Fantasy Football: 2021 Draft Landmines

I want you to picture a typical fantasy football league in week 13. Playoffs are right around the corner, and you’re sitting in one of three positions. Let’s call them teams A, B, and C.

Maybe you’re team A: Already locked up a playoff spot and looking forward to the first round; sights set squarely on that first place trophy.

Maybe you’re team B: Still fighting for the right to play. You’re sitting at 6-6 on the year and needing a win this week to have a chance at the big dance.

Or maybe you’re team C: Eliminated from contention. You stopped caring a couple weeks back, already considering skipping out on your league and avoiding all this pain come next year.

Teams A and B are obviously the exciting ones, the only ones most people care about. They’re always thoroughly examined as managers try to figure out the secret to fantasy success. How is this team so good? What did they do?

I think it’s all about what they didn’t do. Sure, you can get to the playoffs with some smart trades or quick free agent pickups. Though for the most part, you just drafted well. While that does mean grabbing players that end up exceeding expectations, draft success revolves around not wasting your all-important first three picks. Almost every time I take a look at one of those ‘team C’s’, that’s exactly what they did; putting themselves at an immediate disadvantage for the entire season.

Obviously you can get unlucky with injuries (RIP 2020 McCaffrey and Barkley managers), but that’s not what I want to talk about. I’m more interested in the teams that overreach to take the “best” player available and end up stepping on a draft landmine. If you picked up guys like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mark Ingram, or D.J. Chark last year, I’m looking at you.

I’m here today to discuss the potential landmines you might find in the first couple rounds of your fantasy football draft, and why you should avoid them. Let’s take a look at some early picks this year that just might blow up in your face.

Fantasy Football 2021 Draft Landmines

1.) D.K. Metcalf | Seattle Seahawks

Listen, D.K. Metcalf is an absolute freak of nature and one of the most talented WRs in football right now. It pains me to put him on this list. But the situation surrounding him might just ruin his fantasy value going into 2021. If you’re unfamiliar with the Seahawks’ 2020 season, they had a dominant offense for the first half of the year and then suddenly fell off a cliff.

This was largely due to the surprising decline of Russell Wilson, as Metcalf was just the WR37 over his last 8 games. To illustrate how incredible they were in the first eight games, he still managed to grab the overall WR7 spot last year.

Looking at 2021, Metcalf certainly has WR7 potential (especially if Wilson returns to MVP form), but I’m not very optimistic. The Seahawks have publicly stated they want to run the ball more in 2021 and fired their offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer due to “philosophical differences”.

Their offensive line is still terrible, allowing the third most sacks in the league last year. And it’s no secret that Wilson isn’t happy with the organization, publicly listing teams he would approve being traded to earlier this offseason. Because of all this, I’d pass on Metcalf in 2021 in favor of someone more stable, like A.J. Brown or Calvin Ridley.

2.) D’Andre Swift | Detroit Lions

D’Andre Swift was one of the most impressive rookie RBs last season, ending the year as the RB18. He saw the 13th most targets of any RB while sharing touches with Adrian Peterson (who I expect to move on or be phased out in 2021), and the Lions had a solid offense overall. I was very excited to see what he could do next year. And then free agency had to go ahead and ruin everything.

Most importantly, the Lions swapped Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff. Listen, I went to Cal, I love Jared Goff; but this is a massive downgrade for the offense. Then, the Lions lost Kenny Golladay to the Giants; arguably their next best offensive player. 36% of Swift’s fantasy points came from touchdowns last year, and I seriously doubt he will be put in positions to repeat that efficiency in 2021 without those two on the team.

Largely due to having the worst defense in the league, the Lions were 30th in rushing attempts last season. The only optimism I had left for Swift revolved around his projected receiving work, and then the Lions had to go ahead and sign a notable receiving RB in Jamaal Williams. With a terrible defense, most likely sub-par offense, and competition for receiving work, I’d avoid this landmine in 2021.

