What a difference a year makes in fantasy football. This time last year, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the consensus 1.01 in rookie drafts and viewed as a top-5 dynasty back before even stepping onto an NFL field. Fast forward to 2021, and the entire landscape seems to have changed. Using DLF Start-Up ADP from September 2020 to now, follow along as we look at how the landscape has changed for some of the most impactful rookie running backs from a season ago. This is Part 2, you can view Part 1 here.
AJ Dillon
Then: RB39 Now: RB33
One of the few “top” backs from this class that would not be coming into the league with the chance at being the starter, AJ Dillon was drafted in the 2nd round to Green Bay out of Boston College. Dillon wasn’t expected to be a Day 2 pick, but after an impressive combine Dillon shot up draft boards. He finished his career at BC with 4,618 scrimmage yards and 40 TDs. Dillon wasn’t much of a pass-catcher but his rushing ability was evident, and he landed in a perfect situation for a raw, rookie back.
Going into his rookie season, Dillon was firmly behind Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams on the depth chart. That notion held throughout the season as Dillon never saw more than six touches in a single game outside of his Week 16 explosion (21 carries for 124 yards and two TDs). Now, part of this is somewhat of a trend. We saw nearly all offensive skill rookies struggle to start the year as COVID wrecked essentially any offseason and preseason training.
Dillon missed Weeks 9-13 while being on the COVID list, and saw only one touch combined in Weeks 14 and 15. Once Williams returned to the lineup in Week 17, Dillon was relegated as the 3rd option in the backfield, seeing only 11 touches from Week 17 through the NFC Championship loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Dillon ended the year with 46 attempts for 242 yards, and two TDs while hauling in two targets for 21 yards. Nobody expected much considering where he was in the pecking order, but that Week 16 performance left a lot of people wondering if Green Bay could live without Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams; who were both impending free agents following 2020 season.
Dillon had a moment of sincere fantasy football relevance, as many managers weren’t sure what the Packers would do in the offseason. Would Aaron Rodgers return? Would Aaron Jones be brought back? What about Jamaal Williams?
This led to a lot of early drafters hedging on Dillon, trying to get ahead of the curve. On March 14th that all changed as the Packers signed Aaron Jones to a massive 4-year, $48 Million contract extension, essentially ending any hopes of Dillon taking the reins. There was some hope injected into Dillon’s fantasy football outlook, however, as the Detroit Lions signed Jamaal Williams just three days later. Then the Packers selected Kylin Hill in the 7th round of the NFL Draft, putting another young and talented back into the RB room. Hill has impressed the coaching staff in his ability and daily improvement during the offseason.
As past years have shown, the RB3 in the Packers offense offers next to nothing of fantasy value. It will be interesting to see who becomes the consistent spell-back for Aaron Jones. That back has historically been at least FLEX worthy, as Aaron Jones hasn’t seen more than 15 carries a game for a season since entering the league. This is a situation worth monitoring throughout the year.
Zack Moss
Then: RB31 Now: RB38
The Buffalo Bills drafted Zack Moss in the 3rd round out of Utah. Moss had a productive college career (when he was able to stay healthy), rushing for over 4000 yards and 38 TDs while being a weapon in the passing game as well. Being selected to the Bills made Moss a name to watch entering his first season. He was expected to share the workload with Devin Singletary, taking over the role left by Frank Gore.
Moss had a modest start to his career, turning 20 touches into 64 yards and a TD, but was subsequently sidelined due to a toe injury and missed the next three games. Upon his return, Moss showed flashes of what we saw at Utah. Unfortunately, he was unable to fully capture the lead role or become a dominant presence in the Bills’ backfield; as they leaned heavily on the arm of Josh Allen.
Moss would finish Weeks 6-17 with 95 rushes, 433 yards, and four TDs with 11 receptions on 14 targets for 79 yards. In the playoffs, Moss was injured with a high ankle sprain that would require surgery. He would finish the year as the RB43 (Standard) and RB46 (PPR) for fantasy football purposes.
Now fully healthy, Moss is considered a sleeper in fantasy football circles. Unless we see a shift in philosophy for the Bills, I can’t see Moss being a “sleeper” or a “breakout” player outperforming his current ADP without an injury to Singletary.
