The Chicago Bears have had a rough past couple of seasons, and in most cases, so have fantasy football managers who own Bears’ players. The Bears have won just eight games in each of the past two seasons. What is preventing them from winning a NFC North title like they did in 2018? The answer to that is their offense.
In 2018 the Bears had one of the best defenses we have seen over the past several years in the NFL. That ultimately led them to a 2018 NFC North division championship. However, even then the Chicago Bears weren’t a great offensive team. They haven’t been much better since then.
- 2018: 3,747 passing yards & 1,938 rushing yards(21st & 11th in the NFL)
- 2019: 3,573 passing yards & 1,458 rushing yards(24th & 26th in the NFL)
- 2020: 3,925 passing yards & 1,647 rushing yards(21st & 24th in the NFL)
As you can see, the Bears’ offense has struggled, especially in the last two seasons. They haven’t made too many acquisitions to improve it either. Justin Fields isn’t ready to take over the starting job yet, and it looks like Andy Dalton will be their starting quarterback to kick off the season.
What about David Montgomery? Last year he was the RB4 in fantasy football PPR leagues after a tremendous stretch in the last half of the season. Well, this season I’m expecting Montgomery to regress.
Over Montgomery’s last six games last season, he scored eight touchdowns. He had 11 total touchdowns on the season. He luckily had one of the easiest schedules in fantasy football for a running back to end the year, according to Football Outsider’s run-defense DVOA.
In addition, the Chicago Bears’ offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL going into the 2021 season. Pro Football Focus has the Bears’ offensive line ranked at 28th going into this season. That might even be a bit generous. They parted ways with Charles Leno Jr. and Bobbie Massie, who both spent five or more years with the team. They’re most likely going to start their rookie, Teven Jenkins, at left tackle. Germain Ifedi and Elijah Wilkinson will also battle for starting roles; neither has graded higher than 60.0 at their position over the past couple of seasons. The Bears’ offensive line just has too many questions around it for me to pick up David Montgomery in the 4th round of drafts.
Additionally, the Bears’ tight ends don’t offer anything for fantasy football owners in redraft leagues. Jimmy Graham (who turns 35 this season), was touchdown dependent in 2020. He finished as the TE13 in PPR and with Cole Kmet likely to be more involved in the offense in 2021, I don’t see a reason to grab Graham in any league.
Cole Kmet is also not worth grabbing in drafts considering he isn’t the starter yet. As long as Graham is still around, Kmet’s value in redraft leagues is next to none. Both tight ends are currently going undrafted, and it should stay that way.
Trust In A-Rob
Allen Robinson is the sole player in Chicago that you should pick up for fantasy football. Robinson has had to deal with pedestrian quarterback play in his first three seasons with the Bears. He’s had Mitchell Trubisky, Chase Daniels, and Nick Foles throw to him. Now, Andy Dalton will be his quarterback to start the 2021 season. We shouldn’t expect much of an upgrade at the position than in recent years. Regardless, Robinson will produce at a high level.
Allen Robinson has been one of the most reliable and consistent options at the receiver position. And honestly, the Bears player you can trust in fantasy football. Furthermore, there’s a ton to like about Robinson’s play in general.
A-Rob has only dropped six passes in the last three seasons. The Bears, surprisingly enough, have ranked as the 11th and 6th pass-heaviest offenses in the last two seasons. Also, as mentioned above, Robinson was the WR8 for fantasy football in 2019, while his quarterback (Mitchell Trubisky) ranked 28th in PFF passing grade. Quarterback play truly doesn’t seem to matter much when it comes to Allen Robinson producing at a high level. Currently going in the 4th round of drafts (34th overall), Allen Robinson is a solid option going into the 2021 season.
Whatever you do, don’t trust the Bears offense in your drafts unless you’re going to pick up Allen Robinson. David Montgomery is due for a slide in his production. Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, and Nick Foles also won’t provide your team much help this season, other than giving you some depth on your bench. Lastly, Jimmy Graham and Cole Kmet also have little value in redraft, other than being possible streaming options during the season. Trust in A-Rob.
