Fantasy Football: Best and Worst Redraft Values, AFC South Edition

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Fantasy Football Ryan Tannehill

In this week’s edition, we head to the AFC South, a division that is all over the place (check out the last article featuring the NFC South here). We have the Titans and Colts as the clear favorites in the division. The Jaguars have a hopeful young offense, and as for the Texans, I can only shake my head in disgust at the current state of that roster. Nevertheless, there are some prized fantasy football assets in this division, along with quite a few players with the potential to grow into more significant roles. It will be fun seeing how this division unfolds during the 2021 season.

Colts O/U 10 Projected Wins

The Colts have the roster to contend well into January this year and possibly compete for a Super Bowl if all breaks right for them. The problem is that they have a massive question mark at the quarterback position this year.

Carson Wentz was an absolute disaster last season for the Philadelphia Eagles. He finished 28th with a QBR of 49.6 and received a 60 passing grade from PFF, ranking him 35th out of 42 qualified passers. It was flat-out ugly for Wentz in 2020, which lead to his benching at the end of the season.

Wentz needed a change of scenery in the worst way and got his wish. So which version of Wentz will show up for the Colts? Is it the guy who competed for an MVP back in 2017, or will it be last year’s utter disappointment? That’s the 47 million dollar question surrounding this team.

Good: Jonathan Taylor RB7 ADP 9.2

You know that Jonathan Taylor is the shiny new toy every fantasy football team would love to roster. He possesses everything you would want from a player at the running back position. An elite talent connected to one of the best offensive lines in the NFL is what you search for when you are chasing fantasy points at the running back position.

Taylor was eighth in touches with 268, and finished sixth in yards with 1,468 among skill players last year as a rookie. So it’s no surprise Taylor finished first amongst rookies in scrimmage yards. Taylor did this on 50.3% snap share and a 52.9% opportunity share. Meaning when he touched the ball Taylor made the most of his situation.

My favorite thing for Taylor this year is something I do not see brought up often: the addition of Wentz. Wentz does not target running backs in the same light as the check-down king Phillip Rivers has in his career. What this move does is hurt his teammates at the running back position, mainly Nyheim Hines. This simultaneously boosts Taylor’s role in the offense.

It is a win-win, as the Colts will rely heavily on Taylor this year. Taylor will be featured early and often this season, as he proved to be a more than capable pass-catching back in his rookie year. If all goes according to plan for Taylor, he will finish as a top-five fantasy RB for 2021.

Bad: Carson Wentz QB22 ADP 161.3

Earlier I mentioned how badly Wentz struggled last year, so it should be no surprise to see him here. Read the tweet above, and you see that Wentz was the number one problem for the Eagles, not the offensive line. Wentz had numerous issues last season and the offensive line was cast as the scapegoat, even though PFF ranked them as the 16th best in pass blocking grade. That’s nowhere near as brutal as you would think from a team that allowed 50 sacks in Wentz’s 12 games last year.

Wentz held the ball and was extraordinarily gun-shy. It shows up when watching the tape and when you look at his time to throw per attempt. Next-Gen Stats had Wentz at 2.91 seconds per attempt, sixth worst in the NFL. It supports the narrative of Wentz as gun-shy last season.

Wentz had a completion percentage of 4.1 points worse than his expected completion percentage last year. Countless stats signify how truly broken Wentz was last fall. He needs to fix the issues he faced if the Colts are going to succeed this year. If he can fix those problems, the Colts can challenge for the division title. Conversely, if Wentz is to falter for a second consecutive season, the narrative around him will flip on him.

At his cost, I would instead invest in Carr, Wilson, Roethlisberger, and Mayfield over Wentz. I do not see Wentz beating his ADP in Indianapolis.

Titans O/U 9.5 Projected Wins

I am shocked Tennessee is not the favorite to win the division this season. The offense will smash with the addition of All-World talent Julio Jones to pair with A.J. Brown on the outside. The fearsome foursome of Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, Brown, and Jones are terrifying.

Both Henry and Tannehill proved that elite players can stave off “regression.” They had career years in 2020. The Titans will once again be one of the most efficient offenses in the league. The questions revolve around the defense and if it is capable of stopping anyone.

Good: Ryan Tannehill QB11 ADP 103.7

Ryan Tannehill has been exceptional ever since taking over for Marcus Mariota in 2019. He has put up some of the best numbers on low passing volume, highlighting just how efficient a quarterback Tannehill has been. Of course, consecutive seasons over a 7% touchdown rate will boost points fantasy football numbers for any quarterback. However, when you look at it on a micro level, his points per dropback were #2 last season with .64. So when the ball was in Tannehill’s hand, good things were occurring for your fantasy team.

Two essential factors are leading to me being bullish on Tannehill for this upcoming year. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith leaving for the head coaching job in Atlanta, and Julio Jones arrival in Tennessee. Both of these instances will shift the Titans to relying more on Tannehill this year.

Bad: Derrick Henry RB3 ADP 3.6

Let’s get this out of the way. Derrick Henry is a great running back and does things on the football field very few can do. He will have a productive season, and my only issue is that Henry is drafted at or slightly above what his ceiling is this year.

