With the news that Michael Thomas is expected to miss the start of the 2021 season while recovering from offseason ankle surgery, a spotlight has been thrust upon the Saints offense. If you’re anything like me, a flood of thoughts entered your mind as you wonder what this setback means for fantasy football; both for Thomas, and the Saints as a whole.
Yet, my first thought when I read the Thomas news was this: there is no way Sean Payton starts Jameis Winston now.
Much has been made of the Taysom Hill/Jameis Winston upcoming camp battle, largely fueled – in my opinion – by Winston’s prior fantasy football success and offseason workout hype-tapes regularly released on social media. Also, have you heard Winston has recently had LASIK surgery to repair his vision? The narratives for Winston to become a viable fantasy asset are many, but it’s largely based on hope rather than reality.
While there are many reasons to like Winston’s bid to become a viable NFL starter again, Sean Payton has had his guy all along. A guy who gets the job done, though makes it look ugly in the process: Taysom Hill.
So let’s take a look at why Hill is the current frontrunner, at least in my mind, to win the New Orleans starting quarterback job this season.
Taysom has recent history on his side
Last season, Drew Brees broke every rib in his body after taking a brutal hit from 49ers defensive end Kentavius Street in Week 10. Surprisingly, Brees was able to come back and compete after just four weeks off. But during his recovery it was Hill, not Winston, who lead the team.
From Weeks 11 to 14, Hill started four games, posting 208 passing yards per game with four TDS and two INTS. But it was the rushing component to his game that helped him lead the Saints to 3-1 record over that span. Hill rushed for an additional 52 yards per game while running for four more scores.
This outburst saw Hill post an average of 20.56 fantasy points per game. While it’s hard to rely on such a small sample, it is noteworthy that Hill would’ve been a back-end QB1 had that rate remained constant throughout a 16-game season. Further, all of this occurred with a healthy Winston holding a clipboard.
Taysom has been told to workout as a quarterback this offseason
It’s very likely that Hill has lost some weight this offseason. That’s because in an impromptu interview on a golf course back in April, Hill admitted to significantly changing his offseason routine. He’s less focused now on being a “Swiss Army knife” and more focused on working as a quarterback, as he states here:
This is the exact Taysom Hill comment I just edited from the video to share here. Found it interesting that he said he shifted his offseason workout focus from “Swiss Army knife” to full-time QB. https://t.co/yr6IQ99MAo pic.twitter.com/LdhMaf484T
— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) April 20, 2021
I could speculate about the results of his regimen change, but what’s more clear to me given this clip is that Hill was told to focus on becoming a full-time QB. Given the lack of weapons that the Saints have at their disposal, cashing in their jack-of-all-trades chip is questionable unless the plan is for Hill to become the starting signal caller.
Which brings me to my next point…
The Saints have an upsetting lack of weapons
As already mentioned, Thomas is out for at least the season’s first month, and Hill is now focused on being a QB. With their 2021 free agency and draft largely prioritizing defense, the Saints are now painfully thin at the skill positions. Running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray should still see plenty of run, but the loss of WR Emmanuel Sanders and TE Jared Cook now mean that the remaining pass catchers need to step up.
The wide receiver corps is now lead by Tre’Quan Smith for the foreseeable future, while a combination of Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey should see action in September; that is, unless and until the Saints sign more talent. At tight end, Adam Trautman could be poised to breakout beyond what has already been projected for his 2021 fantasy football season.
Given all the tumult, head coach Sean Payton is once again tasked with designing an offense that can keep this team competitive. A renewed focus on the rushing attack and defense seems to be in the cards and, assuming that’s the case, Hill is better suited to create space as a threat to run himself.
Jameis wasn’t exactly a hot commodity in free agency
The other consideration here is that Winston was brought back to New Orleans on a one-year, team-friendly deal after testing free agency. Since no one was willing to pay more than $5 million for the former #1 overall draft pick, Winston’s best, and potentially only option was to try his luck in a system with which he is already familiar.
Winston’s bid to compete for a starting gig is now an effort to resurrect his career; which then makes the workout videos that seem to drop every other week make more sense. To me, the efforts of his team scream more of desperation then of locked-in starting QB.
All reports from the media and Payton last season are that Winston has been a model teammate and an amazing locker room presence. He’s done and said all the right things. Sounds to me like Winston is the ideal backup quarterback should he lose out to Hill.
Given all of the above, I’d be surprised if Jameis is given the keys to Sean Payton’s offense in September. With Thomas out and a bolstered defense, the running game is bound to become the highlight of the early part of the season for the Saints.
And, assuming that’s the case, Taysom Hill is the quarterback to own in fantasy, especially considering he’s capable of putting up QB1 numbers for fantasy football with his skill as a runner.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.