Fantasy Football: Can James Robinson be the overall RB1?

A quick reminder of who exactly is James Robinson. Undrafted. NFL.com rated him as a player with a ‘chance to make end of roster or practice squad’. Experts said he lacked acceleration and was fluid, but not fast. He began his career as a depth piece over the summer for the Jaguars in 2020. No one thought Robinson would ever be talked about by fantasy football managers.

New head coach Urban Meyer wasn’t as sold as the rest of us, and selected Travis Etienne in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. After a season-ending injury to Etienne in the preseason, the Jaguars backfield is once again Robinson’s to lose. Yet is there a chance he could finish 2021 as the RB1 overall in fantasy football?

2020 Reflection

Last year, a Jaguars team that was near the bottom of the league in almost every metric somehow produced one of the best RBs for fantasy football. Robinson had 240 rushes, 1070 rushing yards, and 7 touchdowns. He averaged 4.5 yards per rush attempt and averaged over 17 attempts each game. He was also a reliable pass-catching option. His 49 catches for an 81.7% catch rate, 344 yards, and 3 TDs showed he could be a dual-threat; crucial for fantasy football production at the running back position.

2021 Season Outlook

The biggest issue for Robinson in my mind is the team improving. I know that sounds oxymoronic, but they just drafted the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. If Trevor Lawrence is as good as everyone has been hyping him up to be (and so far it’s been a mixed bag), I expect the Jaguars to pass the ball more efficiently.

Not to mention the addition of Carlos Hyde to the running back room. Hyde is much needed depth to the team that had Dare Ogunbowale as their RB2 last year. There were multiple games last year where Robinson literally had every rushing attempt for the Jaguars. I do not see that happening this year.

The Jaguars have had a rough start to the season so far – as they have yet to win a game. For some reason, Urban Meyer has asked Trevor Lawrence to do much more than expected. Week 1 saw Carlos Hyde match Robinson’s touch total, and fantasy football managers were on full tilt. It didn’t get much better in Week 2, as Robinson still couldn’t surpass 10 fantasy points. Then the explosion came.

In Weeks 3-4, Robinson surpassed 20 fantasy points. He managed at least 75 yards and a touchdown in each game against opponents that aren’t necessarily known for giving up points to the running back position. With a soft midseason schedule (fantasy-wise), does Robinson have the potential to become the overall fantasy football RB1?

RB1 Overall Though?

I expect Robinson to have plenty of games where he produces as much as I’ve mentioned above. I would not be surprised if he has a game where he ends up as the RB1 on the week.

Could he be the RB1 in 2021? Yes, but realistically, I give it less than a 5% chance of happening. The Jaguars are currently a very bad team, and game script could limit his potential. Robinson would have to lead the team in rushing attempts and see a massive increase in the receiving game. Even then, he would have to outscore players like Kamara, like Cook, and players coming off of injuries like Christian McCaffery and Saquon Barkley. If I had to bet, James Robinson will not be the RB1 in 2021.