Terrace Marshall hooks up with his former OC Joe Brady in Carolina, and should be a great fantasy football dynasty asset going forward.
In my second installment of Fantasy Football Buys, I’ll be looking at Terrace Marshall. In the last article, we took a look at Michael Gallup. Let’s dive in.
In the 2021 NFL Draft the Carolina Panthers selected Terrace Marshall 59th overall. Marshall reunites with Joe Brady, and is put into an electric offense under Matt Rhule. The room for opportunity may seem shallow at first glance; but talent creates opportunity, and Marshall has it in spades.
Time at LSU
The Analytics
Terrace Marshall spent three seasons at LSU, compiling 1,594 yards and 23 touchdowns (don’t forget he was playing behind Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson).
His breakout season occurred when he was 19.2 (84th percentile) in 2019; though arguably his best year was in 2020 where he only played in seven contests, but had career-highs in catches, yards, average, and snaps played. What makes his 2020 more impressive is that he had his career-year with some horrific quarterback play.
Marshall’s metrics are just below the criteria for an ‘extraordinary’ player, per Playerprofiler’s grading system. That said, they’re still impressive. He ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, and ranked in the 85th percentile in both speed and burst scores.
The Film
I took the time to watch as much film as possible on Marshall prior to the draft, and then again after to reassess. Here’s what I noticed.
Plays Physically
Marshall is a fast player (as his 4.45 forty would suggest), but he also is a physical wide receiver. For a player with his size, playing physically is incredibly important, and can lead to elite results. In this first clip, Marshall runs a 9 route against a soft zone coverage in a shallow-ish part of the field. This shouldn’t be completed, but it is, for a touchdown.
In this next clip (special thanks to FF Astronauts), Marshall again faces a zone coverage. He meets the cornerback head on and is able to displace him, eventually finding the soft spot in the zone for a huge gain.
Marshall is great at coming down with contested catches, and this physicality should only benefit him at the next level.
High IQ
One common phrase you’ll hear when watching any tape of Terrace Marshall is ‘wide open’. Yes, he is an excellent route runner, but it’s his high football IQ that allows him to be open on such a consistent basis. Marshall has an innate ability to find the soft spot in zone coverages. When it turns into ‘backyard football’ he routinely loses his defender and positioning himself in a way that can produce net-positive results for his team.
Versatility
An underrated aspect for young wide receivers is the ability to play in the slot, and on the outside. Marshall has experience doing both, and does it well. He remains fluid regardless of position. Marshall excels as a downfield threat, but has the capability to be a factor in the short-passing game as well. His ability to get to his maximize speed quickly allows for some incredible YAC potential.
Fantasy Football Outlook
Vacated Targets and Rookie Potential
Terrace Marshall was drafted by the Carolina Panthers in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Honestly, it was probably one of the best places for him to land. Reuniting with Joe Brady shouldn’t go unnoticed, and the potential for him to be a key player in that offense is there.
Going into this season, the Carolina Panthers have the 5th-highest vacated targets, averaging to 12.8 targets per game. Expecting Marshall to get all of those targets is fool’s gold. But it isn’t out of the realm of possibility for him to average 5-6 per game in his rookie season. That averages out to around 94 targets for this season (88 in a 16-game season).
Wide receivers usually tend to hit their college yards per reception average, or at least with a standard deviation of 1 in either direction. For argument’s sake, let’s use Marshall’s 15 YPR average at LSU, incorporate the potential 88 targets in a 16-game season, along with the fairly ‘standard’ (for WR’s at least) catch percentage of 64%.
64% of 88 targets is roughly 56 catches. Multiple that with his average YPR, and that’s 840 yards on the season – or 140 PPR points. That, excluding TDs, would have made him a WR5 in 2020, which is right around the finish of great wide receivers in their rookie season. I would expect a similar finish for Marshall this season.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Potential
DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Christian McCaffrey are all going to get touches this season in Carolina, but that shouldn’t be the case going forward. Robby Anderson is in the last year of his deal, and despite him reuniting with Sam Darnold, there’s a real chance he doesn’t play in Carolina next season.
On top of that, Christian McCaffrey can’t keep up this type of workload much longer if the team expects to rely on him going forward. Historically, a RB garnering that many touches drastically slows down. As great as CMac is, he isn’t superhuman. It will happen to him too.
At the moment, Terrace Marshall’s overall ADP is as the WR63, per Sleeper’s database. He’s being taken as roughly the 118th pick in all three dynasty formats (PPR, Half-PPR, and SF) which is at the end of round 9 in 12-team leagues. Since the draft, he has dropped roughly 10 spots in ADP per DLF, and now is the time you should be buying him.
Terrace Marshall’s trade value in fantasy football leagues is currently all over the place. You could get him for a 2022 2nd Round pick, an older veteran, or a package. It truly varies depending on who you’re trading with in your league.
Marshall is only 21 years old, and should be an incredible wide receiver in the NFL. His history with lower extremity injuries is mildly concerning, but no player can ever be truly ‘injury prone’ (outside of concussions). Buy Marshall now, and reap the benefits going forward.
