As we head down the home stretch, Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary are back with another edition of fact or fiction. The guys discuss four important fantasy football topics and each makes their case for or against.
It’s time for fact or fiction.
Jaylen Waddle is a top-15 dynasty wide receiver
Joe: Fact
Jaylen Waddle was one of my biggest misses this offseason. I liked the talent when evaluating Waddle, but didn’t see the immediate fantasy football impact he’s made coming. According to DLF’s November startup data, Waddle is currently WR28 – being taken in startups. This feels too low. Waddle is behind the likes of Mike Williams, Michael Pittman, and Courtland Sutton. While WR15 or better is a bit aggressive due to the amount of talent at the position, Jaylen Waddle has proven he deserves to be there. Waddle is currently a WR1 (top=12) on the season. I’ll take my chances he continues to be a PPR monster for years to come. Jaylen Waddle is here to stay.
Jesse: Fiction
Jaylen Waddle is a player on the rise. I even saw people saying he the fantasy football dynasty WR1 over Ja’Marr Chase, and I almost spit out my drink. I understand that Waddle has been fantastic as a rookie, but a few things are working against Waddle before I can confidently put him inside my top-15 dynasty WR. First, the competition is stiff at the top, and I need a player to check all the boxes before doing that.
Waddle’s lack of target competition stands out to me. The wide receiver room has been missing its two top options for most of the season. The Dolphins signed Will Fuller in free agency, and he has yet to play a complete game. In addition, DeVante Parker has been hamstrung for the majority of the season with numerous injuries. It allowed for Waddle to step in and be a factor immediately. I would like to see Waddle maintain his target share with a healthy Parker playing alongside him, as elite wide receivers earn targets no matter who plays alongside them.
Second, the next significant long-term worry is Waddle’s low aDOT. Targets earned closer to the line of scrimmage limit a player’s ceiling in fantasy football. Waddle is currently 133rd in the NFL in aDOT. However, if he shows that he can increase his aDOT while keeping his target share, I will happily lock him into my top-12 wide receivers moving forward. Until then, Waddle will be outside my top-20 dynasty wide receivers.
Saquon Barkley over 17.51 PPR points (Sleeper Projection)
Joe: Fiction
This projection seems a little steep for Saquon Barkley this week. The usage Barkely is seeing is elite. The production, however, is not. Barkley hasn’t eclipsed 13.4 PPR points since his return. The matchup is favorable this week, but it’s hard to trust anybody in this Giants offense, including Saquon with Jake Fromm under center. I’m going under 17.51 points for Saquads this week.
Jesse: Fact
Let me start by saying Saquon is the most talented running back to come along in the NFL possibly ever. He was the complete package coming out of Penn State. But sheesh, have injuries taken a toll on this running back. It has been a rough comeback season for Saquon. Just when he was starting to look like himself, Saquon suffered a high ankle sprain that kept him out for five weeks. On the positive side, Saquon did see a season-high nine targets last week. The problem was they only led to 19 receiving yards.
Nevertheless, the usage has finally returned to the workhorse role we are used to seeing Saquon in. It is a matter of efficiency for him at this point. Without that, it does not matter how many attempts a player earns. Thankfully, Saquon faces the Chargers, a genuine run funnel defense.
The Chargers have allowed the 3rd most fantasy football points over average to opposing running backs. This implies running backs feast on the ground, as the Chargers are urging teams to beat them via the run. I am hopeful Saquon and the Giants will take advantage of the Chargers’ weakness in this matchup. Give me the over this week for Saquon Barkley.
Chuba Hubbard will be a top-15 RB in Week 14
Joe: Fact
With the news that Christian Mccaffrey would miss the rest of the season, it’s once again time to see Chuba Hubbard in a more expanded role. Hubbard won’t see a complete autonomy of the backfield like he did earlier in the season; including passing down work with the addition of Ameer Abdullah. Despite that, I still like Hubbard in a plus matchup versus the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Falcons are a bottom-tier team against the run allowing 119.3 rushing yards per game.
The position is trimmed down a little this week with Jonathan Taylor and few others on bye weeks, so I’m willing to take the shot on Hubbard. Chuba is a fine plug-and-play option in Week 14. 85 total yards and a score is in the range of outcomes for Hubbard against the Falcons.
Jesse: Fiction
As CMC’s replacement, Chuba Hubbard received the lion’s share of the workload, which paid off. From Weeks 4-8, while CMC was out, Hubbard saw a snap share of 50% or greater and produced three top-22 RB performances in fantasy football. Now that McCaffery is out for the year, the question is if Hubbard will resume that role. In Week 12, Ameer Abdullah out-snapped Hubbard 27-11 and received the passing down work that fantasy football managers yearn for.
The fantasy matchup against Atlanta is one of the better ones in the NFL. If either Hubbard or Abdullah receives the majority of the work, they will succeed. Unfortunately, I fear that neither player does, and both will cut into each other’s work. Therefore, I will pass on trusting the backfield in week 14 until I see how it shakes out.
Joe Mixon outscores Elijah Mitchell in Week 14 (PPR)
Joe: Fiction
It’s a battle of top-producing running backs (fingers crossed) in Cincinnati this week with Joe Mixon and Elijah Mitchell. I certainly didn’t expect to type that sentence this season, but here we are. Both Mixon and Mitchell have been sensational this year for fantasy football managers.
It’s never easy to go against the PPR RB3 on the season in Mixon at home, but give me Elijah Mitchell this week. Neither has a matchup to fear for the most part, although the 49ers have tightened things up in the last few weeks. San Francisco hasn’t allowed a feature running back to eclipse more than 39 rushing yards in four straight weeks.
Elijah Mitchell has flourished since San Francisco’s Week 6 bye. He’s averaging 22 touches and 111 total yards per game in the last six games.
This is Mitchell’s backfield now. Look for Elijah Mitchell to keep the ball rolling and outscore Joe Mixon in Week 14.
Jesse: Fact
I will take the Bengals starting running back over the 49ers starter this week. I use that terminology because both running backs are questionable for this matchup. It comes down to how the Bengals have made Mixon an integral part of this offense and turned me into a believer for this season. I faded Mixon and did not draft him on any one of my 22 fantasy football rosters.
I also trust Joe Burrow a heck of a lot more than I do Jimmy Garropolo. Watching Garropolo over the years as a Seahawks fan has shown me Jimmy G is not a franchise quarterback. If it does become a matchup running backs, give me the one attached to a considerably better quarterback. Lastly, the Bengals are a favorite and will likely see a positive game script in this game which is good news for the Bengals backfield.
