In our latest installment of fantasy football “Sleeper Candidates”, we take a look at Chargers rookie WR Josh Palmer. This deep dive will cover his underwhelming college career, projected standing within the Chargers’ hierarchy, and latest reports out of training camp. Does he have what it takes to carve out a role on one of the NFL’s most promising offenses? Spoiler alert: absolutely.
Player Profile
Palmer is a 6’2”, 210 lbs WR out of Tennessee who selected in the 3rd round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He’s a great deep threat with fantastic hands, having dropped only four of his 163 college targets. Palmer even led the SEC in yards per reception in his sophomore year.
So what’s the catch? Well, Palmer never managed to break 500 yards or five TDs in a college season. Before you write this guy off, you have to understand how poor the QB play has been at Tennessee. The team has only had one QB exceed 2,000 passing yards in four years, and even as a committee never surpassed 2,500. I mean seriously, how can you expect production from a WR when 31% of his targets were uncatchable?
Competition Concerns
Palmer immediately enters a high-powered offense with massive upside. The Chargers have a completely revamped offensive line, with rookie OT Rashawn Slater already turning heads, and a second-year QB in Justin Herbert that stands as one of the most promising young talents in the league. Additionally, Palmer lands in one of the most pass-happy schemes in the NFL, coming in 5th in pass attempts (627) and 6th in passing yards (4329) last season.
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The main issue for Palmer is his competition. The Chargers’ have an excess of WR3 options, with both Jalen Guyton and Tryon Johson holding their own as explosive deep threats. Palmer would have to overtake both of them on the depth chart, and then still most likely land as the #4 or #5 target behind RB Austin Ekeler and TE Jared Cook. He’d have a huge opening if WRs Keenan Allen or Mike Williams miss time, but it’s never smart to bank on injuries.
The good news is that the Chargers have roughly a fifth of their 2020 targets up for grabs. After TE Hunter Henry and RB Kalen Ballage departed in the offseason, 120 targets remain unaccounted for. You’d think a lot of those would be absorbed by a fully healthy Ekeler, but it’s more likely he takes from the 47 targets of RBs Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley. Cook is a good candidate to replace Henry, but he’s 34 years old now and only had about 60 targets each of the last two years. Palmer’s path to success isn’t obvious, but it is there.
Up-and-Coming
Here’s where the real hype begins: early reports have Palmer as the 2nd best WR at Chargers training camp. There’s no chance Palmer wins the full WR2 job in 2021, but it’s an extremely promising sign given the talent that surrounds him. Both Palmer and Johnson have drawn praise from reporters, but Palmer is the only one of the WR3s to be drafted and invested in by the team. And on top of that, both Johnson and Guyton have already been dealing with injuries this summer.
Palmer is rightfully going undrafted in most fantasy football redraft leagues. In dynasty leagues, he can be had for a bargain. He won’t have any consistent value this year outside of injury situations, but sits as one of the most intriguing fantasy football dynasty options out there. Williams, Johnson, Guyton, and Cook are all on the last year of their contracts, paving the way for Palmer to end up as the #2 target in a fantastic offense sooner rather than later. Grab him while you can, folks.