Although Moss is built for goal line work, Josh Allen has been that guy for Buffalo the past few seasons. After going 13-3 last season and making it to the AFC Championship game, not much should change. With an injury history and competition with Singletary and Breida, I don’t anticipate a great season.
Antonio Gibson
Then: RB27 Now: RB9
One of the more fascinating stories of the 2020 NFL Draft from a fantasy football perspective, Antonio Gibson was drafted in the 3rd round by the Washington Football Team out of Memphis. Originally a receiver (38 catches, 735 yards, and 8TDs) in ’19, Gibson began seeing opportunities at running back. He ended the regular season with 33 carries for 369 yards and four TDs.
Gibson received an invite to the Senior Bowl, taking 11 carries for 68 yards, averaging more than six yards per carry. His two seasons at Memphis showed everyone a glimpse of what was possible at the NFL level. Gibson averaged 11.2 yards per carry and broke 16 tackles on his 33 attempts. He also broke another 17 tackles off his 44 career catches according to PFF. That is 33 broken tackles on 77 touches in his two collegiate seasons at Memphis.
At the NFL Combine, Gibson ran a 4.39 40- yard dash, placing in the 99th percentile. Gibson was drafted to a running back room consisting of Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber, Bryce Love, and Derrius Guice but was still considered an option at running back due to his versatility.
Prior to the start of his rookie season, Gibson was suddenly thrust into a more prominent role. Guice had legal troubles and was cut, Bryce Love was put on IR, and Adrian Peterson was surprisingly cut. Week 1 came and saw Peyton Barber handle 17 of the 29 running back carries. But after that, it was Gibson’s backfield.
From Weeks 2-12, Gibson recorded 132 carries for 623 yards and 11TDs while hauling in 30 of 37 targets for 225 yards. Gibson would miss the next two games due to a turf toe injury (that has hindered him into the 2021 offseason and required surgery).
Once returning to the lineup in Week 16, Gibson was given his usual workload. Including the playoffs, Gibson had 43 rushes for 167 yards and caught six passes for 40 yards. By the end of the year, Gibson would finish as the fantasy football RB13 in PPR, and RB14 in Standard scoring.
Entering his sophomore season, the fantasy football community is expecting big things from the Washington back. Currently going as the RB9 according to DLF, I am in the camp that believes Gibson can finish as a top-5 running back this season and going forward.
James Robinson
Then: RB65 Now: RB30
The darling of the waiver wire last season, James Robinson went undrafted from Illinois State University after having 5,218 all-purpose yards and 46 Total TDs. Robinson signed to Jacksonville, a team that had former LSU stud Leonard Fournette and second-year back Ryquell Armstead as the top two backs. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Robinson’s name sat atop of the depth chart. Fournette was released after not being able to complete a trade, and Armstead was placed on the COVID-19 list.
Robinson then quite literally ran away with the job. In 14 games Robinson had 240 rushes, 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns with 60 targets, 49 catches for 344 yards and three TDs. No other RB saw more than two carries in the 14 games that Robinson was active. Robinson averaged 17 carries a game while also receiving more than four targets per game.
Robinson finished as the fantasy football RB7, and it seemed that Jacksonville found a new workhorse back. But after ending the season 1-15, coach Doug Marrone was relieved of coaching duties. Robinson’s future for fantasy football suddenly became cloudy due to his lack of draft capital and a new regime.
With the new regime in town, most began expecting the Jaguars would address their RB room in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jaguars proved those people right, taking Travis Etienne out of Clemson with the 25th overall pick, while also adding veteran Carlos Hyde.
Robinson’s fantasy football value immediately took a hit. Although Robinson was likely to lead the team in carries, Etienne was expected to take a large share of the receiving work. But the fantasy football gods had other plans. Travis Etienne would suffer a Lisfranc injury, ending his rookie season before it even began. The injury made Robinson’s stock increase, as he likely leads the team in overall touches again this season.
With the Jaguars’ willingness to move on from Robinson as their workhorse, my dynasty outlook is not as fruitful as his redraft value. Etienne should return and be ready to go in time for training camp next year, and the Jags could even add another back next year.
If you are a contending team in dynasty, hold him until the end of the season to look for a trade. In a rebuild, try to sell him to a contender for the best offer you can receive.
