D/ST Circle of Trust #1

The Dallas Cowboys are all along at the top once again, and it’s not even close. Despite their relative inconsistency, they are well ahead of the Buffalo Bills. They are alone at the top for now, but the gap has closed in recent weeks.

D/ST Circle of Trust #2

The second circle contains the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers. Both have been elite fantasy football defenses to kick off the season. The 49ers are the likely team to challenge the Cowboys for the top spot, as injuries may see the Bills struggle in the coming weeks.

D/ST Circle of Trust #3

The third circle features the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens. Both started the season slow but have been excellent lately. These two are candidates to continue to rise and overtake a banged-up Bills squad. Both are weekly must-start options, although they still need to be avoided in the worst of the worst matchups, such as the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco.

D/ST Circle of Trust #4

The final circle has the remaining three elite D/STs. The New Orleans Saints, New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs are all beginning to show that their defenses are elite. All three have had significantly lower start rates to start the year, but all three are must-start lockdown teams.

*This study uses Yahoo’s default Full PPR settings.* The number on the left is their Started %, and the right is their Started Fantasy Points.

D/ST Start % Risers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

Las Vegas Raiders: +44% (1% to 46%)
Kansas City Chiefs: +30% (45% to 75%)
Atlanta Falcons: +26% (8% to 34%)
Jacksonville Jaguars: +14% (8% to 22%)
Philadelphia Eagles: +12% (81% to 93%)

D/ST Start % Fallers (From Week 5 to Week 6)

Washington Commanders: -43% (60% to 17%)
Detroit Lions: -26% (84% to 58%)
New England Patriots: -24% (56% to 32%)
New York Jets: -19% (59% to 40%)
Houston Texans: -16% (26% to 10%)

Bonus Data

Below is a table to show some of the players whose Week 1-5 performances were wasted most in fantasy leagues. I expect to see many of these names on waiver claims and Week 6 Sleeper columns.

If you didn’t see your favorite NFL player on the list and would like to see how they faired this week, look at the full list of players available all season long on my online Google Spreadsheet. For my full list of rankings, check out our redraft rankings page.