Fantasy Football Alchemy, using start percentages and final fantasy points to determine the most consistent options in 2023.
Every week, fantasy football managers are forced to make critical decisions on who to sit and who to start. From the time we draft our team, we are immediately faced with the realization that some players will be harder to manage than others. For most of us, the top player at each position is an auto-start option that requires no further research. But what do we do to help us fill out the rest of our lineup? Those back-end flex spots can be the hardest to fill, leaving us with nail-biting decisions. Welcome to Fantasy Football Alchemy: Week 7 Recap.
This is Fantasy Football Alchemy: Week 7 Recap. It’s intended to give you a consistent baseline for those tough start and sit conundrums. It’s a way to gauge which of those boom or bust type players tend to come through more often when started.
Fantasy Football Alchemy will be a weekly article all season long. It will weigh the player’s start percentage vs. their fantasy points scored that week to give us a number dubbed by Adam Aizer of CBS Sports as ‘Started Fantasy Points’. I will be grouping these players into Trust Circles, with Circle 1 being the most trustworthy option.
We are officially getting into the heart of the season. So now, it’s time to tighten things up and get a more defined and calculated range in the trust circles. Without further delay, let’s see what we learned from Week 7 of the fantasy football season. For this edition, I will be straying from my subjective opinions and including strictly objective statistics.
Fantasy Football Alchemy – Week 7 Recap
Quarterbacks
QB Circle of Trust #1 (Elite)
Josh Allen, QB1 – Passing: 2,165 yards, 17 touchdowns, 8 interceptions. Rushing: 189 yards, 5 touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes, QB3 – Passing: 2,017 yards, 15 touchdowns, 6 interceptions. Rushing: 214 yards, 0 touchdowns
Jalen Hurts, QB2 – Passing: 1,821 yards, 9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions. Rushing: 274 yards, 6 touchdowns.
Lamar Jackson, QB4 – Passing: 1,610 yards, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Rushing: 363 yards, 5 touchdowns.
QB Circle of Trust #2 (High-End)
Justin Herbert, QB8 – Passing: 1,592 yards, 10 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. Rushing: 80 yards, 3 touchdowns.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB5 – Passing: 2,092 yards, 15 touchdowns, 6 interceptions. Rushing: 18 yards, 0 touchdowns.
QB Circle of Trust #3 (Must-Start)
Trevor Lawrence, QB15 – Passing: 1,643 yards, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Rushing: 206 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Justin Fields, QB14 – Passing: 1,201 yards, 11 touchdowns, 6 interceptions. Rushing: 237 yards, 1 touchdown.
Kirk Cousins, QB6- Passing: 2,057 yards, 16 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. Rushing: 16 yards, 0 touchdowns.
QB Circle of Trust #4 (Consistent Starter)
Jared Goff, QB7 – Passing: 1,902 yards, 11 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. Rushing: 15 yards, 2 touchdowns
QB Circle of Trust #5 (Boom or Bust Starter)
Brock Purdy, QB9 – Passing: 1,668 yards, 11 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Rushing: 50 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Joe Burrow, QB26 – Passing: 1,230 yards, 7 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. Rushing: 14 yards, 1 touchdown.
Dak Prescott, QB20 – Passing: 1,333 yards, 6 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. Rushing: 85 yards, 1 touchdown.
Jordan Love, QB13 – Passing: 1,263 yards, 10 touchdowns, 7 interceptions. Rushing: 21 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Matthew Stafford, QB16 – Passing: 1,908 yards, 7 touchdowns, 6 interceptions. Rushing: 59 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Deshaun Watson, QB33 – Passing 683 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Rushing: 83 yards, 1 touchdown.
geno Smith, QB22 – Passing: 1,391 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. Rushing: 52 yards, 0 interceptions.
