Fantasy Football: Buy, Sell, & Hold – NFC North

How is your fantasy football season going? Are you contending, rebuilding or unsure of where you stand? These questions should be answered before taking into account the information provided. It’s important to know the right time to buy, sell or hold on players.

Take a look at your team; what is your record right now? Where do you stand in total points, and points against? This is more of an indication of where you stand than your record. Decide where your team is, and see what you can do with these players. Buying and selling at the right time can help you not only compete today, but ensure you are staying competitive in the future as well. 

See previous buy, sell, hold here… NFC East, AFC East, NFC West, AFC West

Buy – A.J. Dillon, RB Green Bay Packers

One of the most consvertial picks in the 2020 draft. AJ Dillon was barely used last year, but had one brilliant game late in the year. He went off for 124 yards and TD against the Titans in Week 16. 

Jamaal Williams left in the offseason, opening up the spot behind Aaron Jones on the depth chart. The first three games, Dillon saw an average of 29% snap share. In Week 4, he jumped to 40%, and was able to turn 15 carries into 81 yards. In Week 5 he had 33% snap share, but got involved in the passing game. Dillon turned four targets into four receptions, 49 yards and a TD. 

Aaron Jones is the lead back; Dillon isn’t threatening that. However, Dillon has cemented his name as a must own handcuff. He also has some Flex play appeal in a pinch. If something ever were to happen to Jones, Dillon would get the bulk of the carries. Kylin Hill would mix in because the Packers like using multiple backs, but I believe it would be Dillon’s backfield. 

We don’t know what the future holds with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. My guess is if they do leave in the offseason, the Packers would rely on the run even more. 

Jones got a four year contract, but there is a potential out after the 2022 season. His cap hit jumps significantly going into the 2023 season; he will be 29 that year. Dillons contract is up after the 2023 season. We may see a season of Dillon leading this backfield. 

Honorable Mention – Jamaal Williams, RB Detroit Lions 

A cheap depth option to add. He is 26 years old, but doesn’t have the wear and tear of a workhorse back. He could be a Flex PPR back in fantasy football for years to come. 

Sell – Adam Thielen, WR Minnesota Vikings

The window to sell was really in the offseason – after his 14 TD season. Adam Thielen was a top-10 WR in fantasy football last year. If you held on for any reason, sell now! 

I’d start by turning the attention of the buyer to the first three games of this season, where he had four TDs. He is still someone you can rely on as a WR2 (with upside) in your lineup. He is currently WR19 on the season. Thielen has averaged 7.4 targets per game. Even in a poor Week 4 stinker, he had eight targets.  

You may want to wait until after a boom game, but put him on the trade block and see what offers come your way. He is 31 years old, but with his upside to help a contending team he could still fetch a decent return. 

Hold – Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

What do you do with a 28-year old former top-12 WR who has had a slow start? You hold. Allen Robinson has proven to us that you can still be a top-12 WR with poor QB play.

He started the year with 11 targets against the Rams. However, his targets have gone down to 4, 6, 3 and 5 in the last four games. That’s not what you want to see from the guy you are relying on as your WR1/WR2. Patience is going to be important. You may be able to get a decent deal done with his name and history, but I wouldn’t sell low.

I also would caution buying. 28 is typically the peak age for WRs. Meaning, his value is likely to go down from here on out. With his name and pedigree you are not getting him cheap enough. 

Justin Fields was named the starter of the Bears for the rest of the year. I believe that these two will start to build the chemistry you want to see. Another possibility is that Robinson is traded. He is currently playing on the franchise tag and will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. The Bears could look to move him if they aren’t playing for anything. That would be better than losing him for nothing. 

I am waiting until a run of good games, then I am looking to sell if I am not competing this year. 

Honorable Mention – Cole Kmet, The Chicago Bears

I just wanted to throw this name out there. TE’s take time. Just look at those fantasy football owners who were patient with Dawson Knox. Kmet is only in his second year, don’t give him away out of frustration just yet!