Are you saying Henry cannot finish the season as the RB1? That’s solely what I am saying. Henry put up a ridiculous stat line of 2,027 yards on 378 carries and 17 touchdowns. The led to him finishing as the RB3 in PPR leagues this last season. So if you are drafting Henry as the RB3, you expect him to replicate those rushing numbers.

Alternatively, you would be disappointed by him putting up 1,700 rushing yards and ten rushing touchdowns. The problem is Henry does not give you any receiving work, and, as the late, great Robin Williams once said, “That’s the good stuff.” Unfortunately, what the lack of receiving work does, is it caps his ceiling. So it’s questionable to believe Henry ever pays off his ADP cost.

Jaguars O/U 6 Projected Wins

The Jaguars hit the jackpot this offseason and landed the golden boy Trevor Lawerence. They then doubled down and grabbed his Clemson running mate in Travis Etienne. For a team projected near the bottom in wins, they sure will be a fun team to watch on the offensive side of the ball.

TLaw stepped into one of the better situations a rookie can have. The Jaguars have all five starters coming back on the offensive line and should produce fireworks. The defense, well, that’s an entirely different discussion. Expect weekly shootouts in Jacksonville this year.

Good: Travis Etienne RB23 ADP 59.8

I still do not understand what is happening with Etienne this offseason. The running back who went one spot behind Najee Harris in the NFL draft is falling well below him in fantasy football drafts. Etienne is going to an offense with a generational quarterback, five linemen returning, and weapons on the outside. Going ten spots behind Harris does not add up to me.

I ask again why are we discounting him? The only answer I can come up with is James Robinson. Robinson was an UDFA, and we saw how the Jaguars view him by spending a 1st round pick on a player at his position. He had a great year as a rookie, but the two most significant indicators on how a team views a player are contract and draft capital. If James Robinson possesses neither of those qualities, how do expect this to end for Robinson?

Travis Etienne has an elite prospect profile and compares closely to D’Andre Swift, per PlayerProfiler. The fantasy football community is thrilled with Swift, yet has shown trepidation when it comes to Etienne. He even produced a 12% Target Share as a Senior to show that he has the receiving chops we covet in PPR. Etienne is the sort of running back you should pushing up our draft boards, not down. Smash the draft button in the 4th or 5th round this season.

Bad: James Robinson RB31 ADP 93.2

If I am bullish on one running back in an offense, I will fade the other running back going inside the top 100 picks this year. I genuinely do not understand why we as a community are so high on Robinson. He will not pay off at his current ADP.

Etienne, at a minimum, will be the passing down back this year. On a team that will be in numerous passing game scripts throughout the season. The defense is in for a rough season, and for the offense to stay in games, they will have to rely on Lawerence, not James Robinson. Robinson saw 60 targets last season, so if you remove that role, what value does he possess?

Fade Robinson at his cost, and you will not have to worry about the headache he will be to fantasy managers this season.

Texans O/U 5 Projected Wins

The Texans organization is a mess. Deshaun Watson had an exceptional season last year, and the Texans only won four games. The team also released J.J. Watt and let Will Fuller sign with Miami this offseason. Add in the confusion going on with Watson off of the field, and you have to wonder if the projected win total of five is an unreasonable expectation.

There are only two players I want to roster this season on the Texans for fantasy football. They are Brandin Cooks and Deshaun Watson. The rest are likely to have no weekly impact on fantasy lineups. With Watson’s status still up in the air, Cooks is the only player I feel good about having on my team this year. Unfortunately, it is going to be a rough year for them. So the best strategy to me would be to fade everyone outside of those two players.

Good: Brandin Cooks WR45 ADP 91.0

We want the number one receiving option on teams for fantasy football. We want those players because they garner targets, and one thing we know is that volume is king in fantasy. Cooks has done nothing but produce consistency year in, and year out. Cooks is the player you want to roster, as good players produce no matter who the quarterback is. Targets equal fantasy football success. Cooks is going to see the lion’s share of the work this year.

The players behind Cooks on the depth chart are Anthony Miller, Nico Collins, Keke Coutee, and Andre Roberts. While we may like Nico as a prospect, the lack of talent in the receiving room is evident to anyone who looks at the roster. As a result, no one is going to challenge Cooks for targets this offseason. It will be Cooks and then everyone else.

Imagine if Watson were to play as Cooks’ quarterback for Houston? He would jump inside the top-20 wide receivers for this season. Buy into the talent of Cooks, and you will reap the rewards with a WR2/3 season.

Bad: David Johnson RB45 ADP 137.0

I am fading all Houston running backs this year. It is a cluster of guys I have zero interest in redraft. What carried David Johnson last year were his snap count and opportunity share. Johnson earned a hefty usage in an offense attached to Watson. You take away Watson, and this rushing attack looks prone to fail miserably. Bringing in names such as Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram, and Rex Burkhead to compete with Johnson will only take away some of Johnson’s potential workload. I see no upside in this backfield, so it’s not a buy-low scenario for me, it is a stay away at all if possible.

He will be less efficient while receiving less work in a far more detrimental offense this year. I see no way Johnson pays off at his current ADP. Fade him and all other Houston running backs at cost. You are not missing anything by entirely passing on the Houston backfield this year.

Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.

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