Russell Wilson, QB10 – Passing: 1,499 yards, 13 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. Rushing: 171 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Quarterback Start % Risers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- Jordan Love, GB: +43% (0%-43%)
- Geno Smith, SEA: +33% (17% to 50%)
- Deshaun Watson, CLE: +25% (3% to 28%)
- Sam Howell, WSH: +24% (15% to 39%)
- Jared Goff, DET: +18% (33% to 51%)
Quarterback Start % Fallers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- Trevor Lawrence, JAC: -16% (72% to 56%)
- Kirk Cousins, MIN: -10% (49% to 39%)
- Jimmy Garoppolo, LV: -4% (5% to 1%)
- Gardener Minshew, IND: -3% (5% to 2%)
- Josh Allen, BUF: -3% (98% to 95%)
Running Backs
RB Circle of Trust #1 (Elite)
Christian McCaffrey, RB1 – Rushing: 598 yards, 8 touchdowns. Receiving: 26 receptions, 228 yards, 3 touchdowns
RB Circle of Trust #2 (High-End)
Travis Etienne, RB3 – Rushing: 504 yards, 7 touchdowns. Receiving: 24 receptions, 196 yards, 0 touchdowns.
RB Circle of Trust #3 (Must-Start)
Raheem Mostert, RB2 – Rushing: 474 yards, 9 touchdowns. Receiving: 19 receptions, 151 yards, 2 touchdowns.
RB Circle of Trust #4 (Consistent Starter)
Bijan Robinson, RB12 – Rushing: 404 yards, 0 touchdowns. Receiving: 26 receptions, 189 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Ken Walker, RB6 – Rushing: 450 yards, 6 touchdowns. Receiving: 13 receptions, 106 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Derrick Henry, RB14 – Rushing: 425 yards, 3 touchdowns. Receiving: 11 receptions, 117 yards, 0 touchdowns.
RB Circle of Trust #5 (Boom or Bust Starter)
Alvin Kamara, RB20 – Rushing: 261 yards, 1 touchdown. Receiving: 35 receptions, 177 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Josh Jacobs, RB15 – Rushing: 347 yards, 2 touchdowns. Receiving: 26 receptions, 215 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Isiah Pacheco, RB9 – Rushing: 419 yards, 3 touchdowns. Receiving: 21 receptions, 163 yards, 1 touchdown.
James Cook, RB10 – Rushing: 486 yards, 1 touchdown. Receiving: 18 receptions, 192 yards, 1 touchdown.
Tony Pollard, RB16 – Rushing: 370 yards, 2 touchdowns. Receiving: 25 receptions, 176 yards, 0 touchdowns.
D’Andre Swift, RB8 – Rushing: 514 yards, 2 touchdowns. Receiving: 26 receptions, 128 yards, 1 touchdown.
Joe Mixon, RB24 – Rushing: 366 yards, 1 touchdown. Receiving: 16 receptions, 104 yards, 0 touchdowns.
saquon Barkley, RB23 – Rushing: 284 yards, 1 touchdown. Receiving: 16 receptions, 87 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB22 – Rushing: 268 yards, 2 touchdowns. Receiving: 23 receptions, 162 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Kyren Williams, RB4 – Rushing: 456 yards, 6 touchdowns. Receiving: 13 receptions, 105 yards, 1 touchdown.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB28 – Rushing: 247 yards, 1 touchdown. Receiving: 23 receptions, 128 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Alexander Mattison, RB21 – Rushing: 359 yards, 0 touchdowns. Receiving: 20 receptions, 107 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Breece Hall, RB18 – Rushing: 426 yards, 2 touchdowns. Receiving: 13 receptions, 113 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Running Backs Start % Risers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- Jerome Ford, CLE: +42% (26% to 68%)
- Saquon Barkley, NYG: +39% (55% to 94%)
- Javonte Williams, DEN: +34% (31% to 65%)
- Jaylen Warren, PIT: +33% (0% to 33%)
- AJ Dillon, GB: +29% (0% to 29%)
Running Backs Start % Fallers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- Alexander Mattison, MIN: -8% (69% to 61%)
- Samaje Perine, DEN: -5% (10% to 5%)
- Christian McCaffrey, SF: -4% (99% to 95%)
- Salvon Ahmed, MIA: -3% (5% to 2%)
- Damien Harris, BUF: -2% (3% to 1%)
Wide Receivers
WR Circle of Trust #1 (Elite)
Tyreek Hill, WR1- Receiving: 53 receptions, 902 yards, 7 touchdowns.
Stefon Diggs, WR2 – Receiving: 64 receptions, 748 yards, 6 touchdowns.
AJ Brown, WR3 – Receiving: 52 receptions, 809 yards, 3 touchdowns.
WR Circle of Trust #2 (High-End)
Ja’Marr Chase, WR8 – Receiving: 50 receptions, 556 yards, 3 touchdowns.
