So Long and Thanks for the Fish: Can Tua Propel the Dolphins to Outer Space in 2021?

Chances are you don’t know Douglas Adams. In case you do, I’ll spare you his resume. But, in 1979, Adams published The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy; a farcical romp through the cosmos with Arthur Dent, Ford Prefect and slew of zany characters who join them on their misadventures. 

Originally released in London, the book became an international phenomenon and spawned five additional novels. It was an immediate success in the United Kingdom and has achieved a substantial cult following since. 

One of the more curious, smaller components of the novel describes Earth’s second-most intelligent creatures. Yup, you guessed it – dolphins. Falling just short of mice for the top spot, Adams’s dolphins decided it was in their best interest to leave Earth before it’s inevitable destruction, having failed to alert humans of their impending doom with their “amusing attempts to punch footballs” that were actually secret messages. 

The NFL’s Dolphins have experienced their own amusing attempts to punch footballs in recent history. However, the 2020 version of this team was not to be misinterpreted. Head Coach Brian Flores’s brand of hard-nosed defense was paired with a surprising Chan Gailey offense that competed with the likes of the Bills and Patriots in their division. 

Finishing 10-6 in 2020 and narrowly missing the playoffs, Phins fans and the team are understandably excited for their 2021 prospects. However, unlike last season, when Ryan Fitzpatrick began the year and came to the rescue late, the hopes of the franchise now rest securely on second-year signal caller Tua Tagovialoa. 

So what will Tua bring to the table in his first full season as the team’s undisputed, #1 quarterback? How will he do in fantasy football? And how will the new cast of characters combine to blast the Dolphins into the stratosphere and beyond in the AFC?

Let’s find out…

Don’t Panic!

The book on Tua as an NFL and fantasy football player, thus far, remains largely unwritten. However, we did see some flashes last season as the rookie dealt with a team dedicated to a veteran QB and, potentially, some lingering effects of the devasting hip injury he suffered in November of 2019.

For a quarterback in the modern NFL, mobility is everything; and Tagovailoa at least checked that box once he took the reins. Though 36 attempts for 109 yards doesn’t stand out amongst today’s QB rushing numbers, he did manage to punch in three TDs over 10 games played. And, given his recovery and full-time role, he could see those numbers rise significantly in 2021.

Tua isn’t a running quarterback by trade. He makes his money with his arm. And, last year, he completed a respectable 64.1% of his passes with 11 TDs and five INTs. The problem, however, was his 1814 yards and 6.3 yards per attempt, the latter of which was 30^th in the league, per Player Profiler. In fact, the only metrics in his favor were based on accuracy, likely due to the short nature of his passes. 

But the Dolphins have taken a moonshot this offseason, inking free agent deep threat Will Fuller and draft speedster Jaylen Waddle 6^th overall in the NFL draft. These two, combined with team stalwarts DeVante Parker and tight end Mike Gesicki, form a nice group of receiving weapons for the young QB. Additionally, Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed are serviceable pass-catchers out of the backfield in their own right.

The keys to the universe have been handed to Tagovailoa now that Fitzpatrick has moved on. But will he be able to floor the competition this year (and become a fantasy football asset) or will this offense be stuck in neutral?

Life, the Universe and Everything in Flux

A gaping hole in the middle of this South Beach puzzle is the resignation of offensive coordinator Chan Gailey after just one season in Miami. Whatever the reason for his departure, Gailey’s absence could spell trouble for the 2021 iteration of this offense. 

Now at the helm are co-offensive coordinators George Godsey and Eric Studesville. As internal staff promotions, neither coach brings with him much of a pedigree or track record. And, as far as Tua’s development and fantasy football outlook is concerned, it’s as much of a wildcard as the coaches are.

Given the new personnel on the offensive side of the ball, the old coaches in new positions and the new playbook, it admittedly could take time for this offense to gel – if it does at all. 

Mostly Harmless

Even at 10-6, the Dolphins offense was pretty stale in 2020. And, given that’s all we have to go on since Godsey and Studesville claim the offense will be a little bit of everything, we can assume they’ll try to keep what went right. 

Last season the Dolphins offense finished 22^nd in yards per game and 15^th in points per game. The rushing and passing games were just average in terms of their production as a whole and the only member of the team who finished in the Top-10 at his position was placekicker Jason Sanders. 

To be fair, an average finish in production is a testament to the coaching staff, who overcame a 1-3 start to the season while managing a transition to a rookie QB. Yet the fact remains that this offense didn’t scare anyone, scoring north of 30 points just three times over the course of the season. 

Now, with field stretchers galore, the team will hope to open up all areas of the field; with the backs running shorter routes and the Parker and Gesicki likely patrolling the intermediate area of the field. The key point will be whether or not Tagovailoa can improve upon his 24^th ranked Deep Ball Completion % to help give this attack some teeth. 

And Another Thing…

Gaskin, Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed don’t exactly inspire fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators. By all accounts, the unit overachieved as a whole running behind Pro Football Focus’s 28^th ranked offensive line. PFF projects the unit to fall to 30^th this season. 

If the Dolphins are hoping to ascend to great heights in the AFC this season, it’ll once again need to rely on a relatively soft schedule to pick up wins and gain confidence. Miami performed well against 2020’s easiest strength of schedule in the NFL according to Mike Clay. In 2021, they will face Clay’s fifth easiest schedule. So it is at least possible that Miami repeats their magical run from a year ago.  

… but it’s not likely. 

What is likely is that the Fitz magic has worn off and the team will regress. Losing a few starting defensive pieces, like Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson could hurt and, right now, the threat of a Xavien Howard holdout is real. With the offense yet undefined and the defense potentially taking a step back; it’s very possible the Dolphins become the average team (and fool’s gold in fantasy football) they were destined to be last season.

The NFL galaxy is a vast ocean filled with dangerous predators and even fewer safe havens. While the Miami Dolphins have some aspects of a positive outlook, it’s mostly not great. In the words of Douglas Adams himself, Miami’s upcoming season might look something like this:

“For a moment, nothing happened. Then, after a second or so, nothing continued to happen.”

And, for what it’s worth, #42 is backup safety Clayton Fejedelem… though I’m not so sure he’s the answer to any of the Dolphins problems in 2021.

[pickup_prop id=”5107″]