Every season, a couple NFL teams play the role of black holes in fantasy football. Talented and efficient players get sucked in past the event horizon, and are never heard from again. These teams distort time around them, with whole seasons flying by without any impact on the greater fantasy football landscape. Absolutely nothing, not even fantasy production, can escape their gravitational pull.
I think it’s time for this metaphor to end but hey, maybe this astrophysics degree wasn’t such a waste after all.
If you’re (rightfully) confused, I’m talking about teams that fail to produce players of fantasy football value. Maybe they’re a solid squad but have too many mouths to feed, and become too inconsistent. Maybe they’re held back by poor quarterbacks and offensive lines, making it harder for skill positions to thrive. Or maybe they’re just the Jets. Regardless, picking players from these teams usually spells disappointment.
That’s not to say I don’t expect some of these teams to succeed. In case you haven’t noticed, there’s a bit of a disconnect between fantasy football and the real NFL.
Fantasy success is positively correlated with team success, but players can still put up respectable numbers while a franchise falls apart around them. The inverse is also true. Real Super Bowl contenders can occasionally give us absolutely no one of fantasy interest. This is not a list of teams I expect to fail in the coming season, but ones I don’t think will produce many worthwhile fantasy starters.
In no particular order, here are the teams I’m looking to stay away from in 2021.
Teams I Want (Almost) Nothing To Do With
1.) New England Patriots (Damien Harris)
Honestly, the Patriots were the first team that came to mind when I was putting this list together. They were awful for fantasy football last year, placing 27th in total points scored. Cam Newton came in 28th in quarterback rating and 21st in yards per pass attempt. He did gain a respectable 592 yards rushing, but it wasn’t enough to bring the team back to relevance. There’s a chance Newton improves going into his second year with the Patriots, but I don’t think he’ll ever be anywhere near his 2015 MVP form.
In part because of the poor quarterback play, the Patriots’ skill positions were similarly disappointing. Their best receiver was Jakobi Meyers, who flashed potential at times but ended the year as the WR59. Their running back room was crowded and impossible to predict, with Damien Harris, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, and James White all seeing significant opportunities. Those backs came in as the RB44, RB48, RB56, and RB57 last year, respectively.
It’s impossible to ignore the Patriots’ free agency spending spree, bringing in 14 players to strengthen both their offense and their defense; and I do think it will make them a better team. But with more players comes more mouths to feed, and I expect the Patriots to be absolutely infuriating for fantasy managers this year.
The Patriots added receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne as well as tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, splitting the already poor receiving opportunities an additional four ways. I think all of these players are legitimately talented, but the odds that any of them have consistent fantasy production are very low. None of them are more than a desperation pick in 2021.
The “almost” part of this team comes in the form of third-year running back Damien Harris. Harris was impressive last season despite not seeing a full workload, ending up tied for 9th in yards per rush and 11th in yards per game.
Harris was also PFF’s highest-graded running back of the entire 2020 season. If the Patriots decide to give him more opportunities (however unlikely that is), I think he could be a breakout star in 2021. At the very, least I think Harris is a steal if he falls to the 9th or 10th rounds of your fantasy draft.
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2.) New York Jets (Corey Davis)
The next team I’m looking to avoid is, of course, the Jets. I’m sorry Jets fans. I want your team to be good and I really do think they’re on the right track, but I want nothing to do with them this year. While the Patriots have too many players to produce fantasy stars, the Jets don’t have anyone capable of carrying an offense.
After trading away Sam Darnold, it’s very likely the Jets take BYU’s Zach Wilson with the 2nd overall pick. It remains to be seen if he’s an upgrade over Darnold, but I try to avoid rookie quarterbacks unless they have a solid roster built around them. The Jets do not.
The Jets scored the fewest points and gained the fewest yards of any offense in 2020. They had the 7th worst scoring defense. Their leading rusher, the ageless wonder Frank Gore, ended the year as the RB46. Their leading receiver, Jamison Crowder, was the WR38.
The Jets still have a terrible offensive line, poor running backs, and a shallow roster overall. I know we say this every time the Jets draft a quarterback, but Zach Wilson is going to have his work cut out for him.
One Jets player I’m interested in this year would be Corey Davis. Davis flashed serious potential in his time with the Titans, coming in 7th in yards per target last year and finishing as the WR29. Only two receivers that finished above him saw fewer targets, and going from a run-heavy Titans offense to the presumably pass-heavy Jets could mean great things. I think that if Zach Wilson is successful, Davis and Crowder could form a potent receiving duo. If not, this whole team could be unusable.
Fun fact: the Jets and the Giants were the only teams that scored less than 300 points and gained less than 5000 yards last year. The Bills are officially the only thing holding New York back from football oblivion.
3.) Detroit Lions (T.J. Hockenson)
Ah yes, the Lions: Jets of the NFC. Not a bad comparison, as both franchises seem to be stuck in an endless rebuild; but I do think the Lions have a stronger roster going into 2021. D’Andre Swift flashed some serious potential last season and Jared Goff is an adequate quarterback. But for fantasy football, I am extremely worried about this team.
I don’t think anyone would disagree when I say Jared Goff is a massive downgrade from Matthew Stafford. The Lions’ and Rams’ offenses were similar in 2020, both middle of the pack in yards per play (5.7 to 5.5), 1st downs (350 to 352), and total points scored (377 to 372). But Goff finished 23rd in quarterback rating compared to Stafford at 14th, despite having a much better offensive line and overall roster.