WR Circle of Trust #3 (Must-Start)
Amon-Ra St Brown, WR9 – Receiving: 51 receptions, 557 yards, 3 touchdowns.
Justin Jefferson, WR12 – Receiving: 36 receptions, 571 yards, 3 touchdowns.
Davante Adams, WR11 – Receiving: 46 receptions, 528 yards, 3 touchdowns.
DJ Moore, WR5 – Receiving: 40 receptions, 636 yards, 5 touchdowns.
Keenan Allen, WR6 – Receiving: 46 receptions, 574 yards, 4 touchdowns.
WR Circle of Trust #4 (Consistent Starter)
Puka Nacua, WR4 – Receiving: 58 receptions, 752 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Chris Olave, WR25 – Receiving: 39 receptions, 471 yards, 1 touchdown.
Devonta Smith, WR34 – Receiving: 32 receptions, 383 yards, 2 touchdowns.
WR Circle of Trust #5 (Boom or Bust Starter)
Mike Evans, WR10 – Receiving: 33 receptions, 507 yards, 5 touchdowns.
CeeDee Lamb, WR26 – Receiving: 34 receptions, 475 yards, 1 touchdown.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR19 – Receiving: 30 receptions, 511 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Jaylen Waddle, WR37 – Receiving: 30 receptions, 359 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Michael Pittman, WR17 – Receiving: 42 receptions, 489 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Christian Kirk, WR18 – Receiving: 39 receptions, 474 yards, 3 touchdowns.
Calvin Ridley, WR36 – Receiving: 27 receptions, 368 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Deebo Samuel, WR39 – Receiving: 20 receptions, 302 yards, 1 touchdown.
Garrett Wilson, WR35 – Receiving: 32 receptions, 369 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Adam Thielen, WR7 – Receiving: 49 receptions, 509 yards, 4 touchdowns.
DK Metcalf, WR45 – Receiving: 22 receptions, 337 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Wide Receivers Start % Risers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- Christian Watson, GB: +63% (0% to 63%)
- George Pickens, PIT: +58% (0% to 58%)
- Amari Cooper, CLE: +47% (38% to 85%)
- Tyler Lockett, SEA: +30% (48% to 78%)
- Romeo Doubs, GB: +29% (0% to 29%)
Wide Receivers Start % Fallers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- DJ Moore, CHI: -9% (92% to 83%)
- Jordan Addison, MIN: -7% (64% to 57%)
- Calvin Ridley, JAC: -6% (92% to 86%)
- Zay Jones, JAC: -2% (3% to 1%)
- Darnell Mooney, CHI: -2% (2% to 0%)
Tight Ends
TE Circle of Trust #1 (Elite)
Travis Kelce, TE1 – Receiving: 48 receptions, 525 yards, 4 touchdowns.
TE Circle of Trust #2 (High end)
TJ Hockenson, TE4 – Receiving: 47 receptions, 390 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Mark Andrews, TE2 – Receiving: 28 receptions, 357 yards, 5 touchdowns.
TE Circle of Trust #3 (Must-Start)
George Kittle, TE7 – Receiving: 23 receptions, 294 yards, 3 touchdowns.
Dallas Goedert, TE6 – Receiving: 31 receptions, 324 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Darren Waller, TE5 – Receiving: 35 receptions, 380 yards, 1 touchdown.
Evan Engram, TE8 – Receiving: 41 receptions, 346 yards, 0 touchdowns.
TE Circle of Trust #4 (Consistent Starter)
Sam LaPorta, TE3 – Receiving: 35 receptions, 377 yards, 3 touchdowns.
Kyle Pitts, TE12 – Receiving: 25 receptions, 298 yards, 1 touchdown.
Tight Ends Start % Risers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- David Njoku, CLE: +24% (10% to 34%)
- Luke Musgrave, GB: +24% (0% to 24%)
- Jonnu Smith, ATL: +20% (11% to 31%)
- Darren Waller, NYG: +17% (63% to 80%)
- Michael Mayer, LV: +17% (1% to 18%)
Tight Ends Start % Fallers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- Logan Thomas, WSH: -13% (42% to 29%)
- Zach Ertz, ARI: -13% (36% to 23%)
- Cole Kmet, CHI: -9% (46% to 37%)
- Hunter Henry, NE: -8% (18% to 10%)
- Tyler Higbee, LAR: -2% (25% to 23%)
Kickers
PK Circle of Trust #1 (Elite)
Harrison Butker, PK3 – Extra Points: 19 for 19. Field Goals: 15 for 15. 2 from 40+ yards, 2 from 50+ yards.
