Last year, I was screaming from the rooftops to draft AJ Dillon at his fantasy football ADP. He was going somewhere in the 11th round of most redrafts – and perhaps a little sooner in startups. My point is that he was a screaming buy in my eyes given the narrative around him that had little to do with his talent.
In short, AJD was faded because of an uncertain future for Aaron Rodgers, a “workhorse” in Aaron Jones ahead of him on the depth chart, and a small sample size of previous success. All of this was narrative.
Of course, Dillon looked like he was still the clear backup after the first half of the season, posting less than 10 PPR points in six of his first nine games. But the back half of the season was different. Dillon averaged14.8 PPR points from Week 10 on. That was good enough for the RB12 in fantasy football. That’s right. You got RB1 production from an RB drafted in the 11th round.
But, okay. An injury to Aaron Jones opened the door a bit for Dillon; even though he only missed two games all season. And, yes, Dillon’s efficiency on the ground plummeted as he lost a full yard off his ypc average. But my point is this:
The consensus fade on a talented player seemed unrealistic because it was based on narrative. It had nothing to do with talent or past production, however small.
You can find value in the later rounds of your fantasy football drafts if you bet on talent.
Before I get into the guy I’m betting on in 2022, let me be clear. I’ve missed on players. Everyone does.
- I bet Ronald Jones would see more opportunity in Tampa or, you know, actually be able to catch the ball.
- That Odell Beckham was sure to improve in Cleveland.
- I even believed Rondale Moore would thrive in Arizona and not post the lowest aDoT of any WR in 2021 at 1.4 yards. The next closest wideout was Braxton Berrios… at 5.1!
We all have misses, but Jones, OBJ and Moore are clearly talented. I’ll take the bet on talent when looking for value every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Better yet, it didn’t cost much to find out if these players would hit.
So who am I looking at to break out from the doldrums of his late round ADP this season and shock the world with an elite fantasy football finish?
Irving Martin Smith, Jr.
Look, TEs aren’t sexy. I get it. And beyond the elite volume guys at the top, most don’t want anything to do with them. But just come along with me while I attempt to convince you otherwise…
Smith’s limited NFL production has been excellent
I understand leading with such a small sample is questionable. You may already be considering scrolling on. But bear with me.
Smith has caught 7 TDs in two healthy NFL seasons – on just 66 receptions.
If we look back to 2019 and 2020, Smith was competing with Kyle Rudolph; an entrenched TE1 in Minnesota and a backbone franchise player for their team and locker room. In his 10 years in Minneapolis, Rudolph put up solid numbers. Smith was drafted to replace him as his ability and production began to decline.
Sharing the snaps with Rudolph, Smith never saw more than 6 targets in his rookie season. He never eclipsed more than 11 PPR points in a game. In fact, he was more often a supreme bust in 2019 than serviceable, making him unusable for fantasy football. In 2020, it was more of the same. Except this time, nagging injuries hindered him midseason. Still, he was clearly an improved player who earned additional playing time and looks when healthy.
In 2020, splitting time with the Vikings TE1 Kyle Rudolph, Smith posted an 11th ranked Average Depth of Target (aDoT), an 8th ranked Yards Per Reception, and was 2nd in QB Rating Per Target at the TE position, per Player Profiler. This means that he was deeper downfield than most when targets and when catching the ball and Kirk Cousins targeted him in high-probability situations, likely either when he worked or was schemed open.
But moreso than Irv’s success in these areas, was his TD rate. With just 30 receptions in 2020, Smith saw the end zone five times. For some perspective, if he would’ve caught as many balls as last year’s TE1 Mark Andrews did (who, to be fair, had the 4th most targets for a TE in history), Smith could’ve scored 17.8 TDs at that rate.