Their defenses are not comparable. The Lions finished dead last for both points and yards allowed in 2020 while the Rams hold claim to the best defense in the league. This likely means Goff will have to throw much more next season, but who will he be throwing to?
Now that Kenny Golladay is gone, the Lions are left with Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, and Quintez Cephus to pick up the slack. I think it’s safe to say that I don’t feel confident with any of those players. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions grab a promising wide receiver with the 7th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, but even with that addition their receiving corps is very shallow.
One option for Goff would be 2nd-round running back D’Andre Swift, who I’ve already discussed in this article. To summarize, I’m a bit hesitant based on the assumption that he won’t get the rushing opportunities a workhorse fantasy running back requires; plus the addition of Jamaal Williams really cuts into his projected receiving work. I think he’ll be fine for the Lions’ offense, but I would not be confident with him as my RB1.
As for the “almost” part of this team, I am very optimistic about tight end T.J. Hockenson. He finished as the TE5 last year on 101 targets, and since Goff will most likely have no other reliable or established receivers in 2021, I expect his opportunities to skyrocket.
Even in a crowded Rams offense, Goff loved throwing to his tight ends. Last season, he supported both Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett as they ended up the TE16 and TE26, respectively, with a total of 122 targets. If you theoretically combined Higbee and Everett into one player, he would have ended the year as the TE3. I think Hockenson could very easily end 2021 as the TE3 or above, and is a fantastic option if you miss out on Travis Kelce or George Kittle.
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4.) Pittsburgh Steelers (Defense)
Oh yeah, now we’re getting into the controversial picks. I want to preface this by saying I do think the Steelers will succeed as a team this season, but once again, that’s not what this list is about. There are very few Steelers players I would be happy with on my fantasy roster in 2021.
Let’s start with their quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger. It was widely rumored that Roethlisberger would hang up his cleats after the 2020 season, but he’s back around for another year and I don’t want anyone he’s throwing to. Roethlisberger ended the year as the QB14, which I think is a bit deceiving.
He was 19th in quarterback rating, 29th in yards per attempt, and 33rd in yards per completion. The Steelers threw more than any other team last year, largely due to their completely inept rushing game, but still came in 24th in total yards gained and 26th in yards per play. Big Ben put up big numbers, but was extremely inefficient. I don’t trust him at all, especially in what is arguably the best defensive division in the NFL.
As far as receiving corps go, Pittsburgh has a wealth of talent. Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Diontae Johnson form a solid 3-man set, ending the year as the WR14, WR22, and WR26, respectively. I do think one of them could break the top 20 again next year, but do you really want to play that guessing game?
The Steelers defense is fantastic and carried them to their 11-0 start; they don’t need to throw nearly as much as they did. Expect the Steelers to get back to the rushing game in 2021. They have a great offensive line and I wouldn’t be surprised if they invest in a rookie running back in the draft.
The one Steelers player I would want on my fantasy football roster isn’t a player, it’s their defense. They’ve been the #2 D/ST two years in a row now, and I think they’ll dominate again next season. If you aren’t satisfied with that exception, I would also be happy with whoever ends up leading their backfield. Whether that’s a rookie like Travis Etienne, or Benny Snell Jr. if Pittsburgh decides to address other needs in the draft, I think the Steelers will produce a solid fantasy running back in 2021.
5.) Houston Texans (Brandin Cooks)
The final team on my do-not-touch list is one close to my heart. I’ve been a Texans fan going on 4 years now, but I’m confidently staying away from this toxic franchise. I do want to note that I’m assuming Deshaun Watson will not be playing football next year, so if that somehow changes then I might take another look at this team. For the purpose of this article the Texans’ 2021 quarterback is Tyrod Taylor.
It goes without saying that Taylor is a step down from Watson. Watson led the league in passing yards last year, but I do think Taylor will find success in Houston. I expect the Texans to be pass heavy next year to compensate for their horrendous defense: 6th most points and 3rd most yards allowed in 2020.
Since the Texans have no picks until the 3rd round of the draft to address their many needs, it stands to reason the defense will not improve going into this season. Taylor has never really been given a fair chance, but the Texans have a decent offensive line. He should have plenty of opportunities to show what he’s got in a division mostly devoid of good defense. I wouldn’t want him as my QB1, but I’m not too pessimistic about his outlook either.
As far as running backs go, the Texans added both Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram to their backfield this offseason. I doubt Ingram has much of an impact, but Lindsay should end up taking a significant amount of opportunities away from starter David Johnson, who was the RB19 last year.
I see this becoming a two-headed monster of a backfield, and doubt either one will have solid fantasy football production, barring an injury. Even if one of them dominates the backfield, I’m always nervous about taking a running back on a team with an awful defense.
My exception for this team is wide receiver Brandin Cooks. He finished as the WR16 last year on 119 targets, and should see his target share increase with the departure of Will Fuller (75 targets). His only other competition is now Randall Cobb, an aging receiver who took the WR79 spot last year. I expect the Texans to throw a lot in 2021, and I think Cooks will be a solid fantasy football starter regardless of his team’s success.
How do you feel about Jaamaal Williams in general? I was gonna draft him but I might be getting cold feet. I’m frozen with indecision please help.
Sorry for the delayed reply. If he’s in a later round of your draft, it definitely wouldn’t hurt to take a flyer on him. If you’re expecting him to put up RB2 or high FLEX numbers up though you may be disappointed.