There is an old saying in fantasy football that championships are not won at the draft. This encapsulates a lot of things. For instance, your ability to effectively turn over your roster through trades and free agency moves. It also means being able to take each matchup, on a week-by-week basis, and scratch and claw your way to wins.
When you are drafting players at the beginning of the year, you are forced to take a high-level view of the player and his situation for the year as a whole. When making a start-sit decision on a weekly basis you have the luxury of being able to evaluate the player on a more micro level. You can evaluate based on the opponent they play and potential game script. While you still want to play great players regardless of matchup, evaluating these factors can give you an advantage over your opponent in head-to-head matchups, as well as give you a leg up when setting fantasy football DFS lineups.
Every week I will be selecting a handful of players to highlight that I believe have matchup or game script factors this week that either elevate or dampen their fantasy prospects. I will include a screenshot of my entire matchup grid for every team as a reference. The betting lines information is pulled from an average of major gambling institutions as listed at vegasinsider.com. The matchup rankings are pulled directly from JJ Zachariason’s weekly tweet listing schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed by position. You can find his tweets @LateRoundQB.
There are different ways to calculate adjusted fantasy points allowed. Others likely do it differently than I do. But here's where each team ranks as a matchup for QB/RB/WR/TE/DEF through 12 weeks. pic.twitter.com/fALHCnNCOG
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 30, 2021
For Week 13 I have selected nine players as seen below. I’m always eager to hear your opinions on my selections, or other players I should have included. Tweet at me at @zhaugenfootball, and my DM’s are always open.
Players with Favorable Matchups
Alexander Mattison
With Dalvin Cook out for at least two games, Alexander Mattison will step back into a workhorse role for the Vikings. He has scored over 20 fantasy points in each of the two games Cook has missed this year. Week 13 brings a juicy matchup against the Lions and their bottom five run-defense. The Vikings will also be seven points favorites entering the game, which should lead to plenty of volume for the young running back this week.
Antonio Gibson
Antonio Gibson is starting to show signs of life the last few weeks, as he is seeing elite volume. In Week 12 he had 29 carries and 7 receptions, which were both career highs. There is plenty of optimism that the hot streak continues this week, as Gibson faces a run funnel defense in the Las Vegas Raiders. Washington is not favored in the game, but according to the over/under set for the game, there should be plenty of offense to go around.
Logan Thomas
Logan Thomas returned from injury in Week 12. He didn’t put up overly exciting numbers but was a judgment call away from a touchdown, and he had a healthy 6 targets. Week 13 brings a promising fantasy football matchup against the Raiders. They have funneled the passing game to tight ends all year. They rank as a top-five matchup for tight ends despite being the 24th best matchup for receivers. In the always difficult to navigate the tight-end landscape, Thomas feels like a locked-in option this week.
Derek Carr
Derek Carr always seems to fly under the radar. Perhaps it’s because he hasn’t had that huge 3-4 touchdown game yet this year. But the yardage, efficiency, and consistency have all been there. He is coming off a 373-yard passing game last week against a good Cowboys defense. In Week 13 Carr will face the Washington Football Team, who ranks as the top matchup for quarterbacks in fantasy football. The Raiders have a healthy 26 points implied total as small favorites in one of the highest over/unders of the week.
George Kittle
George Kittle is coming off a very disappointing game against Minnesota in Week 12, where he had one catch on two targets. Before that, however, he was coming off three straight strong games for fantasy football purposes. He is in a prime spot for a bounce-back in Week 13. The Seahawks defense has been vulnerable in two areas: the running game and against tight ends. The Seahawks have not allowed a lot of fantasy points to receivers this year, but rank as a top-5 matchup for tight ends. Combine this with the 49ers missing their top receiver in Deebo Samuel, and Kittle should be in high demand for Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday
Players with Unfavorable Matchups
Elijah Moore
Elijah Moore has proven with a myriad of quarterbacks that he has the talent to be a fixture in an NFL offense. Zach Wilson has unfortunately been the one quarterback that hasn’t built that connection with Moore yet. It was promising to see Moore earn targets on 8 of Wilson’s 24 pass attempts in Week 12. While this gives me hope long-term for the rookie connection, I have some trepidation for this week. The Jets will be hosting the Philadelphia Eagles who have been one of the toughest matchups for fantasy receivers all year. Regardless of the volume Moore sees, I don’t trust the Jet’s passing game to be competent against this Eagle’s defense.
Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins is one of my favorite players in the NFL. I have loved seeing target and touchdown regression hit the young receiver in a positive way. I’m a believer in Higgin’s long-term success, but I don’t love the fantasy football matchup in Week 13 against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have spent the whole year shutting down opposing passing attacks while allowing running backs to run all over them. The Bengals over the last month have also become an extremely run-heavy team with Joe Mixon. This game seems set up for low volume for this Bengals passing offense.
Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley has been bad this year. His season-high in rushing yardage is 57 yards. He also hasn’t had a touchdown since early October, partially due to injury. The trend in usage is positive however, as Barkley dominated the running back touches in Week 12. He has 11 targets over the last two weeks. I could see a strong finish coming for Saquon if things start to click. I’m basically out for this week though. The Giants face a hot Dolphins defense that is especially effective against the run. On top of that, Daniel Jones will be out, leaving the offense in the hands of Mike Glennon. I’m avoiding this whole Giants offense for fantasy football in Week 13.
Brandon Aiyuk
I had Brandon Aiyuk in the positive column of this article last week with a juicy matchup against the Vikings. He put up a solid game with 95 yards from scrimmage. I’m not as bullish this week. Hype will be high this week for Aiyuk with Deebo Samuel missing the game. The reality though, is that Deebo was more involved in the running game than the passing game lately anyways. The 49er’s Week 13 opponent, the Seahawks, have been a sieve for the running game and tight ends. This has come at the expense of wide receivers. I’m not saying you need to sit Aiyuk this week, but my expectations for him are lower than consensus.