I won’t sit here and claim this will happen. It is an undoubtedly small sample for Smith in a part-time role. But I will tell you that double digit TDs in 2022 is not entirely out of the question for Smith. Here’s why…
Kirk Cousins loves to throw to his TEs
Cousins has been in Minnesota for four seasons now. In that time, he’s fostered this at the TE position:
- Tyler Conklin 2021 – TE16
- Irv Smith 2020 – TE22
- Kyle Rudolph 2019 – TE14
- Kyle Rudolph 2018 – TE7
In 2021, an average Conklin was the TE16 on the back of 87 targets; the 12th most of any TE that season. Irv’s 2020 season beat out Rudolph’s while splitting opportunity nearly down the middle. In 2019, Rudolph struggled to get going early on before putting together some solid games later in the season, with Irv being worked in. And 2018 saw a prime Rudolph dominate. That despite an ankle sprain that limited him significantly over the final three regular season games.
But Cousins’ love for the TE extends back to Washington. In those seasons he started, here are his TE1s #s:
- Vernon Davis 2017 – TE16
- Jordan Reed 2016 – TE9
- Jordan Reed 2015 – TE3
In 2017, Davis came out of nowhere with a career resurgence; staying healthy for most of the season. In 2016, Reed played just 12 games. He was limited in four others from Week 12 on. And in 2015, Reed broke out, finishing as the TE3 in his third NFL season; Cousins’ first as a starter.
Now if you consider the talent, Reed was clearly an elite option; while Davis was already beyond his prime at 33 years old in 2017. Rudolph was 29 in 2018, so still very viable, but his age 30 season saw a steep decline in production with the arrival of Smith. And, presumably, the waning of his ability. In 2021, the 2019 5th round selected in Conklin, who is excessively average in his athleticism and his play, managed to post a 61/593/3 line. That was good enough for fantasy football relevance (kind of) in PPR leagues.
My point here is that Cousins loves the ability to find a big body over the middle. Thus far, scheme hasn’t deterred him much from this preference.
And speaking of scheme…
The Vikings Project to run a new, pass-centric scheme in 2021
With the arrival of Kevin O’Connell, many expect a focus on the passing game. Now the fourth understudy of HC Sean McVay to earn himself a head coaching job, O’Connell is already on record of his desire to “be more multiple” given the personnel at his disposal in Minneapolis. A big part of that will be whether or not Irv Smith, KJ Osborn and/or Ihmir Smith-Marsette can emerge as the third threat in the passing game.
With increased volume should come increased opportunity for Smith. The Vikings are already lining him up all over the formation in team workouts and seem to view him as more than an in-line blocker. In fact, he may be deployed more as a receiver than a traditional tight end. Perhaps more Mike Gesicki, than Kyle Pitts. But at a rate which is valuable for fantasy football at a wide open position.
We know that O’Connell deployed 11 personnel a ton in LA as their offensive coordinator. That led to the Rams WR3 being valuable for fantasy football. Last year, Van Jefferson posted a 50/802/6 line in the Super Bowl-winning offense, while seeing his snaps somewhat limited in six of 17 games. I’m not suggesting Irv will see Van’s aDoT (though his has been quite solid for a TE as previously mentioned), though I am confident in his ability to beat out Osborn and Smith-Marsette. It could easily lead to Van-level production, and likely beyond.
With Cooper Kupp earning a ridiculous 191 targets in 2021 – and Odell Beckham Jr coming in and assuming WR2 duties over the back half of the season – there wasn’t much left to go around in LA. With Justin Jefferson functioning as Kupp in Minnesota, he doesn’t have much room to grow from his massive-in-it’s-own-right 167 targets; borne out of necessity last season. With Adam Thielen and Irv back, I expect the target distribution to even out. That would leave a reasonable 100+ targets for Smith in a productive offense, with the creative O’Connell helming it all.
If we put this all together, Irv Smith has flashed early in his career at the TE position. He’s even done it while splitting reps with a very good veteran player in Kyle Rudolph. He also has the benefit of playing with a very good QB who historically loves to target his tight ends. To top it all off, a healthy Vikings O should see an increase in production; in a new scheme that promises to be more friendly than whatever Mike Zimmer and company were running out there over the past few seasons.
The arrow is pointing up for Smith in fantasy football. At a position where new players routinely ascend the ranks out of nowhere every season, taking a bet on Irv will only cost you a pick in the back round of the 10th according to his 129.8 Underdog ADP. The best part about this bet on Irv is that it won’t cost you your season to find out if we’re right about him.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.