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3.) Joe Mixon | Cincinnati Bengals

Why Joe Mixon is consistently projected to go in the 2nd-round of fantasy football drafts every single year, I will never understand. My friends tried to warn me last year, and I still wasted a 2nd-round pick on him. Don’t do it. Just don’t do it. I don’t care how talented he is, I don’t care that he was the 9th best RB back in 2018; he is not in a good situation.

The Bengals have a terrible defense, a QB coming off of a horrific injury, and are stuck playing against some of the best defenses in the league. I might take a chance on Mixon if he falls significantly in the draft, but not while better options like Antonio Gibson or J.K. Dobbins are available.

4.) James Robinson | Jacksonville Jaguars

It really hurts me to say this, but there’s no way I’m taking James Robinson before the late 3rd-round this year. He came out of nowhere and grabbed the RB7 spot in 2020, winning a lot of fantasy football managers championships along the way. But he was fantastic last year because he had absolutely no one to share the workload with.

Robinson was 6th overall in rushing attempts, but wasn’t necessarily special when it came to yards per rush or touchdown efficiency. The Jaguars added Carlos Hyde this offseason, who was great with the Texans two years ago and solid with the Seahawks last year; and will surely take away a chunk of Robinson’s opportunities. On top of that, the Jaguars have a terrible defense and will most likely want to test out Trevor Lawrence’s passing abilities, so I would really temper expectations for Robinson’s 2021 campaign.

5.) Josh Jacobs | Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs was great, if a little inconsistent, in 2020. He finished as the RB8 on the season, with the 4th most touchdowns and 8th most yards of all RBs. But there’s nothing quite like sharing the workload to completely ruin a RB’s fantasy football outlook.

The Raiders did just that this offseason, signing Kenyan Drake to a two-year contract. Drake was good on his own last year as well, ending as the RB14 overall. Put two great fantasy backs together, and you just ruin both of them. At best I expect Drake to take away most of Jacobs’ passing down work, and at worst they could render each other completely unusable in fantasy. If you’re desperate for an RB in the 3rd-round of this year’s draft, I think you’d be a lot safer going with someone like Chris Carson or Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

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6.) Julio Jones | Atlanta Falcons

Every year I’m nervous about picking Julio Jones, and it seems like that’s starting to be the correct evaluation. Jones didn’t even crack the top 50 WRs last season, and has had injury troubles multiple years in a row. Matt Ryan is a respectable, middle-of-the-pack QB, but he’s not good enough to support two superstar WRs. The arrival of Calvin Ridley might be signaling the end of Jones’ relevance.

I really do hope I’m wrong here, because I love Jones, but it’s not realistic to take him before the 4th-round of this year’s draft. If you pick Jones before someone like Terry McLaurin or Chris Godwin, I think you’re making a huge mistake.

Honorable Mentions

David Montgomery | Chicago Bears

Yes, Montgomery absolutely exploded near the end of last year. But that was against terrible defenses, and without backup RB Tarik Cohen around to take any of the work away. I don’t have high hopes for this 2021 Bears team, and will most likely pass on Montgomery.

D.J. Moore | Carolina Panthers

I’ve never quite been able to understand D.J. Moore. He’s occasionally great, but also occasionally terrible. Assuming Christian McCaffrey is back at full health for 2021, I don’t think there will be enough opportunities for both Robby Anderson and Moore to succeed, and I don’t feel like taking the chance on either.

Adam Thielen | Minnesota Vikings

Thielen would have been completely irrelevant last year if it weren’t for an insane spike in touchdown efficiency. Averaging six touchdowns per year in his career, he exploded to 14 in 2020. Touchdowns are extremely unpredictable and the Vikings still have Dalvin Cook, so I’ll pass.

Diontae Johnson | Pittsburgh Steelers

Do you really want to play the guessing game between the three Steelers WRs every week? With an aging Ben Roethlisberger? In one of the toughest divisions in the league? Count me out.