Projecting the fantasy football outlook of Miami Dolphins running back Myles Gaskin for the 2021 NFL season.
Before the love of fantasy football, when I was a child, I was gifted an encyclopedia on animals.
If you have kids, you’ve seen books like this. Everything-you-wanted-to-know-about tomes were a staple of my early personal education, but this volume still made a lasting impression, so much so that my son now regularly flips through the exact same copy that I did at his age. Nostalgia, negligence, or maybe both, kept the volume with me through multiple moves to multiple countries.
Sentimentality aside, the book posed some intriguing questions that wormed their way into my 6-year-old brain. How do bats fly if they’re blind? How do snakes digest food if they swallow it whole? And, the mother of all animal related queries, at least for me: Do fish sleep?
The answer, of course – at least according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s website – is yes, though it is a different definition of sleep than that associated with land mammals. Fish reduce their activity and metabolism at rest and either float, burrow or nest during periods of “suspended animation.”
So, when looking at the potential of under-the-radar players on the Miami Dolphins, we need to consider that a Dolphin sleeper may look a little different than a sleeper on other squads.
First, miss me with the “dolphins are mammals” chatter. Segues can be tricky business.
Second, dolphin sleeping is even more different. Turns out, a dolphin turns off one hemisphere of its brain at a time, closing one eye for sleep while the other stays open and alert for predators. And, according to the Smithsonian Magazine website, they switch off every two hours or so, every day, until they get a full eight hours.
More importantly, if you’ve read my previous article on the Dolphins offense as a unit, you’ll already know I’m low on this group as a whole and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s prospects for this season. However, there is value to be had on nearly every NFL squad in fantasy football terms; you just need to look at things a bit differently.
This year, that value comes in the form of running back Myles Gaskin
Myles Gaskin is no well-kept secret in fantasy football circles. He’s not a screaming value at his current Sleeper Redraft PPR ADP of RB23 either. At pick 60.9 on average, Gaskin is going at the top of the 5th round in 12-team leagues.
Clearly, this is not your typical sleeper, and many are only half-awake to Gaskin’s potential this season. Segue complete.
Big Fish or Small Pond?
To be clear, Gaskin was seemingly just an average fantasy football RB last season. But, as the last back selected in the 2019 NFL draft, Mr. Nearly Irrelevant became very significant for fantasy football teams in 2020 as a waiver wire addition; as he would end up posting 41 total receptions and 97 combined yards per game. Having only played in 10 games due to injury, Gaskin’s RB28 PPR finish on just 183 touches is more than enough for some to have visions of top-24 production in 2021. I’m suggesting he could flirt with the top-15.
While it is true that the Dolphins made a significant effort to upgrade the offense in the offseason; a bottom-five offensive line, an inexperienced QB and a coordinated coordinator effort are all likely to hold the team back this season. And I’m still ranking Gaskin higher than consensus. Here’s why:
Running with Porpoise
For one, Myles Gaskin finished within the top-10 running backs in Player Profiler’s Snap Share and Opportunity Share metrics on a per-game basis. Additionally, he ranked 13th among NFL RBs in Red Zone Touches, seventh in Receiving Yards and 10th in Fantasy Points Per Game. Oh, and Gaskin was the best in the league when it came to Yards Per Reception.
Though his team likely contributed to his fairly poor efficiency numbers elsewhere, Miami has made no indication that they are unhappy with Gaskin leading the charge this season. The third-year back is again in line for a boost in production, especially if he can stay healthy. Salvon Ahmed, veteran addition Malcolm Brown, and 7th round pick Gerrid Doaks are the only true threat to Gaskin’s touch dominance in the backfield. While this group is likely to siphon some work, Gaskin should still to see the majority of the touches and could be in line for an Alvin Kamara-esque role as an undersized #1.
Making Waves
Given his pace and his metrics from a season ago, Gaskin would’ve finished with 930 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground, with another 617 receiving yards and three more TDs on 65 receptions. That’s on 293 total touches. To put that in perspective, he would’ve gained more yards from scrimmage than all but Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook while catching the third-most balls at the position. Gaskin could have been an RB1 in 2020, if healthy.
Of course, extrapolating numbers in this fashion is usually a fool’s errand. Fishing for statistics that justify your position is all too common, and I’m not suggesting that Gaskin will see a 66% share of RB touches as the numbers above demand.
However, a mid-range RB2 finish is absolutely within a safe range of outcomes for the third-year Dolphin. If we place Gaskin in a true timeshare last season and give him just 12 touches a game for the six games he missed, he still finishes north of 250 touches on the season. At that number, he’s looking at something like 1,320 total yards and 55 receptions, eighth and fifth among backs, respectively. And the Dolphins know it:
Pass game skills likely contributing to Dolphins trust of Myles Gaskin https://t.co/staJ7mjfnE
— The Dolphins Wire (@thedolphinswire) July 4, 2021
Fin.
The point here is that, at a price for a back-end RB2, you can find mid-range RB2 production with upside if the Dolphins’ offense takes off or if Gaskin finds more TD success than his 36th ranked 2.7% rate from a year ago.
So, don’t sleep on this fish in 2021. Instead, keep one eye on him in drafts and, especially if he slips, don’t be afraid to dive in and take a shot on the dream of Myles Gaskin this season.
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Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.