Fantasy Football Redraft: Best and Worst Values, NFC East Edition

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Fantasy Football - Saquon Barkley

This week we head to the NFC East, a division that was a disaster last year (You can check the previous article in this series discussing the AFC South here). Washington came out the victor with a losing record. So will this season be more of the same or trend down a different path? With the talent in the division, it should be a fun one to watch each week. With how close the teams are, you can make a case for any four to win the division (Yes, even Philadelphia). While Dallas and Washington seem to be the preferred choices, both teams have enough question marks where either New York or Philadelphia could make a surprise push for the division title. Let’s dive into the best and worst fantasy football values on each team.

Dallas Projected Win Total O/U 9 Wins

How ’bout them, Cowboys? Dallas has serious firepower on the offensive side of the ball this year. Last year the team crumbled after the Dak Prescott injury. Add in the injury issues along the o-line, and it only added to the misery for this team and fans. In addition, the defensive faults became evident with the lack of talent on the offensive side. Now, in 2021 we wonder if the offense can shoulder the expectations placed on this team as division favorites?

Good: Michael Gallup WR36 ADP 73.6

People are struggling with the repercussions of the Michael Gallup WR1 tweets from last season. Go look them up, as there are plenty of receipts. Last year, Gallup had 100+ targets and 800+ yards on a 17% Target Share, yet is viewed as an afterthought for the 2021 season. With the coaches planning to use all three wide receivers all over the formation this year, it will help increase Gallup’s efficiency in the offense.

With Cooper still dealing with complications from his offseason ankle surgery, Gallup has the chance to flourish early and often in 2021. I will happily select the cheapest of the big three receivers in Dallas, as we are unsure how the targets will play out this season. I prefer the sixth-round player as opposed to the injured player going in the third round. The value you gain picking Gallup is how you win your leagues.

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Bad: Amari Cooper WR13 ADP 32.0

I have always thought Amari Cooper was underrated in fantasy football, as I wrote about him being a buy earlier this offseason. However, with the latest injury news on Amari, I am fading at his current price for 2021. The cost is too steep for me to be comfortable with his price. Going in the middle of that group of players that includes Mclaurin, Robinson, Woods, Jones in ADP means you need Amari to hit the ceiling to payoff.

With Amari still hampered in camp, we genuinely do not know when he will be back to 100%. However, he will likely play through the issue this year, which gives me cause for concern. Playing at less than 100% only increases the chance of an injury reoccurring during the season.

Washington Projected Win Total O/U 8.5 Wins

Is this the year for the football team in Washington? With the defense ready to contend for championships, and multiple upgrades to the offense, the Football Team looks the part of an upper-echelon group. You can make a legitimate claim for them to be the favorite in the division this year. The question is, which version of Fitzpatrick will be running the show this season. If Fitzpatrick is on his game, I expect WFT to win the division. If he is to falter, them to fall short of the postseason.

Good: Curtis Samuel WR42 ADP 85.3

Curtis Samuel is coming off of a career year in Carolina and reuniting with Ron Rivera in Washington. Samuel thrived in the slot last year, lining up there over 53% of the time, which is something WFT desperately needs. WFT relied heavily on Logan Thomas and J.D. Mckissic to fill the void at wide receiver. The two combined to spend 549 snaps out of the slot. Which meant 54% of the time, one of them lined up in the slot.

Samuel found a perfect role for himself in Washington. F1 and Dyami on the outside will allow Samuel to dominate underneath and in the middle of the field. Samuel is a lock to finish better than his ADP of WR42. Invest with confidence in Samuel at that price.

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Bad: Logan Thomas TE10 108.4

With Samuel coming in to help fill the void at wide receiver, someone has to take a hit if this offense. That player for me is Logan Thomas. Thomas led tight ends in slot snaps, routes ran, route participation, and snap share in 2020. He was relied upon heavily last year due to the lack of talent in the receiving game. Those numbers will not be repeatable for Thomas in 2021 due to the additions of Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown in the passing attack. Thomas is the one who suffers the biggest hit to production this year. Grab Evan Engram, Adam Trautman, or Jonnu Smith later in the draft instead of Thomas at cost.

New York Projected Win Total O/U 7 Wins

New York is such a strange team to me. The range of outcomes for the Giants this year is all over the place. They could surprise and win the division or struggle and finish in last place. The Giants season depends on how Danny Dimes will perform this year. It seems to be a make-or-break season for the third-year pro. If Jones succeeds, he solidifies his and the Giants’ future. If he fails, New York will look for his replacement going into the 2022 season.