PK Circle of Trust #2 (High-End)
Jake Elliott, PK1 – Extra Points: 17 for 18. Field Goals: 17 for 19. 3 from 40+ yards, 4 from 50+ yards.
Tyler Bass, PK11 – Extra Points: 25 for 25. Field Goals: 11 for 14. 1 from 40+ yards, 3 from 50+ yards.
PK Circle of Trust #3 (Must-Start)
Justin Tucker, PK14 – Extra Points: 17 for 18. Field Goals: 12 for 14. 3 from 40+ yards, 1 from 50+ yards.
PK Circle of Trust #4 (Consistent Starter)
Evan McPherson, PK21 – Extra Points: 10 for 10. Field Goals: 10 for 12. 5 from 40+ yards, 3 from 50+ yards.
Younghoe Koo, PK19 – Extra Points: 8 for 9. Field Goals: 13 for 14. 4 from 40+ yards. 1 from 50+ yards.
Jason Sanders, PK23 – Extra Points: 9 for 9. Field Goals: 11 for 14. 2 from 40+ yards, 0 from 50+ yards.
Daniel Carlson, PK30 – Extra Points: 30 for 31. Field Goals: 6 for 8. 4 from 40+ yards, 0 from 50+ yards.
Jake Moody, PK12, – Extra Points: 24 for 24. Field Goals: 11 for 14. 2 from 40+ yards, 2 from 50+ yards.
Kickers Start % Risers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- Jason Myers, SEA: +49% (12% to 61%)
- Brett Maher, LAR: +33% (40% to 73%)
- Dustin Hopkins, CLE0: +17% (0% to 17%)
- Brandon McManus, JAC: +15% (22% to 37%)
- Chris Boswell, PIT: +13% (0% to 13%)
Kickers Start % Fallers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- Younghoe Koo, ATL: -2% (67% to 65%)
- Tyler Bass, BUF: -1% (98% to 97%)
- Jake Moody, SF: -2% (67% to 65%)
- Matt Gay, IND: -2% (13% to 11%)
- Matt Prater, ARI: -2% (4% to 2%)
Defence/Special Teams
D/ST Circle of Trust #1
Dallas Cowboys, DST1 – 16 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 8 interceptions, 3 touchdowns.
D/ST Circle of Trust #2
Buffalo Bills, DST2 – 28 sacks, 9 forced fumbles, 6 fumble recoveries, 8 interceptions, 1 touchdown.
D/ST Circle of Trust #3
Baltimore Ravens, DST4 – 29 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 6 interceptions, 0 touchdowns.
San Francisco 49ers, DST15 – 15 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 11 interceptions, 0 touchdowns.
Philadelphia Eagles, DST8 – 24 sacks, 8 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 3 interceptions, 1 touchdown.
D/ST Circle of Trust #4
New Orleans Saints, DST12 – 13 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, 8 interceptions, 1 touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs, DST10 – 22 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 6 fumble recoveries, 5 interceptions, 0 touchdowns.
New York Jets, DST9 – 13 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 8 interceptions, 1 touchdown.
*This study uses Yahoo’s default Full PPR settings.* The number on the left is their Started %, and the right is their Started Fantasy Points.
D/ST Start % Risers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- Cleveland Browns: +69% (6% to 75%)
- Seattle Seahawks: +56% (10% to 66%)
- Los Angeles Rams: +42% (12% to 54%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +38% (8% to 46%)
- Washington Commanders: +33% (17% to 50%)
D/ST Start % Fallers (From Week 6 to Week 7)
- Miami Dolphins: -56% (84% to 28%)
- Kansas City Chiefs: -27% (75% to 48%)
- Philadelphia Eagles: -26% (93% to 67%)
- Atlanta Falcons: -24% (34% to 10%)
- Baltimore Ravens: -16% (82% to 66%)
Bonus Data
Below is a table to show some of the players whose Week 1-5 performances were wasted most in fantasy leagues. I expect to see many of these names on waiver claims and Week 8 Sleeper columns.
If you didn’t see your favourite NFL player on the list and would like to see how they faired this week, look at the full list of players available all season long on my online Google Spreadsheet. For my full list of rankings, check out our redraft rankings page.