Good: Saquon Barkley RB7 ADP 11.8

It does seem that we as a fantasy football community have forgotten just how good Saquon Barkley is at the running back position. Search across the planet, and you will not find a more talented running back than Saquon Barkley. Barkley has never been cheaper than he’s currently going. Even as a rookie, Barkley was going inside the top five running backs selected.

The discount on Barkley is due to his injury history. Without that, Barkley would be a consensus top-three back in fantasy football. Additionally, the Giants do not have a target hog on offense, meaning that there is room for Saquon to step in this year and immediately resume his heavy involvement in the passing game.

Fade Saquon Barkley at your own risk. Saquon is back with a vengeance in 2021 to remind fantasy players just how great he is. Invest with confidence in Barkley in all formats.

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Bad: Kenny Golladay WR30 ADP 62.3

On the flip side, Kenny Golladay is someone I am fading this year. I have heard throughout the offseason how Golladay can be the 2021 version of Stefon Diggs, and it is flat-out ludicrous to suggest that. They are entirely different players who win in different ways. Moreover, Golladay has never been a target magnet in Detroit with minimal competition. So how is Golladay expected to become this elite alpha with more genuine talent around him in New York?

I see why people jump to the conclusion of comparing Golladay to Diggs, as it takes a unique set of circumstances for a wide receiver to do what Stefon Diggs did last year. For instance, the Bills had minimal involvement from the tight end and running back positions in the passing game. Those are the biggest strengths in the Giants passing attack, and the receiving core has Shepard, Slayton, and selected Kadarius Toney in the first round of the NFL draft. So there is no world where Golladay makes that jump barring an injury to his teammates.

Add in a quarterback playing for his job due to inconsistencies, and it’s a situation I would avoid if possible. Golladay is a WR3 who will have the occasional WR2 spike week. We have no idea when those weeks will happen. I’m looking for a wide receiver in that ADP range, providing more upside than Golladay offers.

Philadelphia Projected Win Total O/U 6.5 Wins

Philadelphia is a very intriguing team on the offensive side of the ball. Last year could not have gone any worse, as Wentz was horrific behind an oft-injured line in 2020 that graded out better than most expected. However, with Hurts now taking over, it is a fresh start for Philadelphia, as the Eagles look to play to the strengths of its players. Particularly the quarterback. While the team is in turmoil, it will be better than most expect this year. The Eagles are too talented of a group to finish a distant fourth in the division.

Good: Miles Sanders RB19 ADP 45.5

After one injury-plagued season, Miles Sanders has fallen precipitously in the minds of many fantasy football players. I’m here to say you should have zero concerns about selecting Sanders at his price. Sanders has the entire package we are looking for when finding breakout running backs. With the disaster 2020, we appeared to have been one year too early on that prediction.

This year, Sanders is going at a much more reasonable price. Currently he is a mid to late RB2, compared to last year where Sanders was going as a top-10 running back. Sanders will not be a bell cow, but Jalen Hurts will increase his efficiency where he does not have to rely on elite volume to be fantasy relevant.

Lastly, the line is returning the veterans it relied on as one of the best in football. Those veterans stay healthy, and Sanders will eat early and often behind them. Select Sanders with confidence at his current price.

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Bad: Dallas Goedert TE7 ADP 93.4

Must we repeat this song and dance? Another offseason and the fantasy football community have propped up Dallas Goedert to a place where the expectations are unrealistic. Fantasy managers view Goedert as if Zach Ertz is no longer on the Eagles. The problem is that Ertz is still a part of the Eagles’ plans, and he caps Goedert’s ceiling in fantasy football. That price tag is something Goedert will not be able to match this year.

The Eagles went out and selected Devonta Smith in the first round of the draft. When a team adds in a first-round talent, the team wants to utilize that investment heavily. No matter what you think of Smith, adding a first-round pick is never a good sign for a player looking to increase his targets. The Eagles believe they have found the answer on the outside to pair with Reagor, Goedert, and Ertz.

Add in a quarterback coming off of an inaccurate season, and it makes you wonder how good Goedert will be this year? Goedert is a floor play, not a ceiling play at the tight end position this year. The lack of quality options at the tight end position pushes Goedert inside the top 100 picks. You are better off selecting a player at a different position with a similar ADP.

Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.

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